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No offense but dividing what you believe to

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Womack Member Profile
 
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Womack   Monday, 03/20/17 11:21:38 PM
Re: HokieHead post# 14788
Post # of 20426 
No offense but dividing what you believe to be the implied value by the number of shares outstanding doesn't give a realistic depiction of the true value of the firm. I'm not saying this in a bashing sense either, I just want you to be aware that there are far more variables that come into play in equity valuation than a simple division equation.

It is literally IMPOSSIBLE to come up with any realistic estimates other than ULTRA speculative ones based on the expected cash flows that this refinery will bring in... In order to even attempt forecasting those cash flows you would first have to come up with what you thing would be a realistic range that crude will be priced at during the expected completion date which likely wouldn't be until 2019 as the CEO stated.

I am in no way shape or form trying to be a pessimist here, just a realist. You cannot apply a FCFF model to this, nor can you apply a residual income model, and obviously you cannot apply a DDM model to this. In terms of valuation, at least until more information is released, you are literally throwing darts in the dark.

Best of luck to everyone here, I'm still searching for a sold reentry point.


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