National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)

[NewJerichoMan]

April is the cruelest month...

The correlation between La Croix revenues and $FIZZ overall revenues is strong (0.62).
The correlation between La Croix revenues and $FIZZ overall earnings is even stronger (0.72).

In 2016, La Croix sales were $16.4M in March and $19.2M in April, a 17% increase month-over-month. It's a typical seasonal spike.

If we get the same in 2017, that would mean over $30M+ in La Croix sales for April (doesn't include Curate in my opinion). Note: In 2016, Easter was in March; 2017 it was in April - favorable sign.

I think since the Glaucus report, Nick has been pushing as much La Croix out the door as humanly possible, to stick it up shorts' a$$e$. It's spiked the revenues but it's really spiked the bottom line. Said another way, the product mix features more high margin product (La Croix). The top line (round illustrative numbers) is growing at 15% but the bottom line is growing at 45%.

It's one thing to push product out the door. It's another for the public to absorb it. April LAC sales will be the DEW (distant early warning) for the late July 10K. If the April LAC sales figure starts with a "3" (i.e., $30M+), $100 per share will be in play.

The opposite side of that coin, say monthly revenues come in at ~$27M, will be a less seasonal revenue stream for La Croix in 2017, or a revenue stream with about ~$25M per month, whether it is summer or winter. This might suggest its time to take some money off the table.