Thursday, March 23, 2017 1:25:31 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/22 2017 EOD
Best case scenario is sideways but I think near-term weakening, to a small degree, is most likely.
The intra-day breakdown had buy percentages that looked good but couldn't move VWAP, likely due to the normal low-volume attempt to manipulate price up encountering other folks that recognized the pattern, likely short-term traders, short sellers and MMs, and no new retail folks jumping in.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:1.4K $0.77/$0.80
09:30-10:01 opened the day with a 714 sell for $0.78. B/a just after open was 200:405 $0.7505/$0.80. Then came 9:35's b/a 68:300 $0.78/$0.7999 (bid backed by presented 200 $0.7505), 9:42's b/a 68:450 $0.7800/99 (bid backed by presented 200 $0.7506, 100 $0.7505), 9:44's 30.4K (incl $0.75 x 27.4K blk) $0.7510/6/5/00, 9:47's b/a 900:300 $0.7501/$0.78, 9:48's 100 $0.76, 9:49's 1.1K $0.7601/0, 9:50's 350 $0.7601/0, 9:51's b/a 200:300 $0.76/8, 9:51's 11.6K (incl 9K $0.78) $0.78/6/$0.7595/60, 9:52's 6.6K $0.7560, 9:53's 1K $0.7560/01/$0.7587/86/01/00, 9:54's 21.1K $0.75/$0.7496/$0.75/400/16/00, 9:56's b/a 6.6K:300 $0.7300/49, 9:58's 5.9K $0.7484/00/$0.73, 9:57's 3.7K $0.7345/01/02/ ... 20/34/48, 9:58's 7K $0.7349/35/ ... 50, 9:59's b/a 200:500 $0.7349/$0.7498, and the period ended on 10:01's 6.2K $0.7498/$0.75/$0.7498/$0.75/$0.7320.
10:02-10:43 during the first six no-trades minutes had 10:03's b/a 500:2.1K $0.7400/96. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7400/80, with slowly falling highs, on 10:08's 200 $0.7480/00. B/a at 10:10 was 500:1.6K $0.7400/80, 10:20 500:1.1K $0.7400/70. Heavy pecking the offers with 100-share hits occurred 10:20-:38. B/a at 10:32 was 3.1K:900 $0.7400/70, 10:42 2.7K:1.2K $0.7400/69. The period ended on 10:43's 100 $0.7469.
10:44-11:09 during the initial six no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:47 of 2.5K:1.3K $0.7400/69. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume rise from 10:50's 8.2K $0.7468/$0.7591/0. 11:02's 3.7K hit $0.76/$0.7591/$0.76/$0.7590/91/$0.76. B/a at 11:03 was 17.4K:400 (west coasties arrive?) $0.7600/$0.7750. The period ended on 11:09's 100 $0.7750.
11:10-12:13, after three no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.7749/$0.7601. B/a at 11:13 was 11:22 was 300:1.1K $0.7420/$0.7599. Volume was interrupted by 11:18's 21.2K (incl 17.3K $0.76 blk) $0.7600/1/00/$0.7440. 11:20-:57 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7420/$0.76 on 11:20's 100 $0.76. B/a at 11:29 was 200:1K $0.7420/$0.7599, 11:47 100:1K $0.7420/$0.7599. 11:58's 2K began the next drop doing $0.7595/99/00, 12:00's 100 $0.7445 and 12:01's 2.6K $0.7380/39/80/53/80/53/80/52 and 12:02's 400 $0.7350/74. B/a at 12:02 was 200:200 $0.7325/74 (offers rapidly falling), 12:12 200:500 $0.7325/36. The period ended on 12:13's 2.6K, hitting $0.7327/28/27/28.
