Tuesday, March 14, 2017 9:45:07 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/13 2017 EOD
Near-term continued upside seems most likely, with a warning that the buy percentage got too high and if we overshoot on the return to normalcy again we could see today's improvement wiped out quickly.
Today was a grind higher almost all day from about 12:30 onward.
There was a pre-market Order PR for a C1000S upgrade for an industrial customer.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 50:1.5K $0.7014/$0.7777 (bid backed by presented 100 $0.7001, 7.1K $0.70).
09:30-10:21 opened the day with an 801 sell for $0.7010 & $0.7010 x 111, x 1, x 70, x 3. B/a just after open was 2.4K:20 $0.7002/$0.7218 (bid backed by presented 100 $0.7003, 2.3K $0.7002). Then came 9:34's 140 $0.7360, 9:35's 165 $0.7170, 9:43's b/a 200:229 $0.7050/$0.74, 9:49's b/a 300:229 $0.7050/$0.74, 9:50's 1.1K $0.7389 (1K)/$0.7050, 9:51's 200 $0.7299/$0.7051, 9:53's b/a 900:2.2K $0.7200/98, 9:53's 5.8K $0.7283 (5K)/00/$0.7165, 9:54's 3.9K $0.7200/$0.7195/$0.7282/$0.7090/$0.7192/$0.7085/$0.7191, 9:55's b/a 100:300 $0.7090/$0.7298, 9:57's b/a 100:400 $0.7085/$0.7298, 10:02's b/a 100:400 $0.7085/$0.7298, 10:03's 100 $0.7085, 10:06's 9K:500 $0.71/$0.7298, 10:06's 101 $0.7298, 10:14's 100 $0.7298, 10:17's 8.9K:400 $0.71/$0.7298, and the period ended on 10:21's 272 $0.7199/$0.7297.
10:22-11:50's initial three no-trade minutes had b/a at 10:22 of 600:2.6K $0.7200/97. Trade began extremely low/no-volume (e.g., no trades 10:26-:50) $0.7200/93, with slowly falling highs, on 10:25's 100 $0.7215. B/a at 10:26 was 700:2.6K $0.7200/94, 10:32 700:2.7K $0.7200/94, 10:46 800:2.4K $0.7200/93. Volume was interrupted by 10:50's 11.3K $0.7293 (10K blk)/00/01. B/a at 11:02 was 500:2.8K $0.7200/92. The offers began moving up and down by relatively large magnitudes. Volume was interrupted by 11:06's 2.7K $0.7291 (2.4K)/00. B/a at 11:17 was 300:2.5K $0.7200/61. Volume was interrupted by 11:29's 11K $0.7211/06/1100/11/94 (8.3K)/00. B/a at 11:32 was 100:1.8K $0.7200/61 (offers jiggling up/down $0.7261/80), 11:48 100:1.3K $0.7200/05. The period ended on 11:50's 289 $0.72.
11:51-13:07, after eight no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7116/$0.7201, with slowly falling lows, on 11:59's 150 $0.7116. B/a at 12:02 was 8.9K:900 $0.71/$0.7207, 12:17 8.9K:1K $0.71/$0.7202. Volume was interrupted by 12:22's 5.5K $0.7151/00/51/$0.7202/$0.7151/$0.7201/01/$0.7151/99/$0.7201 (2.4K) and 12:27's 7.3K $0.7197 (6.9K)/00. B/a at 12:32 was 8.7K;1K $0.71//$0.7294. Volume was interrupted by 12:45's 3.7K $0.7146 (3K)/00. B/a at 12:47 was 8.8K:1.2K $0.71/$0.7294, 13:02 8.8K;1K $0.71/$0.7290. The period ended on 13:07's 2.5K $0.7276/90/89/90/94.
