Saturday, May 13, 2017 3:23:08 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/11 2017 EOD
Again we have contradicting indications between the conventional TA and my stuff, and even within the conventional TA stuff.
I'll go with my stuff, after discounting one of the items (see below), and say we're entering short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias.
The simple chart stuff - EMAs behavior, low/high patterns, volume, ... - is beginning to suggest a bottom may be (near?) in while the oscillators and SMAs, being heavily influenced by the close, gave up yesterday's oscillator gains and look decidedly more bearish today. The SMAs have a longer window and showed less effect, just remaining in decline.
The short-term descending resistance (falling orange line) is still applying downward pressure and would lead one to doubt any bottoming/bullish suggestions. However, volume is a very important consideration and we've had reducing volume for three consecutive days now, suggesting that strength in the down direction is waning.
All this leads me to discount the oscillators and believe the entry into short-term consolidation has begun, where we will likely not see another significant move lower than what we've seen already. Some mix of sideways, up, down should be expected sans a catalyst.
My unconventional stuff also had one conflicting indication, caused by the early high of the day making an excessive spread. However, close examination of the data lead me to discount that spread (see below), which eliminated the conflict. That left those items reasonably in agreement that we had a possibility, but not yet a likelihood, of a reversal. That is to say, they suggest the bottom is either in or very no being so and the most likely near-term action is entry into consolidation, with a mild negative bias, of course.
I'm going to depart, again, from the data though and say I think a mild positive bias is more likely. Why? Simple. If we are entering consolidation we can't continue straight lower now - to do so would not be characteristic of the short-term consolidation I think we are entering (we could continue lower as part of the medium or long-term consolidation though - if we were in one or both of those). So the consequence of that belief in entering short-term consolidation is I see at worst a sideways movement and that should lead to a near-term mild positive bias if we are entering short-term consolidation.
There was a PR for A Wastewater Treatment Plant C-600S Upgrade in Upstate NY.
The first 48 minutes of trade were the day's strongest, in terms of price, volume and buy percentages. Common, no? Also common, we then tanked, going 3 cents below the $0.69 high established, and entered the usual drop, flattish, drop, flattish, ... as a general trend (seen mostly in the movement of the highs - the lows were relatively more stable) and fished the day with the last 15 minutes having high price volatility as price tried to move back up but failed never getting past $0.6676. This led to a close only a 17/100ths of a penny above the low of the day. It was all a generally low-volume affair with the usual minute or few burst of higher volume being responsible for most of the larger price movements.
My immediate first thought was I guess that means SP will tank. We had a nice change - it didn't do that.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 8:40 was 8K:400 $0.51/$0.70 and just before open was 100:1.3K $0.6301/$0.70.
09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 189 sell for $0.66 & $0.68 x 2. B/a just after open was 2.9K:29K $0.66/8. Then all the following traded $0.68: 9:31's 100, 9:32's 200, 9:32's b/a 3.1K:3.1K $0.66/8, 9:33's 100, 9:34's 200, 9:35's 100, 9:36's 10, 9:37's 100, 9:38's 200, 9:40's b/a 6.1K:578 $0.66/8, 9:40's 200, and 9:41's 100. Then came 9:42's 697 $0.6601 (497)/00/$0.68, 9:43's b/a 255:2.9K $0.6601/$0.68, 9:44's 100 $0.68, 9:45's 300 $0.68/$0.6610/$0.68, 9:46's 100 $0.68, 9:47's b/a 265:2.7K $0.6001/$0.68, 9:48's 100 $0.68, 9:49's 300 $0.68, 9:50's 1.5K $0.68/$0.6640/24/16/12/$0.68, 9:51's 37.3K $0.6780/92/$0.68 (28.3K incl 25.2K blk)/$0.6602 (6.9K)/$0.6751/$0.6602/$0.6751, 9:52's 200 $0.6602/$0.6751, 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751, 9:54's b/a 455:500 $0.6602/$0.68, 9:55's 200 $0.6701, 9:57's 100 $0.6701, 9:59's 330 $0.6603/$0.6701/96, and the period ended on 10:00's 375 $0.68/$0.6636.
