Thursday, March 23, 2017 6:42:29 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/21 2017 EOD
All the positive indications from yesterday were obliterated by today's stuff. I'm strongly near-term negative.
The intra-day behavior was one of classics - open high, go a bit higher, a short flattish period and then a big decline on most of the day's volume from around 10:00 through ~13:30ish. Then a short flattish period was followed by an extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher, likely as a set-up for tomorrows action to suck some folks in.
I commented on stocktwits that I thought MMs were taking care of some "good customers" today. I expected the short percentage to be higher before I did my EOD stuff and saw that 45.8K block trade, and other larger trades (see breakdown below). That, combined with the other observations convinced me that the MMs were taking care of a good customer.
That one large block trade all by itself was sufficient to mask the true short activity.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:1.4K $0.8003/$0.85.
09:30-09:42 opened the day with a 1,572 sell for $0.8009 & $0.8009 x 15, x 41, $0.83 x 85. B/a just after open was 200:8.1K $0.8003/$0.8220. Then came 9:32's 1.1K $0.8133/$0.8220/$0.8003/$0.8116/$0.8003/$0.8220, 9:33's b/a 4.2K:400 $0.80/$0.8199, 9:40's 9.3K $0.8146/82 (5K)/98/$0.80/$0.8198/$0.8011/00, 9:41's 53.4K $0.8197/$0.80/$0.8198/$0.80/$0.8198/$0.8099/$0.8198/00/$0.80/$0.8199/$0.80/$0.7950/$0.80/$0.79/$0.8199/$0.82/$0.8199/$0.79/$0.82/$0.8199/$0.8000/50/49/$0.8199/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.80/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8195/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8050/60/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.8197/$0.8060/$0.82.
The period ended on 9:42's 28.8K $0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/00/60/50/60/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8040/$0.82/$0.8049/$0.8199/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8000/60/$0.8220/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8043/00/43/10/00/43/00/50/$0.79/$0.8050/$0.8199/98/99/19/99/
9:43-10:19 had 9:43's b/a of 100:600 $0.8120/99 and began low/medium-volume $0.8120/$0.82, with rising lows, on 9:43's 1.2K $0.8120 and 9:44's 500 $0.8120/98/59/39. B/a at 9:45 was 400:600 $0.8120/99 (bids jiggling 2K $0.8119), 9:53 400:700 $0.8128/99 (bids rising quickly), 10:05 800:8.9K $0.8150/$0.82, 10:19 7.1K:1.7K $0.8150/98. The period ended on 10:19's 7.8K $0.8150.
10:20-10:55, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/medium-volume $0.8030/$0.815 on 10:22's 18.7K /$0.8150/69/51/69/50/69/50/69/50/69/50/69/50/69/50/50/45/$0.8075/$0.8150/$0.8145/$0.8145/$0.8000/16/00. B/a at 10:45 was 900:1.5K $0.8030/72. The period ended on 10:55's 200 $0.803.
10:56-11:36 did a big drop on 10:56's 8.1K $0.8000/30/25/00/$0.7950/99/$0.7999, had b/a at 11:02 of 1K:700 $0.7900/47, and did an extremely low/no-volume sag lower to hit 11:04's 900 $0.7901/00. B/a at 11:15 was 1K:600 $0.7900/1, 11:19 1.9K:600 $0.7900, 11:34 1.4K:1.3K $0.7900/48. The period ended on 11:36's400 $0.79.
11:37-13:18, after two no-trades minutes, did a drop on 11:39's 55.3K (incl 46K $0.7804 blk) $0.7804/25/$0.79/$0.7863/26/$0.79/$0.7825/04/50/27/50/27 and began an extremely low/no-volume rise through 12:09. B/a at 11:47 was 700:500, 12:02 1.7K:100 $0.7822/$0.79. 12:09's 200 hit $0.7822/98 to begin an wide extremely low/no-volume $0.7820/$0.7996 through 12:54. B/a at 12:11 was 400:600 $0.7822/$0.7995, 12:19 400:600 $0.7822/$0.7994, 12:32 200:600 $0.7820/$0.7994, 12:47 100:900 $0.7820/$0.7994. 12:55 dropped the low to $0.78. B/a at 13:02 was 6.4K:800 $0.78/$0.7994, 13:17 3K:1.6K $0.78/$0.7994. The period ended on 13:18's 400 $0.7800/1.