13:08-14:48 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7399/$0.7470, with slowly rising lows and highs, on 13:08's 800 $0.7294/5 and 13:09's 3.1K $0.7298/$0.73/$0.7400/60/70. B/a at 13:17 was 400:100 $0.72/$0.7399, 13:32 400:500 $0.7301/$0.7456. Volume was interrupted by 13:37's 5.1K $0.7456/$0.7355 (5K) and 13:45's 8K $0.7350/99/$0.7400/40/39/40. B/a at 13:47 was 2.6K:100 $0.7250/$0.74. Volume was interrupted by 14:00's 10.2K $0.7430/39/57 (7.8K)/39. B/a at 14:02 was 2.5K:1K $0.7250/$0.7399, 14:17 2.6K:100 $0.7250/$0.7399. Volume was interrupted by 14:20's 5.5K $0.7398/99/$0.74/$0.7390/$0.74. B/a at 14:28 was 16.3K:200 $0.7456, 14:32 700:200 $0.7401/56, 14:47 700:200 $0.7401/69. The period ended on 14:48's 12.1K $0.7469/68/70/68/70.
14:49-15:48, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 14:50's 100 $0.7499. B/a at 15:02 was 300:100 was $0.7401/99. 15:09's 100 hit $0.7590 and 15:12's 1.1K brought it right back down to $0.7405/96. B/a at 15:15 was 200:24 $0.7401/$0.75 (offers backed by presented 7K $0.7580 and 13.1K $0.76). 15:30 began an attempt to move back up. B/a at 15:32 was 100:24 $0.73/$0.75 (offers backed by presented 4.4K $0.7557). 15:35's 100 hit $0.7557. The gains couldn't hold and but for 15:45's 4.5K $0.7301, range went back down to continue at $0.7400/99. B/a at 15:47 was 200:8K $0.73/5. The period ended on 15:48's 249 $0.741.
15:49-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began a mostly high/medium-volume attempt to rise again - couldn't hold - on 15:53's 10.2K $0.7499 (10K blk)/00. B/a at 15:55 was 200:7.9K $0.7301/$0.74. 15:56 did 10.7K $0.74, 15:57 did 375 $0.7494/$0.75, 15:58 did 8.3K $0.7550/7 and the period and day ended on 15:59's 5.3K $0.7501/$0.7429/$0.7501/$0.7357/$0.7428/$0.7357/56 and the official close on 15:59's last 4K $0.7325 because there was no MM official 16:00 closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 78,299, 44.81% of day's volume, with a $0.7358 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems reasonable, or maybe a tad high. The percentage of day's volume is quite high even though we had only a couple "larger larger trades". With the larger trades VWAP being slightly above the day's $0.7349 VWAP I'm suspecting the PR brought out some of the longer-term bullish folks that had been awaiting some additional positive indications that some revenue recovery would accompany the cost reduction efforts.
It's also possible the shorters were doing covering buys, suggested because the buy percentage was so high all day (see below). Unfortunately, it could be the opposite - the shorters have recently been increasing their short interest. Is it possible (likely?) that today's small bump was enough to cause them to short, feeling that recent behavior suggests the bump would have no legs and they could do a quick scalp of some small profits?
We'll never know.
In the following, note the extremely high buy percentages. We know what happened last time the buy percentages got abnormally high (see 3/2-3/8 in the table at the bottom of today's post). In that instance there wasn't a PR though, so maybe this time buy percentage will hold up better, like not overshooting as it returns toward normal range.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Time for an adjusted minimal chart.
On my minimal chart, I adjusted the rising orange support to account for recent behavior. The important thing to note is that a price-point support of ~$0.70, the horizontal white line, and the rising orange support line are both offering potential support, although the adjusted orange line now needs to demonstrate that before it's again considered a valid support.
Discussing the weakness yesterday, I said { Regardless, the movements of the OLHC today were small enough that I don't yet abandon my belief that the down leg is ended. The reduced volume today again suggests no strength in the movement lower. }. There's nothing like a good ol' positive PR to help out - I appreciate it! Now it's the hopium pipe time - let's hope it holds a bit and we get some continued, for at least a brief period, upward movement.
Discussing the third consecutive day closing below the support I said { Conventional TA suggests that we should should continue lower and test the $0.66 support. However, in the three days below support the volume has not been building, as it would if strength downward was building, and the low has dropped less than a penny during that time. } It appears, with the help of the PR, that the volume was indeed saying no strength as the response to the PR, in terms of range, volume, VWAP and buy percentage, was quite positive and, unlike many prior occurrences of a positive PR, did have a positive response in the market.