10:01-10:16 began extremely low/no-volume $0.67/8, with slowly falling highs, on 10:01's 100 $0.6701. B/a at 10:03 was 255:400 $0.6602/$0.68, 10:08 7.4K:6.5K $0.6700/99. The period ended on 10:16's 100 $0.6786.
10:17-10:42 began with b/a at 10:17 of 7.1K:300 $0.6700/99. After 10:17's 16.6K $0.6706/00 (400)/$0.6602 (600), 10:18-20's 10K $0.6651/02/43, 600 $0.6654/98, and 6.2K $0.66 (6K)/03/00 there were no trades through 10:27. B/a at 10:20 was 6.1K:1.5K $0.6600/99. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6599/$0.66 after 10:28's 16.4K $0.6600/49/00/49/00 (14.9K incl 13.5K blk) and 10:30's 2.4K $0.6595/99/$0.66. B/a at 10:33 was 3.8K:1K $0.6500/99. The period ended on 10:42's100 $0.66.
10:43-12:12 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6502/$0.6651, with very slowly rising lows and slowly falling highs, on 10:43's 250 $0.651. B/a at 10:45 was 500:200 $0.6501/$0.67, 11:03 400:30 $0.6501/$0.6634 (offer backed by presented 100 $0.67), 11:17 300:190 $0.6501/$0.6634. By 11:20 the range was $0.6520/99 but the high reset to $0.6610 by 11:27. B/a at 11:32 was 412:200 $0.6520/$0.67, 11:47 400:200 $0.6520/$0.67. Price was interrupted by 11:49's 1.1K $0.6699. B/a at 11:50 was 400:100 $0.6522/$0.67. 11:51-12:03 traded exclusively $0.6611 with 100-400 share minutes. B/a at 12:02 was 1K:100 $0.6522/$0.67. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:05's 1.6K $0.6693 (1.5K)/$0.6611. B/a at 12:07 1K:100 $0.6522/$0.67. The period ended on 12:12's 100 $0.6611.
12:13-14:30 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6522/$0.6611 on 12:13's 2.6K $0.66. B/a at 12:18 was 900:6K $0.6522/99. 12:28 began moving the highs up. Volume was interrupted by 12:44's 11.4K $0.6600/$0.6599 (4K)/$0.6600. The move up topped on 12:49's 410 $0.6607/61 and the highs began falling. B/a at 12:34 was 300:100 $0.6600/50, 12:47 400:200 $0.6522/$0.6650. Volume was interrupted by 12:50's 4.6K $0.6523. By 13:00 range was collapsed to $0.6523/66. B/a at 13:02 was 5:3.1K $0.6563/94 (bids backed by presented 5.8K $0.65), 13:21 5:800 $0.6563/99 (bids backed by presented $0.6532 x 5, $0.6526 x 5, $0.6524 x 100), 13:32 5:3.1K $0.6563/99 (bids backed by presented $0.6532 x 5, $0.6526 x 5, $0.6524 x 100), 14:29 5.5K:3.5K $0.6500/50 (offers falling). The period ended on 14:30's 100 $0.6547.
14:31-15:11, after one no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6500/47 on 14:32's 400 $0.6547 (200)/00. B/a at 14:37 was 5:2.8K $0.6527/47 (bids backed by presented 5.5K $0.65), 14:49 5.2K:3.1K $0.6500/48, 15:02 5:2.9K $0.6535/48 (bids backed by presented 4.7K $0.65). The period ended on 15:11's 105 $0.6529.
15:12-15:33 began very low-volume $0.6500/6 on 15:12's 6.9K $0.6541/20 (5.1K)/19/29/19. B/a at 15:17 was 2.6K:500 $0.6500/5. The period ended on 15:33's 300 $0.6504/5/6.
