AI
Monday, March 20, 2017 8:36:17 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/16 2017 EOD
Today is exceptionally late because of a data-feed problem from my ETrade platform, never corrected by their provider. So I had to construct certain data manually from ADVFN's trades screens - thankfully it was a low-volume day. Thank goodness I have cross-checks on everything and, as much as possible, no "single point of failure" if I can avoid it. Anyway, the odd-lot percentage will be exceptionally low today because the trades screens provide them and my normal ETrade feed is unable to do so.
Everything considered, I think we may be seeing the return of the up-leg that was interrupted. Only the low volume is negative, suggesting little strength in the up move. However, a change in trend is often begun this way as it takes time for folks to begin believing - indecision rules the day.
Today's intra-day behavior was generally an extremely low/no-volume rise in the lows throughout the day with flat highs, a step up and flat into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 2.2K:100 $0.7115/$0.78.
09:30-10:19 opened the day with a 1,239 sell for $0.72 & $0.75 x 2K & $0.75 x 89. B/a just after open was 1.8K:6K $0.72/5. Then came 9:34's b/a 2.8K:6K $0.72/5, 9:43's b/a 2.8K:13K $0.72/5, 9:45's $0.7201 and $0.72 x 35 each, 9:47's $0.72 x 1 and 9, 9:49's 1.4K $0.75/$0.7499/$0.75/$0.72 (100), 9:51's b/a 2.6K:12.1K $0.72/5, 9:54's 15 $0.75, 9:57's b/a 9.1K:12.1K $0.72/5, 10:09's 200 $0.75/3, 10:11's b/a 6.2K:12.9K $0.75, 10:04's 1 $0.75, 10:18's b/a 6.3K:12.9K $0.73/5. The period ended on 10:19's 1.5K $0.7478/$0.7312/$0.75/$0.74/$0.73.
10:20-12:04, during the first 12 no-trades minutes had 10:21's b/a 6.2K:12.4K $0.73/5 and 10:32's b/a 6.2K:200 $0.73/$0.7499 (those 12K+ $0.75 offers are still presented too). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.74/5 on 10:32's 200 $0.7499. B/a at 10:43 was 1.9K:12.5K $0.7401/$0.75, 10:49 1.8K:12.3K $0.7401/$0.75, 11:02 500:12.5K $0.7402/$0.75, 11:12 2.1K:12.6K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:33 2.1K:12.7K $0.7404/$0.75. Volume was interrupted by 11:40's 8.9K $0.75/$0.7452/$0.75/$0.7404 (7.9K was $0.75). B/a at 11:47 was 2.3K:5.5K $0.7405/$0.75, 12:02 500:2.3K $0.7499/$0.75. The period ended on 12:04's ~2.6K $0.75.
12:05-14:29, after nine no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. no trades 12:15-12:48) $0.7501/88 (most low $0.750x until 13:52) on 12:14's 100 $0.7588. B/a at 12:15 was 700:400 $0.7501/88, 12:23 1.8K:400 $0.7502/88, 12:33 1.8K:400 $0.7502/88, 12:47 1.7K:400 $0.7503/88, 13:02 1.9K:400 $0.7504/88. Volume was interrupted by 13:02's 5.3K $0.7505/16/04. B/a at 13:04 was 200:1K $0.7501/88, 13:17 2K:2.3K $0.7501/88. Volume was moved to low/medium-volume by 13:20's 3.3K $0.7501 and 13:31's 3.8K $0.7525 (3K)/01 and lasted through 13:45. 13:32 1.6K:2.3K $0.7502/88. Volume switched back to extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 13:47 was 7.6K:900 $0.7500/50, 14:02 900:2.9K $0.7502/40, 14:17 700:800 $0.7502/20. The period ended on 14:29's 100 $0.7589.
