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Re: loanranger post# 131455

Tuesday, 04/25/2017 11:42:59 AM

Tuesday, April 25, 2017 11:42:59 AM

Post# of 146291
DIFFERING Z-SCORES

I could easily have made a data entry error on one of the other factors. So I will take your 0.38 as making sense. The conclusion is the same as both the result I got and yours are substantially below the 1.80 threshold that Altman found to be a good predictor of corporate failure within two years.

The formula was simply a by-products of analyzing matched pairs of companies with one failing and the other not, using Linear Discriminant Analysis. When Altman retested it, in the 1990s using out-of-sample data the accuracy held up. So I think there is merit to his method.

The simpler methods you refer to are aligned philosophically with Altman in my view but I am not an accountant.

Thanks for your redoing of the work.

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