15:34-15:52 began an extremely low-volume climb into the close on 15:34's 100 $0.6550. B/a at 15:35 was 5:300 $0.6503/49 (bids backed by presented 4.6K $0.65), 15:45 5:700 $0.6503/48 (bids backed by presented 3.6K $0.65). 15:45's 610 hit $0.6549/50/88, 15:46's 200 hit $0.66, 15:48's 100 hit $0.6624, 15:49's 100 hit $0.6652. The period ended on 15:52's 116 $0.6652.
15:53-15:59 began very low-volume $0.6500/50 (most highs $0.6547) on 15:53's 4.2K $0.6652/51/52/76/00/$0.6500/$0.66/$0.6550/00. B/a at 15:55 was 3.1K:590 $0.6500/50 and volume was interrupted by 15:55's 10.3K $0.6500 (10K blk)/47 (200)/00. The period and day ended on 15:59's 3K $0.6547/0047/00/49/34/17 and the official close was the last 15:59 $0.6517 x 100 sell because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade).
There were 2 AH odd-lot trades: 16:29 $0.632 x 15, $0.63 x 13
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 77,885, 39.47% of day's volume, with a $0.6654 VWAP. For the volume, the count and percentage of day's volume both seem high, but for the price action, not so much so. A few "larger larger trades" pushed the percentage up.
The VWAP is marginally above the day's $0.6635. With the improvement in the buy percentage (see below), this makes sense (for a change!). I'm assuming the PR induced some bullishness in the retailers and that accounted for both the buy percentage improvement and the concomitant higher VWAP in the larger trades.
Yesterday, about the larger trades, I said { We do know that the next couple of days will tell us if these were good purchases or not. } So far those purchases, with a $0.6463 VWAP, don't look bad. If those folks were selling early today they made at least some burger and fries money. If they are longer-term holders, the jury is still out.
Today was an improvement from yesterday as our ending buy percentage moved from yesterday's 37.21%, which generally assures there's little likely near-term upside, to an area that says we could see some upside, but it's not into the "likely" area yet. There was also improvement in the price range as the lows today hung in at $0.65, supporting yesterday's top-of-post summary of { Well, data slightly to the contrary, today I'm settling on entering consolidation with a mild negative bias. } I also mentioned I'm frequently too early and often wrong. ATM the "mild negative bias" is absent as we had a VWAP up 1.99%. We'll have to wait and see. I would not be at all disgruntled if that component of my reading was completely off base.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
That would also fit with my entering short-term consolidation thesis and yesterday's { For the third day, the movements don't bode well, but we have volume continuing to decline, which does suggest the strength of the drop is lessening. This can be seen too in that all movements but the low are improved over the prior day's. The low may have been a sign of capitulation by some folks that had been trying to hang in or stop-loss triggers getting hit. }
On my minimal chart, as with yesterday, { we continued the trend of trading below the short-term descending resistance (descending orange line), ... } but for { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 }, causing a second consecutive day's high to touch the line, thanks to the fact it's descending.
Price stopped "pushing" the lower experimental 13-period Bollinger band limit after nine consecutive days. Trading range was again completely, and after 10:18 substantially, below the falling mid-point, $0.7055.
Both the fast and slow EMAs continue to decline with the fast below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0432 (was $0.0444). This is the second consecutive contraction of the gap, again due to the fast EMA's descent rate slowing.
Yesterday, while discussing whether I continued to think we might be entering consolidation, apparently contradicted by yesterday's low of $0.6301 violating my thought the low had to hold in around the $0.65/6 level, I ended with { ... But looking at the close of $0.66 and the way it was produced - a general upward trend from the 10:44 intra-day low and a solid trend of rising lows from about 12:30 onward - along with a good improvement in buy percentage makes me think there's a real chance that the turn is beginning. I think tomorrow will give us a clue as to that. }
Well, we got a clue. Is it the right one? With the low and close both >= $0.65, I think the chances are good we will hold here through a short-term consolidation. This assessment is bolstered by the volume reducing for the third consecutive day. Adding in a lower high with a relatively flat low produces a pattern that does look like short-term consolidation is beginning.