12:14-16:00 began an attempt to move up, through the end of the day, on extremely low/no-volume from 12:15's 500 $0.7351. 12:16's and :18's 100 each hit $0.74 and there were no other trades until 13:15. B/a at 12:17 was 1K:1.5K $0.7400/99, 12:21 1.2K:1.3K $0.7400/9, 12:21 1.2K:1.3K $0.7400/99, 12:21 1.2K:1.3K $0.7400/99, 12:32 3K:2.5K $0.7400/98, 12:47 3K:2.5K $0.7400/97, 13:03 3K:2.2K $0.7400/96. 13:15's 1.3K did $0.74, breaking the no-trades period. 13:30's 1.5K hit $0.7448/24/48/50. B/a at 13:32 was 1.5k:500 $0.7450/98. 13:46's 100 did $0.7659. B/a at 13:47 was 200:300 $0.7601/$0.7750, 14:02 200:300 $0.7601/$0.7750. Volume was interrupted by 14:08's 21K (incl $0.7601 x 14.1K blk) $0.7601/$0.7750/$0.7742/$0.7676/01/$0.7750/$0.7601/$0.7550. B/a at 14:17 was 400:500 $0.7545/$0.7750, 14:32 200:500 $0.7545/$0.7750. 14:35's106 hit $0.7749. B/a at 14:47 was 100:400 $0.7545/$0.7750, 15:02 100:400 $0.7545/$0.7750. Volume was interrupted by 15:12's 5.1K $0.7609 (5K)/$0.756. B/a at 15:17 was 5:400 $0.7545/$0.7750 (bids backed by presented 100 $0.7501 and 400 $0.7500). 15:29's 500 hit $0.7745/40/50/$0.7675/$0.7650. B/a at 15:32 was 200:300 $0.7550/$0.7749, 15:47 5.1K:300 $0.76/$0.7747. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.76/$0.78/$0.77/$0.76 and 16:00's 288 $0.76.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 115,696, 57.29% of day's volume, with a $0.7555 VWAP. The count is reasonable, but again the percentage is high. Look at the breakdown and note where most occurred. This fits with yesterdays { Then a short flattish period was followed by an extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher, likely as a set-up for tomorrow's action to suck some folks in } and in the breakdown { began the so-common extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher to set up for tomorrow }.
Note also that today had another, but very extended almost 4 hour, extremely low/no-volume push up that accounted for only ~20% of day's volume in that four hours.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { The last item here is that lower low. Our history is one of not being able to sustain up-moves. That low movement makes me think it's heading back down to the former resistance (descending red line), which is now support, to test it. }
The most significant thing today, I think, is that we bottomed right on the descending support (falling red line, former resistance) early and immediately began moving up - yes manipulated up, but up nevertheless. However, that doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet as our history is a long and strong one. Today's "another lower low" would suggest we are at risk of breaking below. The falling, and quite low, volume argues against that though.
The next most significant is the fast and slow EMS, which had risen beginning since the cross of the fast above the slow four days back, saw the fast EMA decline and the slow's rate of rise declined. The fast EMA is down to $0.0170 above the slow EMA.
The day's range was again completely above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, which has a mid-point that stopped rising and is flat now. Note that we didn't get "far above" the mid-point like we did yesterday.
On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA had made its cross to rising, five days back declined 2/100ths of a penny and four days back rose 6/100ths. Three days back it declined 2/100ths. Two days back it flipped to rising again and I said if we get the behavior I expect I expect the rise to be more sustained.
Yesterday we got only some of what I expected but it still rose - up 8/100ths of a penny to $0.7484. I noted { Although it's rising, a good thing, we know this symbol has a history of not maintaining an up-trend. Being above the 50-day, and looking at the stuff above, makes me worry that we're likely move back below the 50-day SMA. }
Well, we got another day of rise, making three consecutive days and there's only 16/100ths of a penny down to the 20-day SMA. A cross of the 10 and 20-day SMAs above the 50 would be a pretty bullish indication (think MACD going bullish).
If we hold here we'll get 5 days (was 9) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 1 (was 1 rising) day of decline and 4 (was 16) days of rise. The 50 will rise 2 (was 14) days, go flat 1 day, and begin the up/down waves with a rise of 10 days (was three day decline). The 200-day appears unchanged - would fall ~106 days and then rise about 30 days. As always, of course we won't just "hold here - we'll be doing normal up/down waves due to various types of traders, shorters and MMs affect the market, along with any news about the company or it's fundamentals.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution. Every other oscillator deteriorated. Williams %R and full stochastic fell out of overbought. RSI, momentum, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution (2nd day - unusual) and deterioration again in all others. Above neutral are RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and full stochastic. Williams %R and ADX-related are at neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6819 and $0.8027 ($0.6819 and $0.8027 yesterday), stopped diverging with a rising mid-point and went flat and parallel.