The PR today also benefited my determination to hang in with a more positive (more properly, I guess, would be less negative): { It should be noted that today's weakness was produced by a intra-day trend predominantly down all day long. Given that consideration and the fact that the weakness and volume were so minimal I think I can hang with the down leg ending for another day, but improvement needs to occur Monday for me to retain that view. }
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) stopped declining and falling further below the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's 1.76 cents below the slow EMA now. With the rising support adjustment, it's no longer below that potential support.
Yesterday almost touched the experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit. We weren't yet again "pushing" it, but it was too close for comfort. I suggested it may be the "Friday effect" I thought might appear. Today had a close improved sufficiently high to cause the lower limit to flip upward by a significant degree, leaving it closer, within 2 cents, of the day's low. It would be nice if, for a change, the lower limit began pushing price rather than the other way around. I'm not counting on it though.
The upper limit continues to fall, so we have converging limits.
On my one-year chart the prior four days appeared to have the long-term descending former resistance acting as support. I had noted this allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode. With the help, apparently, of today's PR it looks like the pull up and away from the line has begun. Time for hopium again as we want to see this trend continue.
The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. I had mentioned a few days back that the 50-day should shortly begin a rise, predicated on the end of price decline. Well, yesterday we still had price decline but it's so small that the 50-day SMA is almost flat, moving lower only 11/100ths of a penny from the prior day. The decline today was only 1/100th of a penny. With any positive move tomorrow we should get our first cross above it I think.
The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued declining. The 10-day moved from below the 20-day by 1.83 cents to 1.9 cents below. As mentioned yesterday, unless the price leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely, it will take longer to get the 10-day back above the 20. Today was a good start, but we need something sustained for a while.
If we hold here we'll get 1 (was 9 decline) day of rising 10-day SMA and the four days of decline and four of rise. The 20-day would have 1 (was 19 decline) day of rise and 9 days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will rise 3 days (was 2 decline) and then begin a series of "waves" of declines and rises. Of course, we won't just "hold here". The 200-day would fall ~153 (was ~155) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (deeply oversold and at it's lower bound), full stochastic (deeply oversold and near 0), and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and MFI (untrusted by me).
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6914 and $0.7903 ($0.6909 and $0.7985 yesterday), stopped diverging as the lower limit flipped from dropping to rising while the upper limit continued falling. The mid-point continues in decline.
All in, the PR apparently brought out some bulls who had been waiting for something to hang their hat on. Everything today, but for the buy percentage being excessive, suggests continued upside is available near-term, supported by relatively decent and rising volume. I'm hoping we can at least get a "three day window" effect, although in this area our history recently has not demonstrated that propensity.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, but both are too high and I expect the buy percentage to again retreat towards normalcy. I'm hoping it won't overshoot like it did last time.
The short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check) but given the volume, buy percentages and range I don't think it's excessive. I think it does indicate some less resolute longs decided to take some profit or reduce losses and, of course, there's likely a good percentage of real shorters involved as well as they have recently been increasing their short positions. However, I do expect they will have done some covering in the low-$0.7x area, setting up for the next cycle up so they can drive price down again, sans a groundswell of bullish sentiment in long-term investors.
The spread widened substantially and suggests other than near-term consolidation now. Unusually, it was produced by low-to-high-to-morning-median (roughly) through ~12:30 behavior and then predominately a rise from then on, thanks to the PR I think, and is an indication that we should have more near-term upside, especially with the relatively high and rising volume considered.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 12 negatives and 12 positives after having held steady for two consecutive days at 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 02/06 is $0.0038, 0.52%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, and 0.2301%.
All in, I think some near-term upside is most likely for now, with a caveat about the too-high buy percentage.
Bill
Near-term continued upside seems most likely, with a warning that the buy percentage got too high and if we overshoot on the return to normalcy again we could see today's improvement wiped out quickly.
Today was a grind higher almost all day from about 12:30 onward.
There was a pre-market Order PR for a C1000S upgrade for an industrial customer.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 50:1.5K $0.7014/$0.7777 (bid backed by presented 100 $0.7001, 7.1K $0.70).