I wrapped up this section with { The volume again declined today and is now low enough that I think it allows that we may have bottomed. If I was at the table I'd be pondering shoving a few chips into the pot for a short-term play. I would keep the bet small though as there's always the possibility that the ATM would come back into play. } OK. Maybe a slightly larger bet is now warranted. Maybe one more day before we can be more confident though.
On my one-year chart, for the tenth consecutive day, trading range was completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Looking at just this one could decide that patience on shoving the chips in was a better decision. Today our high touched the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6893 though but keep in mind it was that { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 } that caused the touch and we came nowhere near it again.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution (minimal), RSI, momentum, Williams %R (barely oversold now), and full stochastic (still oversold). Deterioration occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), which entered oversold, and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in RSI (still oversold), accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (still oversold), and ADX-related (in aggregate nearer flattish though). Improvement occurred only in full stochastic (still barely oversold). The full stochastic has made a positive cross though with the fast component (%K) crossing above the slow component (%D) and will likely exit oversold tomorrow, barring any big negative behavior.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6253 and $0.7857 ($0.6364 and $0.7889 yesterday), continued diverging as both limits declined, the lower faster than the upper. The mid-point is falling.
All in, that lower close did a number on most of the oscillators, causing them to give up much of the gains they made yesterday.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage is just outside the low end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage ended in the range that says some positive movement is possible, although not yet highly likely. The buy percentage was the highest we've seen sine 4/27's ~47%. Can't say that suggests anything because the short percentage was high that day and what followed was weakening. Today's lower short and higher buy percentages offers some hope for near-term appreciation even though not yet suggesting it is likely near-term.
The spread contracted but is still wide enough to suggest near-term movement is likely. Being in, or maybe at the bottom of, a down trend, it would suggest weakening movement if there is any. However, we need to keep in mind what produced it - that { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 }. There were, including that minute, only four trades totaling 700 shares above $0.68 - all in the first 48 minutes, the high price part of the day. If we used $0.68 as the high our spread drops to 4.62%, a range more akin to consolidation, although still a bit wide.
The VWAP gained enough to get back up near the 5/8 VWAP of $0.6684. let's hope this is the start of a trend of no lower VWAPs.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, improved from yesterday's 17 negatives and 7 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 04/06 is -$0.1175, -15.04%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6459%, -0.7513%, -0.5928%, -0.6491%, -0.4703%, -0.5319%, -0.4198%, -0.2739%, -0.1888%, and -0.1311%.
We need to see those averages reverse that downward trajectory.
All in, percentages for short sales and buys with an improved VWAP suggest at least nearing an end to the down leg when combined with falling volume. The spread would be a big negative but for what caused it, mentioned above, and with the suggested adjustment is closer to neutral, suggesting consolidation.
For this portion I'll go with near-term consolidation with (as is most common for me, it seems) a mild weakening bias as most likely.
Bill
Again we have contradicting indications between the conventional TA and my stuff, and even within the conventional TA stuff.
I'll go with my stuff, after discounting one of the items (see below), and say we're entering short-term consolidation with a mild positive bias.
The simple chart stuff - EMAs behavior, low/high patterns, volume, ... - is beginning to suggest a bottom may be (near?) in while the oscillators and SMAs, being heavily influenced by the close, gave up yesterday's oscillator gains and look decidedly more bearish today. The SMAs have a longer window and showed less effect, just remaining in decline.
The short-term descending resistance (falling orange line) is still applying downward pressure and would lead one to doubt any bottoming/bullish suggestions. However, volume is a very important consideration and we've had reducing volume for three consecutive days now, suggesting that strength in the down direction is waning.
All this leads me to discount the oscillators and believe the entry into short-term consolidation has begun, where we will likely not see another significant move lower than what we've seen already. Some mix of sideways, up, down should be expected sans a catalyst.