14:30-15:59 during the first three no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 1K:100 $0.7510/90. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7504/$0.76, with rising lows, on 14:33's 100 $0.76. B/a at 14:43 was 1.2K:4.7K $0.7507/$0.76, 14:49 1.2K:5.3K $0.7517/$0.76. By 14:55 lows were up to $0.7523. B/a at 15:02 was 900:4.1K $0.7501/$0.76, 15:17 1.7K:4.1K $0.7502/$0.76, 15:32 1.7K:4.2K $0.7502/$0.76, 15:47 1.8K:4.1K $0.7502/$0.76. The last non-odd-lot trade was 15:50's 100 $0.76, the official close for the day because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade and the odd-lot trades that came on 15:53's 6 $0.7502, 15:56's 75 $0.7503 and 15:59's 18 $0.76 are not permitted to be an official metric.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 31,358, 33.07% of day's volume, with a $0.7544 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems reasonable. The percentage of days trade is a little high, but not really excessive. The VWAP is above the day's $0.7518, so we have the usual suspects - MMs and shorters covering - but it's higher by a substantial margin than when I normally suspect those culprits to be the prime movers.
I'm suspecting that we may have retail folks in too! Low volume or not, check the table below for what the VWAP and buy percentage has been doing and my comments about that.
I may have to furlough my TFH to make sure it doesn't unduly cloud my judgement! NAH!
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, the big news today is we closed above the descending resistance of the consolidation triangle (descending red line)! If we close above again tomorrow we have a confirmed breakout. We could still go lower, riding the former resistance, now support, down, but it does give us "head room" for any attempt to move up.
Recall yesterday's discussion of the candlestick ended with { ... if it breaks up, as Bulkowski says it does 35% of the time, it has good performance with a bullish reversal during a bearish trend. }. We don;t (yet!) have the volume nor the confirmation, but if we get both I think my $0.83 before substantial resistance is looking reasonable. We do have some pause points that could become resistance, e.g. $0.80, but these were only price levels in a sideways consolidation and not big reversal points and thus less reliable than regular reversals from a major trend. We can't ignore them though - they can turn into strong support or resistance.
$0.83 should be seriously considered as it was the bottom of the middle of a "Big M' pattern that did lead to a longer down trend.
Today's behavior fits perfectly with yesterday's { ... the weakness indicated by a lower high and the intra-day behavior is not supported by the volume, which was extremely low. It rose, but only marginally. As with yesterday, the bad part of that is that prices are easily moved by those with the desire and means (e.g. MMs, shorters). } Fortunately, it looks like no one wanted to move prices lower today, which fits with my top-of-post summary yesterday { The MMs do need to generate some volume though, so there is a possibility they will start moving range up a bit to see if they can draw in market participants. But nothing in the technical stuff I track suggests, yet, that we have a bullish bias developing within consolidation. I'm still of the belief that we have bottomed and have thus far been wrong about when and how the leg up would progress. We tried to get it going but it fizzled to to lack of interest, even with the positive PR, I guess. }
If today's breakout is confirmed I think the leg up has re-started and we will get to my $0.83 target, in fits and starts maybe.
The fast and slow EMS stopped weakening and began rising. The fast EMA is no longer below the slow and has crossed above it by a small margin - supposedly a strong bullish indication.
One of the candlestick possibilities mentioned yesterday was an inverted hammer. We didn't get that. We got a regular "doji", just indicating indecision, common when a support or resistance is crossed.
Most of the day's range was above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, which switched from a declining mid-point to a rising one.
On my one-year chart the pull up and away from the long-term descending support (former resistance) line continued. Unlike yesterday, it was not purely due to the drop of the line. We got a rise in range.
The 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA had made its cross to rising, yesterday declined 2/100ths of a penny and today rose 6/100ths.
The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued declining but as the 20-day declined faster, the 10-day moved from 1.95 to 1.84 cents below the 20-day.
If we hold here we'll get 2 days (was 3 declining) of flat 10-day SMA and then 7 days of a slow rise. The 20-day would have 5 (was 13) days of decline followed by 4 days of rise. The 50 will decline 1 day (was 9), go flat 1 say and then rise 15 days. I don't expect this as price rises and falls in waves. The 200-day would fall ~120 (was ~153) days, a big improvement.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had a flat RSI and Williams %R. There was improvement in momentum and full stochastic. Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related.
