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Home > Boards > US OTC > Medical - Drugs > Elite Pharmaceuticals (ELTP)

This closing just goes to show exactly how

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Mazeppa Member Profile
 
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Mazeppa   Friday, 05/19/17 04:36:47 PM
Re: None
Post # of 271538 
This closing just goes to show exactly how artificial the sp of ELTP really is, and subject to the whims of the MM's. Yesterday's close, on maybe a sale of $40k of stock actually impacted the market cap of the company for about 20-30 million dollars. A sale of 250k shares represents approximately 1/4000 of the O/S, and hardly a characteristic of "a dump" signifying that insiders are fleeing in anticipation of "bad" BE results.

Personally, I see it as far more likely that a trader who scored on the run up from the .13 level simply locked in a substantial percentage gain for themselves. There is always the possibility that said individual simply found what they thought was a better investment for their money, simply needed the cash, or may have even decided ELTP was not a good bet in their own opinion, to which they are entitled.There are even those that make money by trading bio stocks a few weeks before any type of assessment news with impact is scheduled and playing the usual run-up without risking a decision. It does not, however, signify an insider run-for-the-exit based on bad news--risking breaking insider trading laws to save literally a fraction of their own positions makes no sense. But, to read more into such a sale of likely one person (or several) for a small amount, or some subsequent movement still at low volume at a lower level following a significant run is meaningless. Pretty clear the MM has a lot of say, especially given O/S of almost a billion.

I'm not a chartist by any means, and perhaps this point can be elaborated upon...but one thing I have noticed about large "pops" is that it is usually first preceded by a sharp drop a day/week before. There may be many reasons, but the walk away point for me is not to trust such downward pull following the scale of rise we had. We're on the trader land of the OTC, with a stock that has several irons in the fire of which PR's can help or hurt significantly...or not at all.

I could be wrong, and hate the "guessing" game, but personally, I'm expecting a positive BE, lots of subsequent volatility, then back to the low .30's range...my rationale based on how we traded up to about .40 right up to the day before the CRL last July. But--then again, the MM let this run to .97 on a lame (compared to a Priority Review designated decision) internal valuation report, so suppose the MM can let this run to whatever he essentially wants. Could be well over a buck. But, what seems pretty consistent with this MM is he really likes stable ranges. Lets it pop here and there, and surely profits well from doing so (this one very strategic in what he appears to do--not very overt...usually), but mostly once he gets it at a given level, never lets it stray very far--maybe a penny or two. That's why IMO, the move...not a one-day occurrence and flop, was something with some legs behind it. But without inside knowledge of the results likely a combo of traders, and folks taking positions as the company is at the precipice of a series of events that each can potentially affect the material value of the firm.

Or, it's all just noise. Guess we'll have to guess. Hope it doesn't suck. Nice close. GLTA--

Maz


"Beware of missing chances; otherwise it may be altogether too late some day" -- Franz Liszt
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