09:30-10:21 opened the day with an 801 sell for $0.7010 & $0.7010 x 111, x 1, x 70, x 3. B/a just after open was 2.4K:20 $0.7002/$0.7218 (bid backed by presented 100 $0.7003, 2.3K $0.7002). Then came 9:34's 140 $0.7360, 9:35's 165 $0.7170, 9:43's b/a 200:229 $0.7050/$0.74, 9:49's b/a 300:229 $0.7050/$0.74, 9:50's 1.1K $0.7389 (1K)/$0.7050, 9:51's 200 $0.7299/$0.7051, 9:53's b/a 900:2.2K $0.7200/98, 9:53's 5.8K $0.7283 (5K)/00/$0.7165, 9:54's 3.9K $0.7200/$0.7195/$0.7282/$0.7090/$0.7192/$0.7085/$0.7191, 9:55's b/a 100:300 $0.7090/$0.7298, 9:57's b/a 100:400 $0.7085/$0.7298, 10:02's b/a 100:400 $0.7085/$0.7298, 10:03's 100 $0.7085, 10:06's 9K:500 $0.71/$0.7298, 10:06's 101 $0.7298, 10:14's 100 $0.7298, 10:17's 8.9K:400 $0.71/$0.7298, and the period ended on 10:21's 272 $0.7199/$0.7297.
10:22-11:50's initial three no-trade minutes had b/a at 10:22 of 600:2.6K $0.7200/97. Trade began extremely low/no-volume (e.g., no trades 10:26-:50) $0.7200/93, with slowly falling highs, on 10:25's 100 $0.7215. B/a at 10:26 was 700:2.6K $0.7200/94, 10:32 700:2.7K $0.7200/94, 10:46 800:2.4K $0.7200/93. Volume was interrupted by 10:50's 11.3K $0.7293 (10K blk)/00/01. B/a at 11:02 was 500:2.8K $0.7200/92. The offers began moving up and down by relatively large magnitudes. Volume was interrupted by 11:06's 2.7K $0.7291 (2.4K)/00. B/a at 11:17 was 300:2.5K $0.7200/61. Volume was interrupted by 11:29's 11K $0.7211/06/1100/11/94 (8.3K)/00. B/a at 11:32 was 100:1.8K $0.7200/61 (offers jiggling up/down $0.7261/80), 11:48 100:1.3K $0.7200/05. The period ended on 11:50's 289 $0.72.
11:51-13:07, after eight no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7116/$0.7201, with slowly falling lows, on 11:59's 150 $0.7116. B/a at 12:02 was 8.9K:900 $0.71/$0.7207, 12:17 8.9K:1K $0.71/$0.7202. Volume was interrupted by 12:22's 5.5K $0.7151/00/51/$0.7202/$0.7151/$0.7201/01/$0.7151/99/$0.7201 (2.4K) and 12:27's 7.3K $0.7197 (6.9K)/00. B/a at 12:32 was 8.7K;1K $0.71//$0.7294. Volume was interrupted by 12:45's 3.7K $0.7146 (3K)/00. B/a at 12:47 was 8.8K:1.2K $0.71/$0.7294, 13:02 8.8K;1K $0.71/$0.7290. The period ended on 13:07's 2.5K $0.7276/90/89/90/94.
13:08-14:48 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7399/$0.7470, with slowly rising lows and highs, on 13:08's 800 $0.7294/5 and 13:09's 3.1K $0.7298/$0.73/$0.7400/60/70. B/a at 13:17 was 400:100 $0.72/$0.7399, 13:32 400:500 $0.7301/$0.7456. Volume was interrupted by 13:37's 5.1K $0.7456/$0.7355 (5K) and 13:45's 8K $0.7350/99/$0.7400/40/39/40. B/a at 13:47 was 2.6K:100 $0.7250/$0.74. Volume was interrupted by 14:00's 10.2K $0.7430/39/57 (7.8K)/39. B/a at 14:02 was 2.5K:1K $0.7250/$0.7399, 14:17 2.6K:100 $0.7250/$0.7399. Volume was interrupted by 14:20's 5.5K $0.7398/99/$0.74/$0.7390/$0.74. B/a at 14:28 was 16.3K:200 $0.7456, 14:32 700:200 $0.7401/56, 14:47 700:200 $0.7401/69. The period ended on 14:48's 12.1K $0.7469/68/70/68/70.