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. A decline occurred in MFI (untrusted by me). RSI and Williams %R are above neutral, momentum is at neutral, and the rest are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6907 and $0.7777 ($0.6915 and $0.7750 yesterday), flipped from converging to diverging with a rising mid-point as the upper limit rose faster than the lower limit declined.
All in, I think the leg-up has returned and I expect a near-term continued rise is most likely.
Since 3/18, VWAP has been raggedly trending up. I've been suspicious of it due to the intra-day behavior and the intra-day and ending buy percentage bounces from one extreme to the other. The suspicion continues due to the low volume, but it's beginning to look a bit more positive as other factors appear.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normal, and the short percentage is well below my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is in a range that suggests near-term appreciation is most likely. Combined with the low short percentage, this may be all positive in aggregate.
The spread widened a bit and moved further from the range where I expect near-term consolidation is indicated. Combined with how it was produced, a general rise in the lows in the first 2.5 hours of the day, I think this widening suggests more near-term upside as most likely, The low volume suggests it won't be a large or sudden move though.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 12 negatives and 12 positives for the fourth consecutive day. Change since 02/09 is $0.0144, 1.95%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, and 0.2106%.
All in, near-term improvement seems most likely.
Bill
Today is exceptionally late because of a data-feed problem from my ETrade platform, never corrected by their provider. So I had to construct certain data manually from ADVFN's trades screens - thankfully it was a low-volume day. Thank goodness I have cross-checks on everything and, as much as possible, no "single point of failure" if I can avoid it. Anyway, the odd-lot percentage will be exceptionally low today because the trades screens provide them and my normal ETrade feed is unable to do so.
Everything considered, I think we may be seeing the return of the up-leg that was interrupted. Only the low volume is negative, suggesting little strength in the up move. However, a change in trend is often begun this way as it takes time for folks to begin believing - indecision rules the day.
Today's intra-day behavior was generally an extremely low/no-volume rise in the lows throughout the day with flat highs, a step up and flat into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 2.2K:100 $0.7115/$0.78.
09:30-10:19 opened the day with a 1,239 sell for $0.72 & $0.75 x 2K & $0.75 x 89. B/a just after open was 1.8K:6K $0.72/5. Then came 9:34's b/a 2.8K:6K $0.72/5, 9:43's b/a 2.8K:13K $0.72/5, 9:45's $0.7201 and $0.72 x 35 each, 9:47's $0.72 x 1 and 9, 9:49's 1.4K $0.75/$0.7499/$0.75/$0.72 (100), 9:51's b/a 2.6K:12.1K $0.72/5, 9:54's 15 $0.75, 9:57's b/a 9.1K:12.1K $0.72/5, 10:09's 200 $0.75/3, 10:11's b/a 6.2K:12.9K $0.75, 10:04's 1 $0.75, 10:18's b/a 6.3K:12.9K $0.73/5. The period ended on 10:19's 1.5K $0.7478/$0.7312/$0.75/$0.74/$0.73.
10:20-12:04, during the first 12 no-trades minutes had 10:21's b/a 6.2K:12.4K $0.73/5 and 10:32's b/a 6.2K:200 $0.73/$0.7499 (those 12K+ $0.75 offers are still presented too). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.74/5 on 10:32's 200 $0.7499. B/a at 10:43 was 1.9K:12.5K $0.7401/$0.75, 10:49 1.8K:12.3K $0.7401/$0.75, 11:02 500:12.5K $0.7402/$0.75, 11:12 2.1K:12.6K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:33 2.1K:12.7K $0.7404/$0.75. Volume was interrupted by 11:40's 8.9K $0.75/$0.7452/$0.75/$0.7404 (7.9K was $0.75). B/a at 11:47 was 2.3K:5.5K $0.7405/$0.75, 12:02 500:2.3K $0.7499/$0.75. The period ended on 12:04's ~2.6K $0.75.
