OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS
Been reading and studying for a while but now that more posters and varied thoughts have returned, I felt it time to give some of my 2 cents.
1. Lately its been essentially a one person board, one poster and an occasional disciple responding whose points were often flawed. Sadly, many of these posts only involved generic 3d information not related to Arcam and sometimes totally different companies despite the warning to the right of this screen to focus on arcam.
2. It is clear that my fears have been realized. Baby arcam has become a zombie without volume. Good luck selling even 500 shares without affecting the price Papa arcam is almost as bad with its volume sometimes below the american ADS. Shocking. I had 5000ish long term shares and 2000 hot shares and feared that I could not sell if necessary post merger and have been proved right.
3. The latest posts show the topic problem. GE announced that it would sell 10000 printers outside the company, 1000 used in the company and that it was developing a new large bed printer. ALL posters assumed that this was great for arcam. Ridiculous. A careful reading of the various articles and announcements reference GE's 3d generic guidance and vision not necessarily applicable to Arcam. My reading is those numbers and the new printer do not necessarily involve arcam and may well be laser based and a concept laser product. Subsequent clarifications from Carlie confirm this. Note that GE has announced 100 million expansion for concept laser (figures are from memory) and if Charlie is right about 1.3 million (the unsolicated contribution from an unnamed shareholder) that is minor compared to this. So the news may be more positive for concept than arcam.
4. Reading a lot of 3d articles and information on 3d I notice a lot of positives about laser and not so much about EBM. While I've read a lot of companies have experimented with EBM, only GE through avio has committed to use EBM in production and that is only for 1 blade. Am I not right?. Hope i'm wrong. But can anyone point to any aviation entities that are planning to use EBM in mass production. And even with GE, its a long time in the future. So far, the 9x, the only engine announced for EBM so far will be years before its in production. Avio has not even taken full delivery on the 10 printers bought in Dec 2015 much less ordering the thousands in 2016 ad 2017 that Trader, Sailor and others said would happen. Its simply taking a lot longer than I and most anticipated.
5. I would love to hear specific announcements for EBM mass production of parts, but still waiting.
6. I've followed the photogenesis information with great interest. It may be bad news for arcam. Will a lot of competitors decide to use these machines rather than APC machines to fulfil their powder needs. Technology is the same or photogenesis may be better if its using newer technology than APC. Not sure on this point but the powder will be the same and competitors may prefer not buying from GE. In the last ERs, APC has been the only good news for Arcam.
8. It is clear that GE is in full control of Arcam and all those posters that said Ge would need and would pay for 90% or more are proven wrong. Moreover, all that talk about the minority shareholders having input are also proved wrong as its clear that GE is in full control of the board and the remainders are hangers on with no input and assuming every GE 3d vision applies to us.
9.To Sailor, yes Elliot buying in to Arcam and the other companies it bought into after mergers were announced is just extortion. I can use that term as a descriptive noun even though it may or may not equate to the criminal definition. Does anyone think Elliot is in Arcam to spur its business model and for the long term rather than just trying to get a better pps buyout. That to me is extortion practices. Anyone disagree???? Doing the same thing with that other company and with Arconic. Does anyone believe Elliot would contribute money for Arcam RD. LOL Does anyone think I should be banned for this opinion???
Bottom line, i'm less bullish on Arcam than I was. Not sure I can buy or sell shares in a normal fashion given the low volume and float. While bullish on 3d, not sure how much of the sector will involve EBM versus laser. Hope I'm wrong but need to hear more announcements that production will involve EBM. This last GE announcement suggests the contrary as my take is that the new GE printer will be laser and not EBM based. Hope I;m wrong but we will see. The competition from photogenesis may hurt APC, the one positive spot for Arcam in 2016. Lets here more about Arcam and EBM progess and make clear that many of these posts do not even involve Arcam, like the new GE printer which all assumed would benefit Arcam. Many simply involve basic 3d
