Thursday, March 09, 2017 9:38:45 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/08 2017 EOD
Conventional TA says near-term weakness is most likely except that the extremely low volume suggests no strength left for a continued move lower.
My unconventional stuff is a bit less negative as the short and buy percentages are beginning to behave better and the spread has narrowed nicely and is approaching consolidation levels. I read that as near-term the down leg is likely over.
Today was one of our classic open high and drop during the early part of the session and then go predominantly flattish for the rest of the day. All was the typical extremely low/no-volume with a few one-to-three-minute spikes here and there, when price movement usually occurred.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:56 opened the day with a 283 sell for $0.72 & $0.7370 x 101. B/a just after open was 1.8K:500 $0.72/5. Then came 9:34's b/a 1.8K:100 $0.72/$0.7497, 9:35's 3.4K $0.74, 9:37's 4.2K $0.72, 9:43's b/a 10.3K:1.5K $0.7100/99, 9:45's 361 $0.7116, 9:49's b/a 13.3K:2.3K $0.7100/99, 9:53's 11.5K (incl 10K blk) $0.71, 9:54's 11.5K $0.71, and the period ended with 9:56's 600 $0.7182/00.
09:57-11:42, during the first five no-trades minutes b/a at 9:58 was 7K:3K $0.7100/73. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7110/68, with rising highs through 10:27, on 10:02's 100 $0.7168. B/a at 10:06 was 1.6K:2.1K $0.7110/68, 10:17 1.5K:800 $0.7110/67. 10:27's 100 hit $0.7199 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.7112/$0.72. B/a at 10:28 was 1.2K:1.7K $0.7110/99, 10:32 1.2K:1.6K $0.7110/99, 10:47 1.3K:2.4K $0.7110/99, 11:01 100:1.8K $0.7111/98 (bids backed by presented 1.1K $0.7110, 24K $0.71). 11:13's 100 hit $0.72. B/a at 11:16 was 327:468 $0.7112/$0.7298, 11:31 527:568 $0.7112/$0.7298. The period ended on 11:42's 600 $0.7174.
11:43-13:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7115/22 on 11:43's 100 $0.7115. B/a at 11:46 was 10.2K:768 $0.7115/$0.7298, 12:01 10.5K:768 $0.7115/$0.7298, 12:18 600:2.6K $0.7122/99, 12:31 100:1.3K $0.7122/98, 12:47 100:1.3K $0.7122/97. Volume was interrupted by 12:52's 2.6K $0.7123 (2.5K)/83 and the period ended on 13:00's 5.1K $0.7190 (5K)/22.
13:01-13:41, during the first eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:02 of 100:1.6K $0.7122/85 (jiggling 5/6). Trade began on 13:12's 192 $0.7122. B/a at 13:17 was 100:1.5K $0.7130/70 (offers falling), 13:33 1K:1.8K $0.7110/52. The period ended on 13:41's 110 $0.715.
13:42-15:40 during the first six no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:47 of 1K:1.7K $0.7110/36 (offers falling). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7125/6 on 13:50's 10.3K $0.7123/57/10. B/a at 14:02 4.6K:1K $0.7126/7, 14:17 4.6K:1K $0.7126/7, 14:32 4.6K:1.2K $0.7126/7 (bids backed by presented 3K $0.71), 14:47 4.6K:1K $0.7126/7, 15:02 4.3K:1.1K $0.7126/7 (bids backed by presented 3K $0.71). The period ended on 15:40's 100 $0.7127.
15:41-16:00, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $ extremely low/no-volume $0.7126/90 on 15:46's 2.3K $0.7136/46/47/37/48/37/48/46. B/a at 15:48 was 3.5K:47 $0.7126/57 (offers backed by presented 3.4K $0.7188), 15:56 3.6K:47 (bids backed by presented 1.1K $0.7172). The period and day ended on 15:59's 2K buy for $0.7126, the official close because the only 16:00 trade was a 50-share odd-lot for $0.71, which is not allowed to be the official anything.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 24,291, 34.67% of day's volume, with a $0.7119 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the day's trade volume, but the percentage of day's volume is a bit high. With volume as low as it is I think nothing of value resides in these metrics.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { the rising medium-term support (rising orange line) held as we penetrated below intra-day but came back and closed right on the line. Recall this is the line about which in the recent past I had said demonstrated fairly strong support on multiple challenges and I thought it would keep us from going on to challenge $0.66. It will be important to see it hold again tomorrow. Better would be a price move up and away from it on good, and rising, volume. }
Well, today we penetrated and closed below the rising support, but on extremely low volume that suggests no strength yet in the down move. It could be suggesting indecision though, leaving us open to a close below again tomorrow confirming a break down and likely a leg leading to challenge the $0.66 low. Best I can tell, we need a close >= ~$0.7225 to avoid confirming a break down.