All in, the intra-day behavior, low volume, weakening OLHC, early high VWAP with inability to progress regardless of low-volume attempts to push it, good buy percentage not producing a move, and the conventional TA stuff leaves me seeing no near-term bullish indications. At best I could say this stuff looks neutral but my gut read says a bit more near-term weakness, but minimal, as we take a day or two to return to a leg up in the consolidation pattern.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and even worse is that the buy percentage is in "no man's land", suggesting neither up or down in near-term movements. The short percentage is just below my desired range (needs re-check). This is likely due to a higher than normal percentage of inter/intra-broker trades, suggested by the percentage of day's volume the larger trades took.
The spread contracted, suggesting reducing degree of movement is likely. Being we are in a small pull-back I think this suggests more near-term downside but the movement will be small.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after yesterday deteriorating to 12 negatives and 12 positives, again deteriorated to 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 01/15 is -$0.0359, -4.55%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.1595%, 0.2282%, 0.3424%, 0.3026%, 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, and -0.2735%.
All in, no positives here, but most of the negatives are not that strong. Best case is sideways but I think most likely is mild weakening near-term.
Bill
Best case scenario is sideways but I think near-term weakening, to a small degree, is most likely.
The intra-day breakdown had buy percentages that looked good but couldn't move VWAP, likely due to the normal low-volume attempt to manipulate price up encountering other folks that recognized the pattern, likely short-term traders, short sellers and MMs, and no new retail folks jumping in.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:1.4K $0.77/$0.80
09:30-10:01 opened the day with a 714 sell for $0.78. B/a just after open was 200:405 $0.7505/$0.80. Then came 9:35's b/a 68:300 $0.78/$0.7999 (bid backed by presented 200 $0.7505), 9:42's b/a 68:450 $0.7800/99 (bid backed by presented 200 $0.7506, 100 $0.7505), 9:44's 30.4K (incl $0.75 x 27.4K blk) $0.7510/6/5/00, 9:47's b/a 900:300 $0.7501/$0.78, 9:48's 100 $0.76, 9:49's 1.1K $0.7601/0, 9:50's 350 $0.7601/0, 9:51's b/a 200:300 $0.76/8, 9:51's 11.6K (incl 9K $0.78) $0.78/6/$0.7595/60, 9:52's 6.6K $0.7560, 9:53's 1K $0.7560/01/$0.7587/86/01/00, 9:54's 21.1K $0.75/$0.7496/$0.75/400/16/00, 9:56's b/a 6.6K:300 $0.7300/49, 9:58's 5.9K $0.7484/00/$0.73, 9:57's 3.7K $0.7345/01/02/ ... 20/34/48, 9:58's 7K $0.7349/35/ ... 50, 9:59's b/a 200:500 $0.7349/$0.7498, and the period ended on 10:01's 6.2K $0.7498/$0.75/$0.7498/$0.75/$0.7320.
10:02-10:43 during the first six no-trades minutes had 10:03's b/a 500:2.1K $0.7400/96. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7400/80, with slowly falling highs, on 10:08's 200 $0.7480/00. B/a at 10:10 was 500:1.6K $0.7400/80, 10:20 500:1.1K $0.7400/70. Heavy pecking the offers with 100-share hits occurred 10:20-:38. B/a at 10:32 was 3.1K:900 $0.7400/70, 10:42 2.7K:1.2K $0.7400/69. The period ended on 10:43's 100 $0.7469.
10:44-11:09 during the initial six no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:47 of 2.5K:1.3K $0.7400/69. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume rise from 10:50's 8.2K $0.7468/$0.7591/0. 11:02's 3.7K hit $0.76/$0.7591/$0.76/$0.7590/91/$0.76. B/a at 11:03 was 17.4K:400 (west coasties arrive?) $0.7600/$0.7750. The period ended on 11:09's 100 $0.7750.