13:19-15:07 began a big mostly low volume drop through 13:36 on 13:19's 3.3K $0.78/$0.7718. 13:27's 2.1K hit $0.77/$0.7623. B/a at 13:32 was 200:800 $0.7650/84. 13:36's 700 hit $0.7510. That was followed by extremely low/no-volume $0.7500/97 through 14:45. B/a at 13:39 was 1.1K:500 $0.7510/80, 13:47 1.1K:800 $0.7510/47, 14:02 600:1K $0.7510/97, 14:17 300:1.6 $0.7501/86, 14:32 300:1.2K $0.7501/99. 14:46 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7547/94 (with falling highs). B/a at 14:47 was 200:800 $0.7501/96, 15:02 5K:975 $0.7550/87. The period ended on 15:07's 700 $0.7579/50.
15:08-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began the so-common extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher to set up for tomorrow on 15:10's 11.1K $0.7586/50. 15:14's 700 hit $0.7750/98/00. B/a at 15:15 was 400:100 $0.77/$0.7899, 15:32 369:100 $0.77/$0.7898. 15:33's 3K hit $0.77/$0.7998, 15:43's 1.6K hit $0.7861/$0.7987, and 15:45's 600 hit $0.7989/$0.80. B/a at 15:48 was 100:4.1K $0.78/$0.80. The period and day ended on 15:59's 100 $0.78 and 16:00's 114 $0.79. Mission accomplished!
There was one AH sell of 1K @ $0.76.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 86,834 (thanks to 11:39's $0.7804 45.8K), 24.61% of day's volume, with a $0.7886 VWAP. The VWAP was well below the day's $0.7943. I'm sure this, and much of today's negative behavior, was due to the MMs taking care of a "good customer" that wanted a a very attractive trade - either a buy or sell. Considering that larger trade, the count and percentage are at odds - count is low and percentage of day's volume is about normal.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Yesterday I noted { Of course, it could end tomorrow but I would expect that we would, as is more common in normal symbols that have normal mixtures of market sentiment (we've not had such for a long time), get the usual early warnings such as volume growth reducing or even declining volume, price range starting to show symptoms of rolling over, etc. }
We got those symptoms - volume growth reducing (and on a day with good PR too!) and first signs of rolling over (lower low and close). Of course the volume may not be that significant since yesterday's volume (~325K) was well above the 3/17 10-day average of ~125K. I'm not sure how much weight to give it.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I wrapped up discussion of the apparent strength (supported by the PR) with { So now I watch to see if we get a "three-day window" behavior or we immediately begin a big drop, as has been so common in the recent past. } Well, we didn't get either one - no second day of ebullient behavior in the market and no "big drop".
What we got instead was a fairly common open high and go a bit higher through ~10:00 and then a long drop through ~13:40. After a bit less than an hour of extremely low/no-volume sideways we got an also-typical (recently anyway) extremely low/no-volume walking the price range up to hit $0.80 (note the period ending 16:00 above), making the charts look much more attractive than they should.
I noted that { If we get the "three-day window", we have the possibility that a bullish cup and handle may form as the cup portion is now firmly developed. Something to watch for. }. Scratch that possibility I think.
Another FAIL! from yesterday: { Our high came within a penny of my $0.83 target and I think there's a strong possibility it will hit it tomorrow, and maybe even have a very nice overshoot. The stage is set. }. We got just $0.822, higher than yesterday, but not near enough to my $0.83 to declare victory.
The fast and slow EMS continued the rise began three days back and the fast EMA is $0.0284 above the slow EMA. This is supposed to be quite bullish. But yesterday it was above $0.0261 and it got us only a +2/10ths on the high and a lower low and close.
