Looking back, the predictions I made for probuphine sales before approval seem idiotic now. At the time, I didn't know anything about the J Code issue, getting DEA clearance for a specialty pharmacy, that just because a doctor was trained did not mean he would prescribe, and the need for a sales force.
I'm going to try not to make the same mistake again. I have no idea what the effect of the 60 person sales force will be. Or the addition of a J Code. I am inclined to think it will help a lot, but I'm not sure. But basing any prediction on past results is kinda useless, because the sales force and J Code were not a factor in those results. We really are starting from square 1 this quarter.
Either I see something the market doesn't see, or not. Right now, the price per share would indicate that the "or not" is more likely. But the price per share is based on assumptions just as ignorant as the ones I made earlier this year.
We will see.
Screw Braeburn, by the way. Titan, to its credit, didn't really oversell this thing. It was Sheldon with her "most successful implant launch in history" rhetoric that led the dashed expectations. Moreover, I've learned that Titan has no knowledge of the Phase 3 pain trial mentioned in Braeburn's S-1--Braeburn has told Titan it's not happening yet, even though they included it in the S-1. That's on Sheldon. So you can't blame the confusion on Titan.
FWIW, I spent a lot of time over the weekend checking out the bios of Braeburn's sales representatives. A lot of experienced, first class sales people who have won a lot of sales awards. But again, we will see.