11:10-12:13, after three no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume decline from $0.7749/$0.7601. B/a at 11:13 was 11:22 was 300:1.1K $0.7420/$0.7599. Volume was interrupted by 11:18's 21.2K (incl 17.3K $0.76 blk) $0.7600/1/00/$0.7440. 11:20-:57 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7420/$0.76 on 11:20's 100 $0.76. B/a at 11:29 was 200:1K $0.7420/$0.7599, 11:47 100:1K $0.7420/$0.7599. 11:58's 2K began the next drop doing $0.7595/99/00, 12:00's 100 $0.7445 and 12:01's 2.6K $0.7380/39/80/53/80/53/80/52 and 12:02's 400 $0.7350/74. B/a at 12:02 was 200:200 $0.7325/74 (offers rapidly falling), 12:12 200:500 $0.7325/36. The period ended on 12:13's 2.6K, hitting $0.7327/28/27/28.
12:14-16:00 began an attempt to move up, through the end of the day, on extremely low/no-volume from 12:15's 500 $0.7351. 12:16's and :18's 100 each hit $0.74 and there were no other trades until 13:15. B/a at 12:17 was 1K:1.5K $0.7400/99, 12:21 1.2K:1.3K $0.7400/9, 12:21 1.2K:1.3K $0.7400/99, 12:21 1.2K:1.3K $0.7400/99, 12:32 3K:2.5K $0.7400/98, 12:47 3K:2.5K $0.7400/97, 13:03 3K:2.2K $0.7400/96. 13:15's 1.3K did $0.74, breaking the no-trades period. 13:30's 1.5K hit $0.7448/24/48/50. B/a at 13:32 was 1.5k:500 $0.7450/98. 13:46's 100 did $0.7659. B/a at 13:47 was 200:300 $0.7601/$0.7750, 14:02 200:300 $0.7601/$0.7750. Volume was interrupted by 14:08's 21K (incl $0.7601 x 14.1K blk) $0.7601/$0.7750/$0.7742/$0.7676/01/$0.7750/$0.7601/$0.7550. B/a at 14:17 was 400:500 $0.7545/$0.7750, 14:32 200:500 $0.7545/$0.7750. 14:35's106 hit $0.7749. B/a at 14:47 was 100:400 $0.7545/$0.7750, 15:02 100:400 $0.7545/$0.7750. Volume was interrupted by 15:12's 5.1K $0.7609 (5K)/$0.756. B/a at 15:17 was 5:400 $0.7545/$0.7750 (bids backed by presented 100 $0.7501 and 400 $0.7500). 15:29's 500 hit $0.7745/40/50/$0.7675/$0.7650. B/a at 15:32 was 200:300 $0.7550/$0.7749, 15:47 5.1K:300 $0.76/$0.7747. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.76/$0.78/$0.77/$0.76 and 16:00's 288 $0.76.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 115,696, 57.29% of day's volume, with a $0.7555 VWAP. The count is reasonable, but again the percentage is high. Look at the breakdown and note where most occurred. This fits with yesterdays { Then a short flattish period was followed by an extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher, likely as a set-up for tomorrow's action to suck some folks in } and in the breakdown { began the so-common extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher to set up for tomorrow }.
Note also that today had another, but very extended almost 4 hour, extremely low/no-volume push up that accounted for only ~20% of day's volume in that four hours.