12:05-14:29, after nine no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. no trades 12:15-12:48) $0.7501/88 (most low $0.750x until 13:52) on 12:14's 100 $0.7588. B/a at 12:15 was 700:400 $0.7501/88, 12:23 1.8K:400 $0.7502/88, 12:33 1.8K:400 $0.7502/88, 12:47 1.7K:400 $0.7503/88, 13:02 1.9K:400 $0.7504/88. Volume was interrupted by 13:02's 5.3K $0.7505/16/04. B/a at 13:04 was 200:1K $0.7501/88, 13:17 2K:2.3K $0.7501/88. Volume was moved to low/medium-volume by 13:20's 3.3K $0.7501 and 13:31's 3.8K $0.7525 (3K)/01 and lasted through 13:45. 13:32 1.6K:2.3K $0.7502/88. Volume switched back to extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 13:47 was 7.6K:900 $0.7500/50, 14:02 900:2.9K $0.7502/40, 14:17 700:800 $0.7502/20. The period ended on 14:29's 100 $0.7589.
14:30-15:59 during the first three no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:32 of 1K:100 $0.7510/90. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7504/$0.76, with rising lows, on 14:33's 100 $0.76. B/a at 14:43 was 1.2K:4.7K $0.7507/$0.76, 14:49 1.2K:5.3K $0.7517/$0.76. By 14:55 lows were up to $0.7523. B/a at 15:02 was 900:4.1K $0.7501/$0.76, 15:17 1.7K:4.1K $0.7502/$0.76, 15:32 1.7K:4.2K $0.7502/$0.76, 15:47 1.8K:4.1K $0.7502/$0.76. The last non-odd-lot trade was 15:50's 100 $0.76, the official close for the day because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade and the odd-lot trades that came on 15:53's 6 $0.7502, 15:56's 75 $0.7503 and 15:59's 18 $0.76 are not permitted to be an official metric.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 31,358, 33.07% of day's volume, with a $0.7544 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems reasonable. The percentage of days trade is a little high, but not really excessive. The VWAP is above the day's $0.7518, so we have the usual suspects - MMs and shorters covering - but it's higher by a substantial margin than when I normally suspect those culprits to be the prime movers.
I'm suspecting that we may have retail folks in too! Low volume or not, check the table below for what the VWAP and buy percentage has been doing and my comments about that.
Look at those buy percentages! They could become addicting! Since the start of march we've had several days that had elevated buy percentages. Often they have been followed by steep drops and a big "overshoot", going far below "normal" range though. Maybe this is an effect of the announced cost reductions in conjunction with a couple recent decent order announcements?Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:19 6504 $0.7200 $0.7500 $4,827.22 $0.7422 6.86% 72.05%
12:04 25218 $0.7400 $0.7588 $18,859.25 $0.7478 26.60% 76.12% Incl 11:40 $0.7500 5,200
14:29 49743 $0.7500 $0.7590 $37,548.84 $0.7549 52.46% 61.87% Incl 13:02 $0.7516 4,700
14:17 $0.7590 5,000 8,000
15:59 13344 $0.7500 $0.7600 $10,045.39 $0.7528 14.07% 54.57% Incl 14:36 $0.7532 4,000 14:42 $0.7504 4,458
I may have to furlough my TFH to make sure it doesn't unduly cloud my judgement! NAH!
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
My only complaint today would be the volume - although rising, suggesting strengthening in the move up - it's still to low to be considered a good indicator. But every trend start with the first step and this may be it. The low held steady (3rd day at $0.72!) and three of the last four days have had higher highs.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.03% 0.00% 1.35% 5.56% 16.23%
Prior 6.99% 2.71% 0.08% -1.71% -55.56%
On my minimal chart, the big news today is we closed above the descending resistance of the consolidation triangle (descending red line)! If we close above again tomorrow we have a confirmed breakout. We could still go lower, riding the former resistance, now support, down, but it does give us "head room" for any attempt to move up.
