Hi Tom, Great stuff. In looking at your current NYSE Cumulative Daily Breadth chart I have the sense, just guessing mind you, that it might look similar to early 2007. The way I've looked at that market is that it hit its peak in the week of October 8th 2007 for both the DOW and the S&P 500, From there they slip slided down, sometimes up for a bit but overall down until somewhere late September, early October 2008 when it started falling off the cliff. Some people say it hit bottom in early February or early March of 2009. I use the week of March 2, 2009 as that is when both the DOW and the S&P 500 hit bottom.
As to the consumer index falling off the cliff when it did it is not uncommon for things to go in waves, first the market, then, after a bit the consumer spending once they feel the panic around them.
In looking at predictive cycles I've noticed that roofing seems to slow down before most other things. I haven't looked recently so I wonder how roofing companies are doing.
Well, we'll see soon enough,
Best,
Allen
