They can't even pay the rent in the US. Or the former US employees. Due to strict capital controls in China IMO.
But a going private offer is a special transaction, going through a special bank. IMO.
Parent owns 83.25% of the stock.
Ms Wu, who was fired, and initially removed from the BOD, owns 6.9%. The rest of us own 9.85%
Parent doesn't get to vote if they want to buy us out. And I'm assuming that Ms. Wu wants out. Wouldn't you, after you got fired?
If there is a going private offer, they need need 50% of the votes. So that's Ms. Wu and another 8.375 - 6.9 = 1.475% of the votes. They need her "signature", that's why they kept her on the board. She is basically representing our interests now, although that has to be the duty of the entire (independent) BOD.
If they don't report financials for 2016 then that will drive up the price. And we are getting closer to fair value = appraised value. It's a tool for them to reduce value. Or it could be a prerequisite. That's why I think they will file. And are planning to file. The remaining question is, what price will Ms. Wu settle for? I don't know. Either party could be playing a delay game here. But I think in the end, we should expect something like $3.50/share.
$3.50 x 16.75% x 157.17M shares = $93M.
They already have the money. And then some.
Now, if you try this 10 times you will probably get it wrong 9 times. But I can't see it any other way. Something like this has to be the outcome.
