Value Microcaps Junior Miners

[dr_airtime]

Trevali - I would guess this:

1) Massive dilution for shareholders at time announced (I was largetly in cash on extended vacation so didn't effect me).

2) Increases Glencore's de facto control with offtakes on all four mines, though offtakes are likely tied to LME spot (Glencore is effectively the OPEC-like 'swing producer' that control marginal cost of production and can move zinc market and hence control it).

3) Even further increases Glencore's control as largest single shareholder with 25% so would be challenging for Trevali to try to renegotiate offtakes in event Glencore tries to screw them.

Zinc is simply a commodity afterall and I'm only looking out to 2018 which is supposed to be peak supply crunch (and Wood Mac forecast peak pricing of $1.80/lb) as a holding period for Trevali. It's basically just a levered play on zinc price.

Despite all this if zinc goes to $1.80 Trevali is going to fly just don't own too much and get ready to sell. Not a long term hold.