Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[gr8db8]

Since avastin's OS is 32 wks (8 mos), an improvement of another 12 wks (3 mos) ... an improvement of almost 40% ... would be very significant. Avastin's patent expiration would enable the biosimilars to offer a cheaper alternative if patients want to take both VB-111 and avastin biosimilar as a combo therapy.

I think that the majority of the patients, when given an option to extend OS by 40%, would pick that option.

If all this plays out ... how much would Roche pay? Well, avastin and its biosimilars all do not extend OS. VB-111 would be the only drug that can make the claim of improving OS. If effective in rGBM, VB-111 would most likely be effective in other solid tumors. So we're talking about a very big number for peak sales. Definitely in the billions and the buyout price would have to be multiples of peak sales.

Nice to day dream but it will all get clearer in a few months.