I bought back late last year under 20c for the reasons explained. I readily admit it's a gamble on Clipstream, but one with a considerable amount of downward protection.
That why I argued Clipstream has some option value in the early Jan article, or compared it to a biotech in the April article. Just like a biotech, you don't know if it will be successful, and often you have to wait a long time, but the payoff can be huge.
Your assumption is that it won't move before they sell. You might be right, I dunno. But it could also be that the stock starts to move when more people see that the quality of the demo's is getting good enough, just like biotech can move well before final FDA approval. I really do not know whether this will happen, nor do I know whether Clipstream will ever be good enough, but under 20 cents, given the fairly low risks and given the potentially huge payoff, I simply liked the situation.
I wouldn't entirely discount the generic streaming hosting opportunity either, by the way.
Nothing is guaranteed, but a huge pay-off in case Clipstream does work well enough to sell isn't unlikely:
- Streaming video is a multi-billion dollar market, growing at a high rate
- Clipstream has fairly unique capabilities that are good for a sliver of that market
- Shhh, don't tell anyone, but since it's automated it's high fixed cost and therefore high margin business.
- Even only a tiny sliver of a multi-billion dollar market quickly adds to the accounts of an $11M market cap company.
So, bar some catastrophe, I thought in December, my downside is perhaps 5 cents, but my upside is potentially pretty good. I hadn't followed it for years but noted the low price and noted that they were trying a new codec and that everybody had puked it out and given up on it. That sort of seemed an interesting risk/reward.
