Well if you go back and look I always said it was a 5 year plan, so I'm still riding it out. I see nothing "doom and gloom" like the bears see, only a growing company that when it transitioned from non-revenue to revenue it's PE and cap exploded and so people have been pairing it down for a few years now. Hindsight is always 20/20, so yes the company was overvalued at 100M, 80M..., but where is it undervalued? 35M? 40M? 50M?
Macro forces will always be there, and the strength of the vessel will determine how it weathers those forces. Jim built a really solid ship here. Is it perfect? nope. Will it weather the storm without a equity capital raise and Rs? It appears it is, which is why I'm still here.
I love it when people argue "the PPS is DOWN x%..." IT's always going to be down from a peak somewhere... just as it's always going to be up from x% off the lowest low ever. People pick and choose data points to make an argument, and those arguments vary in validity from day to day around here.
The only thing certain is that Sunw is installing solar panels for close to 75% ACI and closer to 25% residential. The margins on larger jobs are lower than smaller jobs, but hey the larger % of ACI ensures more of the same profits at a lower margin. There's a intersection on the chart somewhere and at that point the company becomes profitable. That point depends on the exact % of ACI vs. Resi with the margins they are capable of producing.
Last year they though they were going to have x% resi, x% ACI, with margins of a certain degree for each. Well, the 2nd half of the year the projects were pushed and they blew it, plain and simple. The CEO resigned over it and now they are going to try again this year with a much lower target that I'm guessing takes into account more leeway for incomplete projects that are out of the companies control. This year, again, they will create a target, likely around 100-110M and in order to be profitable they will complete x$'s of ACI and x$'s of resi, and they will be profitable "on the year". Sure Q1 will be lower than expectations, but that "year end" target will surely have accounted for Q1 weakness as they already know what that is as the Q closes today.
I have zero fear at this point on the year, my only hesitation is if there's a sudden bear attack due to the Q1 weakness, could we see the PPS dip lower? Maybe.. but Again with a new CEO anything is possible and we are likely to see different approaches to weakness in the PPS, or bear attacks on the stock, or how they handle personal attacks against the company in general.
Maybe the company will engage with Sandridge directly now. Maybe not. They already have put the cell questions to rest after all the moaning. So I'm ready for some new directions akin to this.
As for the SP down x% from "where you want to say the peak was", yup. Sure is. But imo that was an anomaly based on the conversion to being a revenue generator. Some people traded it and profited. Others did not. That's the market. You need not worry about other people, it's a one player game. Focus on you, yourself and your own strategies, especially when it comes to SUNW. We all have ideas of where we think it's going to go this year, some bull, some bear. And that's why some people make money while others don't. There's hedging strategies to utilize with options, you can simply sell "some of your shares" when you think it's a peak, and you can still call yourself "long". Just because you hedge on a weak Quarters results doesn't mean you are a bear, nor does it take you out of the bull camp. It's just common sense. People who simply buy and hold, well that's up to them. Buffett recently clarified that he never meant to "hold stuff forever", and I don't really ascribe to that hold forever strategy either.
I think there's a room for holding, hedging, as well as shorting on certain occasions. Although I've never shorted this stock, I totally understand why and sometimes when people do it. It's the market, I have no hard feelings. Most days it's a zero sum game. And then there's "people lost so much money". Again, it's the market. It's like walking into a casino. If you pump 100$ into a slot machine and you don't read the rules that clearly state, "must play max bet to get the bonus round", then you can't complain when you land on the bonus round and don't get the "mega multiplier". If you walk into the market and slap down 100$ on Sunw without looking at the chart, reading up on the financials and understand them, then you are taking on significantly more risk than a lot of others who have. I feel bad for those people because we've all been that person at some point. I'm sure 99% of the posters here have lost money on at least one trade with one company. So was it a fluke? Or could that trade have been avoided by more thorough research? Sometimes you can do all the research, and then guess what, the weather blows the trade. Trump tweets something and your stock price collapses. Or a 8-K comes out of the blue with some detrimental news.
So yes, the stock price is down, but the company has made great strides. The only question now is how close to a real valuation is it?
Maybe the 85% drop is the bottom. So if now IS the time to average down because it's technically as well as fundamentally undervalued, and the weather is behind them, then at some point it'll head back up. And people will make PROFITS from here, all the way up the ladder. However just lake last May, when the stock price picked itself up off the 1.80's low, and traded back up towards the 3.30's, people still complained that it was down over 50% from the ALL TIME HIGH... If you are going to complain until the stock hits 8.88 again and keeps going, then I've got some news for you, you'd better buy a few good books because it's going to be while.
Until then, learn how to trade. Learn how to write, enjoy bird watching. But for crying out loud quit complaining how far down the PPS is from the ATH. It does nobody any good.
Total speculation here, but my guess is we see a similar run from last year. Where the Q1 dud, leads to a probable "easy double" in the PPS from here through teh 3rd Quarter. Again- total spec. Remember, it's a risky stock, if you aren't into that go plunk down some money on AAPL or GOOG.
Long SUNW/SUNWW