My unconventional stuff also had one conflicting indication, caused by the early high of the day making an excessive spread. However, close examination of the data lead me to discount that spread (see below), which eliminated the conflict. That left those items reasonably in agreement that we had a possibility, but not yet a likelihood, of a reversal. That is to say, they suggest the bottom is either in or very no being so and the most likely near-term action is entry into consolidation, with a mild negative bias, of course.
I'm going to depart, again, from the data though and say I think a mild positive bias is more likely. Why? Simple. If we are entering consolidation we can't continue straight lower now - to do so would not be characteristic of the short-term consolidation I think we are entering (we could continue lower as part of the medium or long-term consolidation though - if we were in one or both of those). So the consequence of that belief in entering short-term consolidation is I see at worst a sideways movement and that should lead to a near-term mild positive bias if we are entering short-term consolidation.
There was a PR for A Wastewater Treatment Plant C-600S Upgrade in Upstate NY.
The first 48 minutes of trade were the day's strongest, in terms of price, volume and buy percentages. Common, no? Also common, we then tanked, going 3 cents below the $0.69 high established, and entered the usual drop, flattish, drop, flattish, ... as a general trend (seen mostly in the movement of the highs - the lows were relatively more stable) and fished the day with the last 15 minutes having high price volatility as price tried to move back up but failed never getting past $0.6676. This led to a close only a 17/100ths of a penny above the low of the day. It was all a generally low-volume affair with the usual minute or few burst of higher volume being responsible for most of the larger price movements.
My immediate first thought was I guess that means SP will tank. We had a nice change - it didn't do that.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 8:40 was 8K:400 $0.51/$0.70 and just before open was 100:1.3K $0.6301/$0.70.
09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 189 sell for $0.66 & $0.68 x 2. B/a just after open was 2.9K:29K $0.66/8. Then all the following traded $0.68: 9:31's 100, 9:32's 200, 9:32's b/a 3.1K:3.1K $0.66/8, 9:33's 100, 9:34's 200, 9:35's 100, 9:36's 10, 9:37's 100, 9:38's 200, 9:40's b/a 6.1K:578 $0.66/8, 9:40's 200, and 9:41's 100. Then came 9:42's 697 $0.6601 (497)/00/$0.68, 9:43's b/a 255:2.9K $0.6601/$0.68, 9:44's 100 $0.68, 9:45's 300 $0.68/$0.6610/$0.68, 9:46's 100 $0.68, 9:47's b/a 265:2.7K $0.6001/$0.68, 9:48's 100 $0.68, 9:49's 300 $0.68, 9:50's 1.5K $0.68/$0.6640/24/16/12/$0.68, 9:51's 37.3K $0.6780/92/$0.68 (28.3K incl 25.2K blk)/$0.6602 (6.9K)/$0.6751/$0.6602/$0.6751, 9:52's 200 $0.6602/$0.6751, 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751, 9:54's b/a 455:500 $0.6602/$0.68, 9:55's 200 $0.6701, 9:57's 100 $0.6701, 9:59's 330 $0.6603/$0.6701/96, and the period ended on 10:00's 375 $0.68/$0.6636.
10:01-10:16 began extremely low/no-volume $0.67/8, with slowly falling highs, on 10:01's 100 $0.6701. B/a at 10:03 was 255:400 $0.6602/$0.68, 10:08 7.4K:6.5K $0.6700/99. The period ended on 10:16's 100 $0.6786.
10:17-10:42 began with b/a at 10:17 of 7.1K:300 $0.6700/99. After 10:17's 16.6K $0.6706/00 (400)/$0.6602 (600), 10:18-20's 10K $0.6651/02/43, 600 $0.6654/98, and 6.2K $0.66 (6K)/03/00 there were no trades through 10:27. B/a at 10:20 was 6.1K:1.5K $0.6600/99. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6599/$0.66 after 10:28's 16.4K $0.6600/49/00/49/00 (14.9K incl 13.5K blk) and 10:30's 2.4K $0.6595/99/$0.66. B/a at 10:33 was 3.8K:1K $0.6500/99. The period ended on 10:42's100 $0.66.