We also need to reverse today's volume trend and see a close above the line with rising volume, which would give a suggestion of strength beginning in a move higher.
One bit of positive news is that the low held flat today even as the high made a substantial retreat ($0.77 to $0.74).
In aggregate, today's action meets my expected test of the rising support that would hopefully end the down leg and lead to a reversal within consolidation.
Tomorrow should tell the story. A positive PR would help immensely but I really don't expect anything.
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continued declining and is further below the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's also below the rising support. This is a big negative and needs to start reversing.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band continues "pushing" the lower limit today. Yesterday's discussion of this included { ... Since they are generally price agnostic, just doing arbitrage, it's about time for them to be considering moving range back up, especially as today's high volume will likely be followed by lower volume tomorrow, making it easier (and cheaper as few shares will be needed to do the job). } We got the "lower volume tomorrow" part and now just need to see the "moving range back up" part.
On my one-year chart, as with the prior two days, it looks like the long-term descending former resistance acted as support. This allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode.
The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 10 and 20-day SMAs continued declining. The 10-day which was below the 20-day by 1/100ths of a cent is now 71/100ths below. As before, if strength appears we should quickly get the 10-day back above the 20-day SMA. If we hold here we'll get 9 (was 9) days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 2 (was 19) days of rise followed by 18 declining days. If we hold here the 50 will decline 4 days (was 4) and then rise 1 day and decline again 10 (was) 9 days. The 200-day would fall ~155 (was ~155) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in every oscillator. every one is below neutral. Only Williams %R is in oversold territory.
Today improvement in MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum, while all other continued weakening. Williams %R entered oversold and full stochastic is barely above that condition. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7058 and $0.8074 ($0.7163 and $0.8081 yesterday), are almost parallel in their decline, giving a falling mid-point. As mentioned, our range is "pushing" the lower limit for the second day. I wouldn't be surprised if that ceased tomorrow.
All in, all negative here except for the volume which gives a strong suggestion that the down-leg is very near ending or just reflecting indecision that could eventually lead to a continuation of the down leg, exiting the very short-term consolidation. My belief, due to how I think MMs act, is that the down-leg will end. But I'm not betting on it.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage is still below even a neutral range even though it improved. The short percentage may be a result of the very low volume as the MMs naked short into the market as they service both their own and their customers'(?) interests. If volume and range pick up a bit tomorrow we'll likely see improvement in both metrics.
The spread narrowed nicely and is very near what I would expect in consolidation now. It was produced by the common open high and fall but that was all very early-day action. The rest of the day was very flattish and suggests this spread may be telling us we've bottomed, or are very near doing so.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 14 negative and 10 positives. Change since 02/01 is -$0.1129, -13.64%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, and 0.3941%.
All in, continued improvement in buy percentage coupled with a short percentage that's only a small amount above my desired range and a spread that has narrowed nicely, leads me to think the leg down is likely endeing.
Bill
Conventional TA says near-term weakness is most likely except that the extremely low volume suggests no strength left for a continued move lower.
My unconventional stuff is a bit less negative as the short and buy percentages are beginning to behave better and the spread has narrowed nicely and is approaching consolidation levels. I read that as near-term the down leg is likely over.
