Synaptogenix Inc (SNPX)

[doingmybest]

There are obviously two sides to the risk/return equation. I understand the very high value placed on the return side given the potential sales of bryostatin if it succeeds. But, I do not understand how anyone can legitimately apply an 80% chance of success with such little data. I see credible science and a credible lead research scientist, I see good preclinical work but there is doubt about the accuracy of mouse models for human AD, I see 3 wins on compassionate care, but, after that not much. That is not a lot to support 80%, which is a probability in biotech usually reserved for either a very strong P3 candidate based on a strong P2 or a pending FDA approval. I would apply more like a 30% realistically based on real info. I have to severely discount Mgmt's commentaries that are antecdotal, not eliminate them but severely discount them. So, there is a lot of hope here and rightfully so, and, a great risk/return ratio since success does not just mean the short term trader 220 per share but a larger return over the next couple of years. But, I am perplexed over an 80% chance of success. I think that is much more hopeful opinion than analytical SWAG and I would apply a higher number on the return side, like a MC of 5B over the next two to two and one half years, but, also a lower probability of success on their P2b. I am hopeful too, just not so convinced on the probability of success yet.