Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[trading_cyclist]

Goldman's higher revenue estimate is based on an increased price, of up to 60k per patient per year. The size of the patient population is essentially the same as other estimates. His assumption of a higher price is based on an assessment of insurers' willingness to pay (although he was short on details about the methodology). My total market guesstimate of $7.5b uses a price of 30k per patient per year, which is "based" on the costs of treating Lupus LN (per previous posts) which can run to 60k. My logic being that if the economic costs of caring for a person with the disease are X, it is not unreasonable to think that people would be willing to pay 1/2 X for a medixine to treat it if there's a 50% chance of complete remissionm

The punch line here is that the company's initial guess of $6k per person does indeed seem to be comically low, and is already being revisited by analysts other than those posting on this board.

We will most certainly be hearing more about pricing of Vol from others in the near future, and the impact that these price assumptions have on the terminal market cap.

TC