Note the ~53% of days volume at a relatively high VWAP fits, I think, with yesterday's thought that the manipulated push up to a high close was set-up for today's early action, where we see most of the larger trades alng with a relatively high VWAP.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:01 107620 $0.7300 $0.7800 $80,885.23 $0.7516 53.29% 51.36% Incl 09:44 $0.7500 27,432 09:51 $0.7800 9,000
09:53 $0.7586 9,698 09:54 $0.7500 5,000
09:54 $0.7500 4,810 4,700
09:56 $0.7400 5,000 09:58 $0.7349 4,900
10:43 8803 $0.7400 $0.7480 $6,578.20 $0.7473 4.36% 54.60% Incl 10:14 $0.7479 4,600
11:09 12214 $0.7468 $0.7750 $9,190.55 $0.7525 6.05% 57.33%
12:13 34054 $0.7327 $0.7749 $25,700.05 $0.7547 16.86% 52.76% Incl 11:18 $0.7600 17,256
16:00 38233 $0.7351 $0.7800 $29,015.97 $0.7589 18.93% 45.27% Incl 14:08 $0.7601 14,100 4,200
15:12 $0.7609 5,000
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The key for me here is the greatly reduced volume, which suggests little strength for further down moves. Can't say it's the bottom yet, but looks like it could be in the next couple days (ignoring possible "Friday effect").__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.61% -2.67% -5.11% -3.80% -42.76%
Prior 4.91% -1.76% 0.24% -1.25% 8.30%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { The last item here is that lower low. Our history is one of not being able to sustain up-moves. That low movement makes me think it's heading back down to the former resistance (descending red line), which is now support, to test it. }
The most significant thing today, I think, is that we bottomed right on the descending support (falling red line, former resistance) early and immediately began moving up - yes manipulated up, but up nevertheless. However, that doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet as our history is a long and strong one. Today's "another lower low" would suggest we are at risk of breaking below. The falling, and quite low, volume argues against that though.
The next most significant is the fast and slow EMS, which had risen beginning since the cross of the fast above the slow four days back, saw the fast EMA decline and the slow's rate of rise declined. The fast EMA is down to $0.0170 above the slow EMA.
The day's range was again completely above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, which has a mid-point that stopped rising and is flat now. Note that we didn't get "far above" the mid-point like we did yesterday.
On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA had made its cross to rising, five days back declined 2/100ths of a penny and four days back rose 6/100ths. Three days back it declined 2/100ths. Two days back it flipped to rising again and I said if we get the behavior I expect I expect the rise to be more sustained.
Yesterday we got only some of what I expected but it still rose - up 8/100ths of a penny to $0.7484. I noted { Although it's rising, a good thing, we know this symbol has a history of not maintaining an up-trend. Being above the 50-day, and looking at the stuff above, makes me worry that we're likely move back below the 50-day SMA. }
Well, we got another day of rise, making three consecutive days and there's only 16/100ths of a penny down to the 20-day SMA. A cross of the 10 and 20-day SMAs above the 50 would be a pretty bullish indication (think MACD going bullish).
If we hold here we'll get 5 days (was 9) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 1 (was 1 rising) day of decline and 4 (was 16) days of rise. The 50 will rise 2 (was 14) days, go flat 1 day, and begin the up/down waves with a rise of 10 days (was three day decline). The 200-day appears unchanged - would fall ~106 days and then rise about 30 days. As always, of course we won't just "hold here - we'll be doing normal up/down waves due to various types of traders, shorters and MMs affect the market, along with any news about the company or it's fundamentals.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution. Every other oscillator deteriorated. Williams %R and full stochastic fell out of overbought. RSI, momentum, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution (2nd day - unusual) and deterioration again in all others. Above neutral are RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and full stochastic. Williams %R and ADX-related are at neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6819 and $0.8027 ($0.6819 and $0.8027 yesterday), stopped diverging with a rising mid-point and went flat and parallel.
All in, the intra-day behavior, low volume, weakening OLHC, early high VWAP with inability to progress regardless of low-volume attempts to push it, good buy percentage not producing a move, and the conventional TA stuff leaves me seeing no near-term bullish indications. At best I could say this stuff looks neutral but my gut read says a bit more near-term weakness, but minimal, as we take a day or two to return to a leg up in the consolidation pattern.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and even worse is that the buy percentage is in "no man's land", suggesting neither up or down in near-term movements. The short percentage is just below my desired range (needs re-check). This is likely due to a higher than normal percentage of inter/intra-broker trades, suggested by the percentage of day's volume the larger trades took.
The spread contracted, suggesting reducing degree of movement is likely. Being we are in a small pull-back I think this suggests more near-term downside but the movement will be small.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after yesterday deteriorating to 12 negatives and 12 positives, again deteriorated to 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 01/15 is -$0.0359, -4.55%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.1595%, 0.2282%, 0.3424%, 0.3026%, 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, and -0.2735%.
All in, no positives here, but most of the negatives are not that strong. Best case is sideways but I think most likely is mild weakening near-term.
Bill
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