Hose-
So if Syncora's Surplus Notes (Debt) - trades up - implies the Credit Worthiness is improving... as well as ... prospects for the future... much the same as Stock price.
Most Market Participants are only Equity players - so only watch Stocks.
Debt is important... if it is impaired - then that implies the Equity may well be Worthless, or very little value.
Syncora's Surplus note traded in the 60s then gradually rose...
For reference
August 11, 2016
SYNCORA SYCRF
Short Term Surplus Notes 5s 12/11
Bid 80 1/2
Ask 83 1/2
Long Term 6s 12/24
Bid 77 1/2
ASk 80 1/2
Fast forward to today
Today
SYNCORA SYCRF
Short Term Notes 5s 12/11
Bid 103.75
x
Ask 105.75
Long Term Notes 6s 12/24
Bid 95.75 x
ask 97.75
==== Ergo the trend is your friend -- here as the Credit is improving... in the Credit Markets.... if Credit Markets 'Fill in' - Equity/Stock should increase
Nov 29 2016 > Jan5 2017 > Feb7 2017 > May 3rd 2017
S/T 93x95 > 95-x98 > 96.6x99.5 > 103.75 x 105.75
L/T 84x87 > 87x90 > 88.5x91.5 > 95.75 x 97.75
========
Further Lets Talk ---- more distressed names
Say SEARS ... i don't know just picked randomly.... you can see its capital structure has alot of impairment
TODAY == holding steady recently --- but still very depressed, indicating the Equity -- is now an option or not in the money as the Debt is Underwater...
SHLD SEARS PRICING UPDATE
Posted on May 3, 2017
Security B Px A Px A YTW A Spd Amt
Out Payment Rank Moody Notes
SHLD 6? 17 93.750 – 95.750 17.279 1619.540 43.454MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 6? 18 93.750 – 95.750 9.864 857.060 298.29MM 2nd lien Caa2
SHLD 8 19 83.000 – 85.000 15.178 1388.409 625MM Sr Unsecured Ca
SHLD 7½ 27 47.000 – 49.000 18.834 1651.607 43.179MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 6¾ 28 47.000 – 49.000 17.418 1510.014 23.943MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 6½ 28 47.000 – 49.000 16.522 1420.450 38.64MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 7 32 47.000 – 49.000 16.084 1376.580 91.052MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 7 9.000 – 10.000 18.023 1.805MM Sr Unsecured Caa3 PREFERRED
SHLD 7.4 9.000 – 10.000 18.818 1.775MM Sr Unsecured Caa3 PREFERRED
===== January 2017
SHLD SEARS PRICING UPDATE
Posted on January 5, 2017
Security B Px A Px A YTW A Spd Amt
Out Payment Rank Moody Notes
SHLD 6? 17 93.000 – 95.000 13.960 1318.548 43.454MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6? 18 94.000 – 96.000 9.120 795.363 298.29MM 2nd lien Caa1
SHLD 8 19 94.000 – 96.000 9.594 842.755 625MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 7½ 27 48.000 – 52.000 17.570 1522.432 43.179MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6¾ 28 48.000 – 52.000 16.249 1390.241 23.943MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6½ 28 48.000 – 52.000 15.426 1308.015 38.64MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 7 32 48.000 – 52.000 15.112 1276.609 91.052MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 7 9.750 – 10.750 16.595 1.805MM Sr Unsecured Caa2 PREFERRED
SHLD 7.4 9.750 – 10.750 18.050 1.775MM Sr Unsecured Caa2 PREFERRED
===== DECEMBER
SHLD SEARS PRICING UPDATE
Posted on December 9, 2016
Security B Px A Px A YTW A Spd Amt
Out Payment Rank Moody Notes
SHLD 6? 17 95.500 – 96.500 11.354 1022.486 43.454MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6? 18 95.500 – 96.500 8.720 759.088 298.29MM 2nd lien Caa1
SHLD 8 19 95.500 – 96.500 9.364 794.808 625MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 7½ 27 55.000 – 57.000 15.960 1349.268 43.179MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6¾ 28 55.000 – 57.000 14.734 1226.669 23.943MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6½ 28 55.000 – 57.000 14.009 1154.150 38.64MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 7 32 55.000 – 57.000 13.794 1061.935 91.052MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 7 10.000 – 11.000 16.677 1.805MM Sr Unsecured Caa2 PREFERRED
SHLD 7.4 10.000 – 11.000 17.429 1.775MM Sr Unsecured Caa2 PREFERRED
=== October
SHLD SEARS PRICING UPDATE
Posted on October 25, 2016
Security B Px A Px A YTW A Spd Amt
Out Payment Rank Moody Notes
SHLD 6? 17 95.000 – 97.000 10.216 936.328 43.454MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6? 18 94.000 – 96.000 8.887 803.450 298.29MM 2nd lien Caa1
SHLD 8 19 91.000 – 93.000 10.682 968.162 625MM Sr Unsecured Caa3
SHLD 7½ 27 60.000 – 62.000 14.531 1277.315 43.179MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6¾ 28 60.000 – 62.000 13.384 1162.656 23.943MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 6½ 28 60.000 – 62.000 12.741 1098.376 38.64MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 7 32 60.000 – 62.000 12.632 1013.244 91.052MM Sr Unsecured Caa2
SHLD 7 10.750 – 11.750 15.344 1.805MM Sr Unsecured Caa2 PREFERRED
SHLD 7.4 10.750 – 11.750 16.021 1.775MM Sr Unsecured Caa2 PREFERRED
AI
