I think the rise in PPS is due to a couple of things. Mainly, as a long time long, I see it as a result of the low probability of bad news coming out as happened in the last several years i.e. the missed revenue forecast for Fusilev, crawling back to over 30M per Q to be slammed again by losing the patent trial, getting a rollout in Evomela delayed by 5 months due to the CRL, and lastly, being misled on thinking there was a serious chance of Qapzola being approved last year. So I don't see any type of that ‘stuff’ happening anymore. Couple that with around $130M in sales of their ‘boring’ drugs this year and I think you got a good floor to move forward. Subtle pressure to maintain the prices in the $6 -7 neighborhood (I think) was provided by the Evomela rise in sales from $5.9 to 9.4 in the 4th Qtr. What will drive the price higher (I think) is for sales of Evomela to keep on rising. I took a stab at it in post 1615 guessing sales will go to ~$11M next Q. Spectrum figured they are playing in a $100M market while Ligand has it at $150M. [Note -I’m thinking as per post 1615 it realistically a $80M market based on the info that was provided at the recent quarterly. Another poster, stugwins, figured melphalan is a $40ish M market but we are at this point now.] That should keep the price in the $6.50 to 7.50 range (I guess). Anyhows, we’re going to find out relatively soon as the next quarterly is in 7 weeks. After the next quarterly, I think that realistic drivers are close of enrollment for the Rolontis trial sometime this year and maybe some kind of licensing for the drug in the EU. If we don’t hear anything by Hamni on the Rolontis Korean metastaic BC trial by ASCO in June then I’d assume that study wasn’t ‘impressive’. We’d have to wait till next year on the P2 EGFR mutant NSCLCs study w MD Anderson (even though Raj said expect results at the end of this year) and the US P2 mBC study which I suspect will not be impressive either if we don’t hear anything impressive on the Korean mBC study. I guess what I’m saying is, I give Rolontis a lot of credibility and Poziotinib very little credibility as a driver of future SP. And Qapzola is probably another 2 yrs out before we can have a realistic discussion as a driver of SP. Hope this helps.
