Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTNP)

[Doctor Detroit]

That's a concern, for sure, but remember when Braeburn inked the Camurus deal probuphine was fresh off of a CRL, and Braeburn agreed to give up to $50 million in injectable sales to TTNP as a compromise. All in all, makes sense to me.

To me, another interesting thing to consider is that there are no other implants in development or contemplated. And both Titan and Braeburn have indicated that generic competition is unlikely, because due to the nature of the manufacturing of the implant, an entire Phase 3 trial would be necessary for a generic competitor to get an ANDA approved. That is a pretty big "moat" protecting probuphine.

On the other hand, Braeburn's injectables will face immediate competition for Indivior's injectables. Indivior sees that fact that its injectables form a hardened composite in situ as a marketing advantage ("no risk of drug dumping"). With the probuphine polymer, there is no risk of drug dumping either. The same can't be said for the Braeburn/Camrus injectables.

I think its likely that the price competition for injectables will be fierce, and that profit margins will shrink accordingly. Indivior is banking $300 million a year in profit in suboxone sales, which will allow it to drop its prices to levels Braeburn can't match.

Braeburn is going to be left with one possibility to make money: probuphine. Not a slam dunk, but their best shot IMO.