The day's range was again completely, and far, above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, which has a mid-point rising even more slowly now.
The last item here is that lower low. Our history is one of not being able to sustain up-moves. That low movement makes me think in't heading back down to the former resistance (descending red line), which is now support, to test it.
On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA had made its cross to rising, four days back declined 2/100ths of a penny and three day's back rose 6/100ths. Two days back it declined 2/100ths. Yesterday it flipped to rising again and I said if we get the behavior I expect I expect the rise to be more sustained.
Today we got only some of what I expected but it still rose - up 8/100ths of a penny to $0.7484. Although it's rising, a good thing, we know this symbol has a history of not maintaining an up-trend. Being above the 50-day, and looking at the stuff above, makes me worry that we're likely move back below the 50-day SMA.
If we hold here we'll get 9 days (was 9) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 1 (was 19) day of rise, a flat day and 16 more days of rise. The 50 will rise 14 (was 14) days, go flat 1 day, and begin the up/down waves with a three day decline. The 200-day would fall ~106 (was ~110) days and then rise about 30 days. As always, of course we won't just "hold here - we'll be doing normal up/down waves due to various types of traders, shorters and MMs affect the market, along with any news about the company or it's fundamentals.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every one. Williams %R and full stochastic entered overbought. All others, but for accumulation/distribution, are above neutral and RSi and MFI (untrusted by me) are just below overbought.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution. Every other oscillator deteriorated. Williams %R and full stochastic fell out of overbought. RSI, momentum, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6819 and $0.8027 ($0.6845 and $0.7969 yesterday), continued diverging with a rising mid-point, as the upper limit rose faster than the lower limit declined.
All in, everything I can see suggests the strength seen two days back, and bolstered by yesterday's PR, has dissipated already. Adding in the obvious manipulation in the last hour to drive price higher after a much weaker earlier part of the day and the intra-day buy percentage and VWAP behavior makes me really, really near-term bearish, as much as I detest that.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good and even worse is that the short percentage moved a bit further above my desired range (needs re-check), albeit a small move, and the buy percentage dropped big, from a strongly bullish range, but not so excessive that an overshoot of return to normal was suggested, to a range that strongly suggests near-term weakening. <*sigh*>
N.B. The one ~46K block trade - see breakdown above - all by itself was sufficient to mask the true short activity. What this means is that I was probably correct about the short percentage would be higher when I had that feeling during the day. We'll never be able to confirm either way though - the industry is too good a masking the information we really need.
The spread widened again, but this time a bad widening as it was an intra-day big drop on big volume vs. a big manipulated rise on extremely small volume that produced it. See the intra-day breakdown above and look at the volume percentages and VWAP and buy percentages movement.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after holding for two days at 11 negative and 13 positive, deteriorated to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 01/14 is $0.0365, 4.81%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2282%, 0.3424%, 0.3026%, 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, and -0.5653%.
All in, today's unconventional stuff completely undoes the positive indications of yesterday. I go near-term negative.
Bill
All the positive indications from yesterday were obliterated by today's stuff. I'm strongly near-term negative.
The intra-day behavior was one of classics - open high, go a bit higher, a short flattish period and then a big decline on most of the day's volume from around 10:00 through ~13:30ish. Then a short flattish period was followed by an extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher, likely as a set-up for tomorrows action to suck some folks in.
I commented on stocktwits that I thought MMs were taking care of some "good customers" today. I expected the short percentage to be higher before I did my EOD stuff and saw that 45.8K block trade, and other larger trades (see breakdown below). That, combined with the other observations convinced me that the MMs were taking care of a good customer.
That one large block trade all by itself was sufficient to mask the true short activity.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:1.4K $0.8003/$0.85.