Recall yesterday's discussion of the candlestick ended with { ... if it breaks up, as Bulkowski says it does 35% of the time, it has good performance with a bullish reversal during a bearish trend. }. We don;t (yet!) have the volume nor the confirmation, but if we get both I think my $0.83 before substantial resistance is looking reasonable. We do have some pause points that could become resistance, e.g. $0.80, but these were only price levels in a sideways consolidation and not big reversal points and thus less reliable than regular reversals from a major trend. We can't ignore them though - they can turn into strong support or resistance.
$0.83 should be seriously considered as it was the bottom of the middle of a "Big M' pattern that did lead to a longer down trend.
Today's behavior fits perfectly with yesterday's { ... the weakness indicated by a lower high and the intra-day behavior is not supported by the volume, which was extremely low. It rose, but only marginally. As with yesterday, the bad part of that is that prices are easily moved by those with the desire and means (e.g. MMs, shorters). } Fortunately, it looks like no one wanted to move prices lower today, which fits with my top-of-post summary yesterday { The MMs do need to generate some volume though, so there is a possibility they will start moving range up a bit to see if they can draw in market participants. But nothing in the technical stuff I track suggests, yet, that we have a bullish bias developing within consolidation. I'm still of the belief that we have bottomed and have thus far been wrong about when and how the leg up would progress. We tried to get it going but it fizzled to to lack of interest, even with the positive PR, I guess. }
If today's breakout is confirmed I think the leg up has re-started and we will get to my $0.83 target, in fits and starts maybe.
The fast and slow EMS stopped weakening and began rising. The fast EMA is no longer below the slow and has crossed above it by a small margin - supposedly a strong bullish indication.
One of the candlestick possibilities mentioned yesterday was an inverted hammer. We didn't get that. We got a regular "doji", just indicating indecision, common when a support or resistance is crossed.
Most of the day's range was above the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, which switched from a declining mid-point to a rising one.
On my one-year chart the pull up and away from the long-term descending support (former resistance) line continued. Unlike yesterday, it was not purely due to the drop of the line. We got a rise in range.
The 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA had made its cross to rising, yesterday declined 2/100ths of a penny and today rose 6/100ths.
The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued declining but as the 20-day declined faster, the 10-day moved from 1.95 to 1.84 cents below the 20-day.
If we hold here we'll get 2 days (was 3 declining) of flat 10-day SMA and then 7 days of a slow rise. The 20-day would have 5 (was 13) days of decline followed by 4 days of rise. The 50 will decline 1 day (was 9), go flat 1 say and then rise 15 days. I don't expect this as price rises and falls in waves. The 200-day would fall ~120 (was ~153) days, a big improvement.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had a flat RSI and Williams %R. There was improvement in momentum and full stochastic. Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related.
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. A decline occurred in MFI (untrusted by me). RSI and Williams %R are above neutral, momentum is at neutral, and the rest are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6907 and $0.7777 ($0.6915 and $0.7750 yesterday), flipped from converging to diverging with a rising mid-point as the upper limit rose faster than the lower limit declined.
All in, I think the leg-up has returned and I expect a near-term continued rise is most likely.
Since 3/18, VWAP has been raggedly trending up. I've been suspicious of it due to the intra-day behavior and the intra-day and ending buy percentage bounces from one extreme to the other. The suspicion continues due to the low volume, but it's beginning to look a bit more positive as other factors appear.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normal, and the short percentage is well below my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is in a range that suggests near-term appreciation is most likely. Combined with the low short percentage, this may be all positive in aggregate.
The spread widened a bit and moved further from the range where I expect near-term consolidation is indicated. Combined with how it was produced, a general rise in the lows in the first 2.5 hours of the day, I think this widening suggests more near-term upside as most likely, The low volume suggests it won't be a large or sudden move though.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 12 negatives and 12 positives for the fourth consecutive day. Change since 02/09 is $0.0144, 1.95%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1137%, 0.1860%, 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, and 0.2106%.
All in, near-term improvement seems most likely.
Bill
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