10:43-12:12 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6502/$0.6651, with very slowly rising lows and slowly falling highs, on 10:43's 250 $0.651. B/a at 10:45 was 500:200 $0.6501/$0.67, 11:03 400:30 $0.6501/$0.6634 (offer backed by presented 100 $0.67), 11:17 300:190 $0.6501/$0.6634. By 11:20 the range was $0.6520/99 but the high reset to $0.6610 by 11:27. B/a at 11:32 was 412:200 $0.6520/$0.67, 11:47 400:200 $0.6520/$0.67. Price was interrupted by 11:49's 1.1K $0.6699. B/a at 11:50 was 400:100 $0.6522/$0.67. 11:51-12:03 traded exclusively $0.6611 with 100-400 share minutes. B/a at 12:02 was 1K:100 $0.6522/$0.67. Volume and price were interrupted by 12:05's 1.6K $0.6693 (1.5K)/$0.6611. B/a at 12:07 1K:100 $0.6522/$0.67. The period ended on 12:12's 100 $0.6611.
12:13-14:30 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6522/$0.6611 on 12:13's 2.6K $0.66. B/a at 12:18 was 900:6K $0.6522/99. 12:28 began moving the highs up. Volume was interrupted by 12:44's 11.4K $0.6600/$0.6599 (4K)/$0.6600. The move up topped on 12:49's 410 $0.6607/61 and the highs began falling. B/a at 12:34 was 300:100 $0.6600/50, 12:47 400:200 $0.6522/$0.6650. Volume was interrupted by 12:50's 4.6K $0.6523. By 13:00 range was collapsed to $0.6523/66. B/a at 13:02 was 5:3.1K $0.6563/94 (bids backed by presented 5.8K $0.65), 13:21 5:800 $0.6563/99 (bids backed by presented $0.6532 x 5, $0.6526 x 5, $0.6524 x 100), 13:32 5:3.1K $0.6563/99 (bids backed by presented $0.6532 x 5, $0.6526 x 5, $0.6524 x 100), 14:29 5.5K:3.5K $0.6500/50 (offers falling). The period ended on 14:30's 100 $0.6547.
14:31-15:11, after one no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6500/47 on 14:32's 400 $0.6547 (200)/00. B/a at 14:37 was 5:2.8K $0.6527/47 (bids backed by presented 5.5K $0.65), 14:49 5.2K:3.1K $0.6500/48, 15:02 5:2.9K $0.6535/48 (bids backed by presented 4.7K $0.65). The period ended on 15:11's 105 $0.6529.
15:12-15:33 began very low-volume $0.6500/6 on 15:12's 6.9K $0.6541/20 (5.1K)/19/29/19. B/a at 15:17 was 2.6K:500 $0.6500/5. The period ended on 15:33's 300 $0.6504/5/6.
15:34-15:52 began an extremely low-volume climb into the close on 15:34's 100 $0.6550. B/a at 15:35 was 5:300 $0.6503/49 (bids backed by presented 4.6K $0.65), 15:45 5:700 $0.6503/48 (bids backed by presented 3.6K $0.65). 15:45's 610 hit $0.6549/50/88, 15:46's 200 hit $0.66, 15:48's 100 hit $0.6624, 15:49's 100 hit $0.6652. The period ended on 15:52's 116 $0.6652.
15:53-15:59 began very low-volume $0.6500/50 (most highs $0.6547) on 15:53's 4.2K $0.6652/51/52/76/00/$0.6500/$0.66/$0.6550/00. B/a at 15:55 was 3.1K:590 $0.6500/50 and volume was interrupted by 15:55's 10.3K $0.6500 (10K blk)/47 (200)/00. The period and day ended on 15:59's 3K $0.6547/0047/00/49/34/17 and the official close was the last 15:59 $0.6517 x 100 sell because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade).
