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Re: carbonfiltered post# 2497

Saturday, 03/25/2017 5:00:46 AM

Saturday, March 25, 2017 5:00:46 AM

Post# of 8795
I agree - a lot of profitable pursuits for PIOI are possible. Will they come to fruition? Time will tell.

Meanwhile, here's a recent piece from Value Walk that easily applies to PIOI. It's one that I try to keep in mind as best I can.

"An investor needs a technical risk control method in their toolbox to reassess the narrative and evaluate whether or not his original thesis is still intact. Assessing by narrative alone is an impossible task that requires advanced mental gymnastics. It’s too easy to get emotionally attached to a narrative and succumb to things like confirmation bias and the sunk cost fallacy.

That’s why investment narratives should be used to INITIATE trades, not manage them.

Compelling narratives create large trends which are what you need for huge gains. But technical analysis is what you need to manage your trades. It lets you objectively define your exit. If you’re relying on your interpretation of a complex narrative as an exit strategy, you’re exposing your portfolio to huge draw downs.

The reality of the market is that no matter how rich or how smart you are, you’ll eventually be wrong. The best in the business call it right a little over 50% of the time. It’s crucial to have a reliable and objective risk management process for when things go south."

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