09:30-09:42 opened the day with a 1,572 sell for $0.8009 & $0.8009 x 15, x 41, $0.83 x 85. B/a just after open was 200:8.1K $0.8003/$0.8220. Then came 9:32's 1.1K $0.8133/$0.8220/$0.8003/$0.8116/$0.8003/$0.8220, 9:33's b/a 4.2K:400 $0.80/$0.8199, 9:40's 9.3K $0.8146/82 (5K)/98/$0.80/$0.8198/$0.8011/00, 9:41's 53.4K $0.8197/$0.80/$0.8198/$0.80/$0.8198/$0.8099/$0.8198/00/$0.80/$0.8199/$0.80/$0.7950/$0.80/$0.79/$0.8199/$0.82/$0.8199/$0.79/$0.82/$0.8199/$0.8000/50/49/$0.8199/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.80/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8195/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8050/60/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.8197/$0.8060/$0.82.
The period ended on 9:42's 28.8K $0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/00/60/50/60/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8040/$0.82/$0.8049/$0.8199/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8000/60/$0.8220/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8050/$0.82/$0.8060/$0.82/$0.8043/00/43/10/00/43/00/50/$0.79/$0.8050/$0.8199/98/99/19/99/
9:43-10:19 had 9:43's b/a of 100:600 $0.8120/99 and began low/medium-volume $0.8120/$0.82, with rising lows, on 9:43's 1.2K $0.8120 and 9:44's 500 $0.8120/98/59/39. B/a at 9:45 was 400:600 $0.8120/99 (bids jiggling 2K $0.8119), 9:53 400:700 $0.8128/99 (bids rising quickly), 10:05 800:8.9K $0.8150/$0.82, 10:19 7.1K:1.7K $0.8150/98. The period ended on 10:19's 7.8K $0.8150.
10:20-10:55, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/medium-volume $0.8030/$0.815 on 10:22's 18.7K /$0.8150/69/51/69/50/69/50/69/50/69/50/69/50/69/50/50/45/$0.8075/$0.8150/$0.8145/$0.8145/$0.8000/16/00. B/a at 10:45 was 900:1.5K $0.8030/72. The period ended on 10:55's 200 $0.803.
10:56-11:36 did a big drop on 10:56's 8.1K $0.8000/30/25/00/$0.7950/99/$0.7999, had b/a at 11:02 of 1K:700 $0.7900/47, and did an extremely low/no-volume sag lower to hit 11:04's 900 $0.7901/00. B/a at 11:15 was 1K:600 $0.7900/1, 11:19 1.9K:600 $0.7900, 11:34 1.4K:1.3K $0.7900/48. The period ended on 11:36's400 $0.79.
11:37-13:18, after two no-trades minutes, did a drop on 11:39's 55.3K (incl 46K $0.7804 blk) $0.7804/25/$0.79/$0.7863/26/$0.79/$0.7825/04/50/27/50/27 and began an extremely low/no-volume rise through 12:09. B/a at 11:47 was 700:500, 12:02 1.7K:100 $0.7822/$0.79. 12:09's 200 hit $0.7822/98 to begin an wide extremely low/no-volume $0.7820/$0.7996 through 12:54. B/a at 12:11 was 400:600 $0.7822/$0.7995, 12:19 400:600 $0.7822/$0.7994, 12:32 200:600 $0.7820/$0.7994, 12:47 100:900 $0.7820/$0.7994. 12:55 dropped the low to $0.78. B/a at 13:02 was 6.4K:800 $0.78/$0.7994, 13:17 3K:1.6K $0.78/$0.7994. The period ended on 13:18's 400 $0.7800/1.
13:19-15:07 began a big mostly low volume drop through 13:36 on 13:19's 3.3K $0.78/$0.7718. 13:27's 2.1K hit $0.77/$0.7623. B/a at 13:32 was 200:800 $0.7650/84. 13:36's 700 hit $0.7510. That was followed by extremely low/no-volume $0.7500/97 through 14:45. B/a at 13:39 was 1.1K:500 $0.7510/80, 13:47 1.1K:800 $0.7510/47, 14:02 600:1K $0.7510/97, 14:17 300:1.6 $0.7501/86, 14:32 300:1.2K $0.7501/99. 14:46 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7547/94 (with falling highs). B/a at 14:47 was 200:800 $0.7501/96, 15:02 5K:975 $0.7550/87. The period ended on 15:07's 700 $0.7579/50.
