Seelos Therapeutics Inc (SEEL)

[twpoker]

I feel this is a binary play as the stock will soar from its current price with approval, or plummet if not approved.

Instead of parsing the financials word by word, how about a conversation about the future value? This should be the focus of anyone (long or short) who has an interest in the stock.

It seems the listing requirement has been met, and the available cash versus burn rate should get them to an FDA decision.

Here is a beginning point, that is admittedly subjective, but I hope it begins a productive discussion:

If the market value of Vitaros in the US, once approved is $100MM, then what is an appropriate discount for the 12 month wait until approval based on the time value of money? What is an appropriate discount based on the likelihood of approval? Is the stock price currently reflecting the combined "proper" discounts?

IF you start at $100MM and discount it 20% for the cost of time/money in a micro cap stock, you get $80MM, and then discount that 50% for likeliness of approval, you get a $40MM market cap.

I am ignoring RayVa in the calculation as management has been having discussions "with several potential partners" for several months now. None of the potential partners stepped up when Apricus was in dire need of the money and willing to negotiate, so I doubt it happens in the next few months.