14:49-15:48, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 14:50's 100 $0.7499. B/a at 15:02 was 300:100 was $0.7401/99. 15:09's 100 hit $0.7590 and 15:12's 1.1K brought it right back down to $0.7405/96. B/a at 15:15 was 200:24 $0.7401/$0.75 (offers backed by presented 7K $0.7580 and 13.1K $0.76). 15:30 began an attempt to move back up. B/a at 15:32 was 100:24 $0.73/$0.75 (offers backed by presented 4.4K $0.7557). 15:35's 100 hit $0.7557. The gains couldn't hold and but for 15:45's 4.5K $0.7301, range went back down to continue at $0.7400/99. B/a at 15:47 was 200:8K $0.73/5. The period ended on 15:48's 249 $0.741.
15:49-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began a mostly high/medium-volume attempt to rise again - couldn't hold - on 15:53's 10.2K $0.7499 (10K blk)/00. B/a at 15:55 was 200:7.9K $0.7301/$0.74. 15:56 did 10.7K $0.74, 15:57 did 375 $0.7494/$0.75, 15:58 did 8.3K $0.7550/7 and the period and day ended on 15:59's 5.3K $0.7501/$0.7429/$0.7501/$0.7357/$0.7428/$0.7357/56 and the official close on 15:59's last 4K $0.7325 because there was no MM official 16:00 closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 78,299, 44.81% of day's volume, with a $0.7358 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems reasonable, or maybe a tad high. The percentage of day's volume is quite high even though we had only a couple "larger larger trades". With the larger trades VWAP being slightly above the day's $0.7349 VWAP I'm suspecting the PR brought out some of the longer-term bullish folks that had been awaiting some additional positive indications that some revenue recovery would accompany the cost reduction efforts.
It's also possible the shorters were doing covering buys, suggested because the buy percentage was so high all day (see below). Unfortunately, it could be the opposite - the shorters have recently been increasing their short interest. Is it possible (likely?) that today's small bump was enough to cause them to short, feeling that recent behavior suggests the bump would have no legs and they could do a quick scalp of some small profits?
We'll never know.
In the following, note the extremely high buy percentages. We know what happened last time the buy percentages got abnormally high (see 3/2-3/8 in the table at the bottom of today's post). In that instance there wasn't a PR though, so maybe this time buy percentage will hold up better, like not overshooting as it returns toward normal range.
It may be a good sign that the VWAP trended higher later in the day and comprised ~54% of day's volume as it did so. The buy percentage also held up well. Maybe this finally starts the leg up I've been expecting.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:21 12717 $0.7010 $0.7389 $9,218.53 $0.7249 7.28% 70.15% Incl 09:53 $0.7283 5,000
11:50 27715 $0.7200 $0.7294 $20,158.62 $0.7274 15.86% 78.64% Incl 10:50 $0.7293 10,000 11:29 $0.7294 8,300
13:07 36785 $0.7100 $0.7294 $26,582.58 $0.7226 21.05% 69.82% Incl 12:27 $0.7197 6,850 12:55 $0.7294 6,500
12:55 $0.7294 4,500
14:48 51399 $0.7250 $0.7470 $38,153.27 $0.7423 29.42% 73.41% Incl 13:37 $0.7355 5,000 14:00 $0.7457 5,600
14:48 5,200 $0.7470 $0.7468
15:48 8726 $0.7301 $0.7590 $6,432.09 $0.7371 4.99% 70.85%
16:00 34815 $0.7300 $0.7557 $25,965.80 $0.7458 19.93% 72.92% Incl 15:53 $0.7499 10,000 15:56 $0.7400 6,149
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Note that even though the open again began down a noticeable amount, the rest of the metrics today showed marked improvemnt, especially in the high and close. Further, the volume was up and got above the 10-day average of ~150K.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.41% 0.14% 2.58% 4.63% 73.15%
Prior -1.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 66.37%
Time for an adjusted minimal chart.
On my minimal chart, I adjusted the rising orange support to account for recent behavior. The important thing to note is that a price-point support of ~$0.70, the horizontal white line, and the rising orange support line are both offering potential support, although the adjusted orange line now needs to demonstrate that before it's again considered a valid support.
Discussing the weakness yesterday, I said { Regardless, the movements of the OLHC today were small enough that I don't yet abandon my belief that the down leg is ended. The reduced volume today again suggests no strength in the movement lower. }. There's nothing like a good ol' positive PR to help out - I appreciate it! Now it's the hopium pipe time - let's hope it holds a bit and we get some continued, for at least a brief period, upward movement.