15:08-16:00, after two no-trades minutes, began the so-common extremely low/no-volume manipulated, IMO, push higher to set up for tomorrow on 15:10's 11.1K $0.7586/50. 15:14's 700 hit $0.7750/98/00. B/a at 15:15 was 400:100 $0.77/$0.7899, 15:32 369:100 $0.77/$0.7898. 15:33's 3K hit $0.77/$0.7998, 15:43's 1.6K hit $0.7861/$0.7987, and 15:45's 600 hit $0.7989/$0.80. B/a at 15:48 was 100:4.1K $0.78/$0.80. The period and day ended on 15:59's 100 $0.78 and 16:00's 114 $0.79. Mission accomplished!
There was one AH sell of 1K @ $0.76.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 86,834 (thanks to 11:39's $0.7804 45.8K), 24.61% of day's volume, with a $0.7886 VWAP. The VWAP was well below the day's $0.7943. I'm sure this, and much of today's negative behavior, was due to the MMs taking care of a "good customer" that wanted a a very attractive trade - either a buy or sell. Considering that larger trade, the count and percentage are at odds - count is low and percentage of day's volume is about normal.
Buy percentage and VWAP moving right along together - mostly lower all day long. Even the extremely low/no-volume push up into the close produced only a 1/2 penny change in VWAP.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:42 67838 $0.7900 $0.8220 $55,297.50 $0.8151 19.23% 56.59% Incl 09:40 $0.8182 5,000
10:19 49249 $0.8119 $0.8200 $40,202.34 $0.8163 13.96% 48.56% Incl 10:10 $0.8163 8,000 10:19 $0.8151 7,000
10:55 42280 $0.8000 $0.8183 $34,229.54 $0.8096 11.98% 38.65% Incl 10:39 $0.8030 5,000
11:36 31953 $0.7900 $0.8030 $25,328.83 $0.7927 9.06% 35.58% Incl 11:15 $0.7900 7,000
13:18 95524 $0.7800 $0.7998 $74,712.26 $0.7821 27.08% 25.75% Incl 11:39 $0.7804 45,834
15:07 45199 $0.7500 $0.7800 $34,483.46 $0.7629 12.81% 30.74% Incl 13:49 $0.7597 4,000 14:45 $0.7597 5,000
16:00 17814 $0.7550 $0.8000 $13,666.79 $0.7672 5.05% 31.68%
18:06 1000 $0.7600 $0.7600 $760.00 $0.7600 0.28% 31.59%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The low and close, combined, look quite ominous when we see continued rising volume on a down day. Considering we never got my $0.83, although $0.82 may be "close enough for government work", on the day of the order PR, and we couldn't get a 2nd day of pop within my "three-day window", I suspect very strongly that the strength seen yesterday was a one-day wonder event and my bullish assessment was as wrong as it could be.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 4.91% -1.76% 0.24% -1.25% 8.30%
Prior 0.45% 1.79% 5.53% 5.28% 92.95%
Yesterday I noted { Of course, it could end tomorrow but I would expect that we would, as is more common in normal symbols that have normal mixtures of market sentiment (we've not had such for a long time), get the usual early warnings such as volume growth reducing or even declining volume, price range starting to show symptoms of rolling over, etc. }
We got those symptoms - volume growth reducing (and on a day with good PR too!) and first signs of rolling over (lower low and close). Of course the volume may not be that significant since yesterday's volume (~325K) was well above the 3/17 10-day average of ~125K. I'm not sure how much weight to give it.
On my minimal chart, yesterday I wrapped up discussion of the apparent strength (supported by the PR) with { So now I watch to see if we get a "three-day window" behavior or we immediately begin a big drop, as has been so common in the recent past. } Well, we didn't get either one - no second day of ebullient behavior in the market and no "big drop".