There were 2 AH odd-lot trades: 16:29 $0.632 x 15, $0.63 x 13
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 77,885, 39.47% of day's volume, with a $0.6654 VWAP. For the volume, the count and percentage of day's volume both seem high, but for the price action, not so much so. A few "larger larger trades" pushed the percentage up.
The VWAP is marginally above the day's $0.6635. With the improvement in the buy percentage (see below), this makes sense (for a change!). I'm assuming the PR induced some bullishness in the retailers and that accounted for both the buy percentage improvement and the concomitant higher VWAP in the larger trades.
Yesterday, about the larger trades, I said { We do know that the next couple of days will tell us if these were good purchases or not. } So far those purchases, with a $0.6463 VWAP, don't look bad. If those folks were selling early today they made at least some burger and fries money. If they are longer-term holders, the jury is still out.
Note the first 43 minutes had ~49% of days volume with the highest buy percentages and VWAPs. After that it was generally a grind lower for both buy percentages and VWAPs, which were reasonably well correlated. It's a pattern often seen in this symbol that the highs, and best buy percentages, occur in the early part of the day and are followed by a general weakening. Not always, of course, but certainly not uncommon.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:00 43911 $0.6600 $0.6900 $29,634.64 $0.6749 22.25% 72.19% Incl 09:51 $0.6800 25,220 $0.6602 6,500
10:16 4250 $0.6700 $0.6800 $2,865.77 $0.6743 2.15% 69.98%
10:42 48937 $0.6595 $0.6850 $32,631.55 $0.6668 24.80% 57.52% Incl 10:17 $0.6800 4,565 10:28 $0.6600 13,500
12:12 17365 $0.6502 $0.6699 $11,475.88 $0.6609 8.80% 53.19%
14:30 38416 $0.6522 $0.6661 $25,266.90 $0.6577 19.47% 50.05% Incl 12:44 $0.6599 4,000 $0.6600 4,500
12:50 $0.6523 4,600
15:11 4850 $0.6500 $0.6549 $3,168.38 $0.6533 2.46% 50.66%
15:33 13555 $0.6500 $0.6541 $8,826.69 $0.6512 6.87% 49.52% Incl 15:12 $0.6520 5,000
15:52 2800 $0.6548 $0.6652 $1,842.89 $0.6582 1.42% 50.13%
15:59 19545 $0.6500 $0.6676 $12,768.30 $0.6533 9.90% 47.71% Incl 15:55 $0.6500 10,000
Today was an improvement from yesterday as our ending buy percentage moved from yesterday's 37.21%, which generally assures there's little likely near-term upside, to an area that says we could see some upside, but it's not into the "likely" area yet. There was also improvement in the price range as the lows today hung in at $0.65, supporting yesterday's top-of-post summary of { Well, data slightly to the contrary, today I'm settling on entering consolidation with a mild negative bias. } I also mentioned I'm frequently too early and often wrong. ATM the "mild negative bias" is absent as we had a VWAP up 1.99%. We'll have to wait and see. I would not be at all disgruntled if that component of my reading was completely off base.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Hallelujah! We broke the nasty trend for at least a day. Yes, the open and close were still down, likely due to little manipulation attempted, based on yesterday's lack of late AH trades, closing trades far above the last few minutes range, etc., but we got a better low, high and volume. That last item is "better" because we are in a down trend and lower volume suggests it might be running out of steam.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.18% 3.16% 0.17% -1.26% -22.07%
Prior -0.17% -3.06% -0.17% 0.46% -14.72%
That would also fit with my entering short-term consolidation thesis and yesterday's { For the third day, the movements don't bode well, but we have volume continuing to decline, which does suggest the strength of the drop is lessening. This can be seen too in that all movements but the low are improved over the prior day's. The low may have been a sign of capitulation by some folks that had been trying to hang in or stop-loss triggers getting hit. }
On my minimal chart, as with yesterday, { we continued the trend of trading below the short-term descending resistance (descending orange line), ... } but for { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 }, causing a second consecutive day's high to touch the line, thanks to the fact it's descending.
