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:) Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash Analysis
By Martin Armstrong | March 18, 2017

Analysis for the Week of March 20, 2017

We should see a trend change come May in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 2085133 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 2085133 to 1983109. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Mar. 17, 2017, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term with a distinct bullish undertone suggesting caution on the daily level trading above the December 2016 high, however this was an inside trading day so technical closing support lies at 2089350 and a close beneath that will suggest a retest of support first. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2091462 and is trading up about 5.82% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution following the high established Thu. Mar. 16, 2017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 27th at 2116911, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks from the high of the week of February 27th, which has been a move of 1.80% percent in a stark panic type decline. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 27th has exceeded the previous high of 1844988 made back during the week of September 19th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 1788356 made the week of October 31st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 25 weeks overall. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in January 2016.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1739916 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.

Broadly, my expanded view anticipation recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been a long-term Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials which remains in motion as long as we hold above 1545054 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.

Consequently, this has been a 8 year rally in motion since 2009. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 1976260, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 1545056 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 1998763 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 1545056 intraday will negate that outcome.

Inspecting the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2024 and 2026. There is a likelihood of a rally moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. Eyeing the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. However, our Panic Cycle targets for the period ahead to watch are during 2016 and during 2026. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.

Eyeing the immediate trend remains bullish since February made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 weeks. The last weekly level low was 1788356, which formed during the week of October 31st, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 2116911, which was created during the week of February 27th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 2085133, which was created during February.

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