Velocityshares 3X Inverse Natural Gas Etn (DGAZ)

[researcher59]

NG looks overvalued at $3.20/mcf for the May futures .... April expires today.

Even Celsius has turned bearish -

Following the rally, natural gas is now trading nearly 9% overvalued versus my 8-month average Fair Price with November 2017 futures prices rising to $3.38/MMBTU. As a result of this overvaluation, on Tuesday I took profits--around +30%--on my entire natural gas long position by covering my DGAZ short stake, as I had mentioned I might do in Monday's Commentary. I then turned around and initiated a small short position via shorting the 3x leveraged ETF UGAZ. My overall thinking has not changed and I do not foresee a large correction looming and continue to expect a prolonged period of rangebound trading. However, rather than an above-average risk for upside, I now see a similar above-average downside risk given the overvaluation. The UGAZ short will benefit not only from any pullback, but also leverage-induced decay from rangebound trading as well as contango-induced losses from monthly rollover. This short position is only worth 15% of my target position size and I will look to add on further rallies or a rising overvaluation.

http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/daily-commentary.html