Price stopped "pushing" the lower experimental 13-period Bollinger band limit after nine consecutive days. Trading range was again completely, and after 10:18 substantially, below the falling mid-point, $0.7055.
Both the fast and slow EMAs continue to decline with the fast below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0432 (was $0.0444). This is the second consecutive contraction of the gap, again due to the fast EMA's descent rate slowing.
Yesterday, while discussing whether I continued to think we might be entering consolidation, apparently contradicted by yesterday's low of $0.6301 violating my thought the low had to hold in around the $0.65/6 level, I ended with { ... But looking at the close of $0.66 and the way it was produced - a general upward trend from the 10:44 intra-day low and a solid trend of rising lows from about 12:30 onward - along with a good improvement in buy percentage makes me think there's a real chance that the turn is beginning. I think tomorrow will give us a clue as to that. }
Well, we got a clue. Is it the right one? With the low and close both >= $0.65, I think the chances are good we will hold here through a short-term consolidation. This assessment is bolstered by the volume reducing for the third consecutive day. Adding in a lower high with a relatively flat low produces a pattern that does look like short-term consolidation is beginning.
I wrapped up this section with { The volume again declined today and is now low enough that I think it allows that we may have bottomed. If I was at the table I'd be pondering shoving a few chips into the pot for a short-term play. I would keep the bet small though as there's always the possibility that the ATM would come back into play. } OK. Maybe a slightly larger bet is now warranted. Maybe one more day before we can be more confident though.
On my one-year chart, for the tenth consecutive day, trading range was completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Looking at just this one could decide that patience on shoving the chips in was a better decision. Today our high touched the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6893 though but keep in mind it was that { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 } that caused the touch and we came nowhere near it again.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution (minimal), RSI, momentum, Williams %R (barely oversold now), and full stochastic (still oversold). Deterioration occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), which entered oversold, and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in RSI (still oversold), accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (still oversold), and ADX-related (in aggregate nearer flattish though). Improvement occurred only in full stochastic (still barely oversold). The full stochastic has made a positive cross though with the fast component (%K) crossing above the slow component (%D) and will likely exit oversold tomorrow, barring any big negative behavior.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6253 and $0.7857 ($0.6364 and $0.7889 yesterday), continued diverging as both limits declined, the lower faster than the upper. The mid-point is falling.
All in, that lower close did a number on most of the oscillators, causing them to give up much of the gains they made yesterday.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage is just outside the low end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage ended in the range that says some positive movement is possible, although not yet highly likely. The buy percentage was the highest we've seen sine 4/27's ~47%. Can't say that suggests anything because the short percentage was high that day and what followed was weakening. Today's lower short and higher buy percentages offers some hope for near-term appreciation even though not yet suggesting it is likely near-term.
The spread contracted but is still wide enough to suggest near-term movement is likely. Being in, or maybe at the bottom of, a down trend, it would suggest weakening movement if there is any. However, we need to keep in mind what produced it - that { 9:53's 500 $0.6893/$0.69/$0.6751 }. There were, including that minute, only four trades totaling 700 shares above $0.68 - all in the first 48 minutes, the high price part of the day. If we used $0.68 as the high our spread drops to 4.62%, a range more akin to consolidation, although still a bit wide.
The VWAP gained enough to get back up near the 5/8 VWAP of $0.6684. let's hope this is the start of a trend of no lower VWAPs.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, improved from yesterday's 17 negatives and 7 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 04/06 is -$0.1175, -15.04%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6459%, -0.7513%, -0.5928%, -0.6491%, -0.4703%, -0.5319%, -0.4198%, -0.2739%, -0.1888%, and -0.1311%.
We need to see those averages reverse that downward trajectory.
All in, percentages for short sales and buys with an improved VWAP suggest at least nearing an end to the down leg when combined with falling volume. The spread would be a big negative but for what caused it, mentioned above, and with the suggested adjustment is closer to neutral, suggesting consolidation.
For this portion I'll go with near-term consolidation with (as is most common for me, it seems) a mild weakening bias as most likely.
Bill
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