Discussing the third consecutive day closing below the support I said { Conventional TA suggests that we should should continue lower and test the $0.66 support. However, in the three days below support the volume has not been building, as it would if strength downward was building, and the low has dropped less than a penny during that time. } It appears, with the help of the PR, that the volume was indeed saying no strength as the response to the PR, in terms of range, volume, VWAP and buy percentage, was quite positive and, unlike many prior occurrences of a positive PR, did have a positive response in the market.
The PR today also benefited my determination to hang in with a more positive (more properly, I guess, would be less negative): { It should be noted that today's weakness was produced by a intra-day trend predominantly down all day long. Given that consideration and the fact that the weakness and volume were so minimal I think I can hang with the down leg ending for another day, but improvement needs to occur Monday for me to retain that view. }
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) stopped declining and falling further below the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's 1.76 cents below the slow EMA now. With the rising support adjustment, it's no longer below that potential support.
Yesterday almost touched the experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit. We weren't yet again "pushing" it, but it was too close for comfort. I suggested it may be the "Friday effect" I thought might appear. Today had a close improved sufficiently high to cause the lower limit to flip upward by a significant degree, leaving it closer, within 2 cents, of the day's low. It would be nice if, for a change, the lower limit began pushing price rather than the other way around. I'm not counting on it though.
The upper limit continues to fall, so we have converging limits.
On my one-year chart the prior four days appeared to have the long-term descending former resistance acting as support. I had noted this allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode. With the help, apparently, of today's PR it looks like the pull up and away from the line has begun. Time for hopium again as we want to see this trend continue.
The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. I had mentioned a few days back that the 50-day should shortly begin a rise, predicated on the end of price decline. Well, yesterday we still had price decline but it's so small that the 50-day SMA is almost flat, moving lower only 11/100ths of a penny from the prior day. The decline today was only 1/100th of a penny. With any positive move tomorrow we should get our first cross above it I think.
The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued declining. The 10-day moved from below the 20-day by 1.83 cents to 1.9 cents below. As mentioned yesterday, unless the price leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely, it will take longer to get the 10-day back above the 20. Today was a good start, but we need something sustained for a while.
If we hold here we'll get 1 (was 9 decline) day of rising 10-day SMA and the four days of decline and four of rise. The 20-day would have 1 (was 19 decline) day of rise and 9 days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will rise 3 days (was 2 decline) and then begin a series of "waves" of declines and rises. Of course, we won't just "hold here". The 200-day would fall ~153 (was ~155) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (deeply oversold and at it's lower bound), full stochastic (deeply oversold and near 0), and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and MFI (untrusted by me).
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6914 and $0.7903 ($0.6909 and $0.7985 yesterday), stopped diverging as the lower limit flipped from dropping to rising while the upper limit continued falling. The mid-point continues in decline.
All in, the PR apparently brought out some bulls who had been waiting for something to hang their hat on. Everything today, but for the buy percentage being excessive, suggests continued upside is available near-term, supported by relatively decent and rising volume. I'm hoping we can at least get a "three day window" effect, although in this area our history recently has not demonstrated that propensity.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, but both are too high and I expect the buy percentage to again retreat towards normalcy. I'm hoping it won't overshoot like it did last time.
The short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check) but given the volume, buy percentages and range I don't think it's excessive. I think it does indicate some less resolute longs decided to take some profit or reduce losses and, of course, there's likely a good percentage of real shorters involved as well as they have recently been increasing their short positions. However, I do expect they will have done some covering in the low-$0.7x area, setting up for the next cycle up so they can drive price down again, sans a groundswell of bullish sentiment in long-term investors.
The spread widened substantially and suggests other than near-term consolidation now. Unusually, it was produced by low-to-high-to-morning-median (roughly) through ~12:30 behavior and then predominately a rise from then on, thanks to the PR I think, and is an indication that we should have more near-term upside, especially with the relatively high and rising volume considered.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 12 negatives and 12 positives after having held steady for two consecutive days at 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 02/06 is $0.0038, 0.52%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, and 0.2301%.
All in, I think some near-term upside is most likely for now, with a caveat about the too-high buy percentage.
Bill
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