What we got instead was a fairly common open high and go a bit higher through ~10:00 and then a long drop through ~13:40. After a bit less than an hour of extremely low/no-volume sideways we got an also-typical (recently anyway) extremely low/no-volume walking the price range up to hit $0.80 (note the period ending 16:00 above), making the charts look much more attractive than they should.
I noted that { If we get the "three-day window", we have the possibility that a bullish cup and handle may form as the cup portion is now firmly developed. Something to watch for. }. Scratch that possibility I think.
Another FAIL! from yesterday: { Our high came within a penny of my $0.83 target and I think there's a strong possibility it will hit it tomorrow, and maybe even have a very nice overshoot. The stage is set. }. We got just $0.822, higher than yesterday, but not near enough to my $0.83 to declare victory.
The fast and slow EMS continued the rise began three days back and the fast EMA is $0.0284 above the slow EMA. This is supposed to be quite bullish. But yesterday it was above $0.0261 and it got us only a +2/10ths on the high and a lower low and close.
The day's range was again completely, and far, above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, which has a mid-point rising even more slowly now.
The last item here is that lower low. Our history is one of not being able to sustain up-moves. That low movement makes me think in't heading back down to the former resistance (descending red line), which is now support, to test it.
On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA had made its cross to rising, four days back declined 2/100ths of a penny and three day's back rose 6/100ths. Two days back it declined 2/100ths. Yesterday it flipped to rising again and I said if we get the behavior I expect I expect the rise to be more sustained.
Today we got only some of what I expected but it still rose - up 8/100ths of a penny to $0.7484. Although it's rising, a good thing, we know this symbol has a history of not maintaining an up-trend. Being above the 50-day, and looking at the stuff above, makes me worry that we're likely move back below the 50-day SMA.
If we hold here we'll get 9 days (was 9) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 1 (was 19) day of rise, a flat day and 16 more days of rise. The 50 will rise 14 (was 14) days, go flat 1 day, and begin the up/down waves with a three day decline. The 200-day would fall ~106 (was ~110) days and then rise about 30 days. As always, of course we won't just "hold here - we'll be doing normal up/down waves due to various types of traders, shorters and MMs affect the market, along with any news about the company or it's fundamentals.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every one. Williams %R and full stochastic entered overbought. All others, but for accumulation/distribution, are above neutral and RSi and MFI (untrusted by me) are just below overbought.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution. Every other oscillator deteriorated. Williams %R and full stochastic fell out of overbought. RSI, momentum, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6819 and $0.8027 ($0.6845 and $0.7969 yesterday), continued diverging with a rising mid-point, as the upper limit rose faster than the lower limit declined.
All in, everything I can see suggests the strength seen two days back, and bolstered by yesterday's PR, has dissipated already. Adding in the obvious manipulation in the last hour to drive price higher after a much weaker earlier part of the day and the intra-day buy percentage and VWAP behavior makes me really, really near-term bearish, as much as I detest that.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good and even worse is that the short percentage moved a bit further above my desired range (needs re-check), albeit a small move, and the buy percentage dropped big, from a strongly bullish range, but not so excessive that an overshoot of return to normal was suggested, to a range that strongly suggests near-term weakening. <*sigh*>
N.B. The one ~46K block trade - see breakdown above - all by itself was sufficient to mask the true short activity. What this means is that I was probably correct about the short percentage would be higher when I had that feeling during the day. We'll never be able to confirm either way though - the industry is too good a masking the information we really need.
The spread widened again, but this time a bad widening as it was an intra-day big drop on big volume vs. a big manipulated rise on extremely small volume that produced it. See the intra-day breakdown above and look at the volume percentages and VWAP and buy percentages movement.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after holding for two days at 11 negative and 13 positive, deteriorated to 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 01/14 is $0.0365, 4.81%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2282%, 0.3424%, 0.3026%, 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, and -0.5653%.
All in, today's unconventional stuff completely undoes the positive indications of yesterday. I go near-term negative.
Bill
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