Monday, March 20, 2017 11:21:38 PM
It is literally IMPOSSIBLE to come up with any realistic estimates other than ULTRA speculative ones based on the expected cash flows that this refinery will bring in... In order to even attempt forecasting those cash flows you would first have to come up with what you thing would be a realistic range that crude will be priced at during the expected completion date which likely wouldn't be until 2019 as the CEO stated.
I am in no way shape or form trying to be a pessimist here, just a realist. You cannot apply a FCFF model to this, nor can you apply a residual income model, and obviously you cannot apply a DDM model to this. In terms of valuation, at least until more information is released, you are literally throwing darts in the dark.
Best of luck to everyone here, I'm still searching for a sold reentry point.
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