Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTNP)

[Doctor Detroit]

Zacks EU (cont)

Translating that, 15% of $2 billion is a $300 million market. But how many potential users? The price (in Germany and England at least) appears to be 3 Euro a day on average for the drug component of “opioid substitution treatment”, or about 90 Euro a month. 90 Euro= $97 dollars. So dividing $300 million by $100 you get 3 million as the total number of prescriptions written in a year. Divide that by 12 (months), and there are 250,000 people using buprenorphine on a monthly basis in Europe.

Assuming statistics are the same as in the US, roughly half of that number (125,000) are stabilized on 8mg a day. 1% of the potential patient market = 1,250. If probuphine can capture 5% of the market, that’s 6,250 patients, or 12,500 prescriptions a year.

What price? Zacks discounts the $4,950 US cost by 45% to equal $2,722. Add in a 20% discount to that for rebates, sales commissions, returns, etc. and you have a unit price of $2,178.

12,500 prescriptions @ $2,178 a treatment = annual sales of $27,225,000. The rods cost approximately $400 per treatment to make (total of $5 million), so that equals $22.225 million in profit to be split between Titan and its partner.