Today was one of our classic open high and drop during the early part of the session and then go predominantly flattish for the rest of the day. All was the typical extremely low/no-volume with a few one-to-three-minute spikes here and there, when price movement usually occurred.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:56 opened the day with a 283 sell for $0.72 & $0.7370 x 101. B/a just after open was 1.8K:500 $0.72/5. Then came 9:34's b/a 1.8K:100 $0.72/$0.7497, 9:35's 3.4K $0.74, 9:37's 4.2K $0.72, 9:43's b/a 10.3K:1.5K $0.7100/99, 9:45's 361 $0.7116, 9:49's b/a 13.3K:2.3K $0.7100/99, 9:53's 11.5K (incl 10K blk) $0.71, 9:54's 11.5K $0.71, and the period ended with 9:56's 600 $0.7182/00.
09:57-11:42, during the first five no-trades minutes b/a at 9:58 was 7K:3K $0.7100/73. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7110/68, with rising highs through 10:27, on 10:02's 100 $0.7168. B/a at 10:06 was 1.6K:2.1K $0.7110/68, 10:17 1.5K:800 $0.7110/67. 10:27's 100 hit $0.7199 and began extremely low/no-volume $0.7112/$0.72. B/a at 10:28 was 1.2K:1.7K $0.7110/99, 10:32 1.2K:1.6K $0.7110/99, 10:47 1.3K:2.4K $0.7110/99, 11:01 100:1.8K $0.7111/98 (bids backed by presented 1.1K $0.7110, 24K $0.71). 11:13's 100 hit $0.72. B/a at 11:16 was 327:468 $0.7112/$0.7298, 11:31 527:568 $0.7112/$0.7298. The period ended on 11:42's 600 $0.7174.
11:43-13:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7115/22 on 11:43's 100 $0.7115. B/a at 11:46 was 10.2K:768 $0.7115/$0.7298, 12:01 10.5K:768 $0.7115/$0.7298, 12:18 600:2.6K $0.7122/99, 12:31 100:1.3K $0.7122/98, 12:47 100:1.3K $0.7122/97. Volume was interrupted by 12:52's 2.6K $0.7123 (2.5K)/83 and the period ended on 13:00's 5.1K $0.7190 (5K)/22.
13:01-13:41, during the first eleven no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:02 of 100:1.6K $0.7122/85 (jiggling 5/6). Trade began on 13:12's 192 $0.7122. B/a at 13:17 was 100:1.5K $0.7130/70 (offers falling), 13:33 1K:1.8K $0.7110/52. The period ended on 13:41's 110 $0.715.
13:42-15:40 during the first six no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:47 of 1K:1.7K $0.7110/36 (offers falling). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7125/6 on 13:50's 10.3K $0.7123/57/10. B/a at 14:02 4.6K:1K $0.7126/7, 14:17 4.6K:1K $0.7126/7, 14:32 4.6K:1.2K $0.7126/7 (bids backed by presented 3K $0.71), 14:47 4.6K:1K $0.7126/7, 15:02 4.3K:1.1K $0.7126/7 (bids backed by presented 3K $0.71). The period ended on 15:40's 100 $0.7127.
15:41-16:00, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $ extremely low/no-volume $0.7126/90 on 15:46's 2.3K $0.7136/46/47/37/48/37/48/46. B/a at 15:48 was 3.5K:47 $0.7126/57 (offers backed by presented 3.4K $0.7188), 15:56 3.6K:47 (bids backed by presented 1.1K $0.7172). The period and day ended on 15:59's 2K buy for $0.7126, the official close because the only 16:00 trade was a 50-share odd-lot for $0.71, which is not allowed to be the official anything.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 24,291, 34.67% of day's volume, with a $0.7119 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the day's trade volume, but the percentage of day's volume is a bit high. With volume as low as it is I think nothing of value resides in these metrics.
The only significant thing today, especially considering the extremely low volume, is that buy percentage continues to climb toward a more normal range. It's still too low to suggest any price improvement, but the continued improvement does offer the possibility as the folks trading in this market, likely only MMs and shorters doing covering buys I would guess, likely see little gain from continued shorting at these price levels and the MMs will want to get some volume going by giving the market an appearance of a bullish up-leg beginning. This suggests they'll be trying to get a higher open and an early-day rise for them to sell into before covering as price retreats. They should also try to avoid letting the price retreat too much as it negates the bullish appearance engendered by the early-day manipulation.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:56 31871 $0.7100 $0.7400 $22,782.55 $0.7148 45.48% 10.18% incl 09:53 $0.7100 10,000 09:54 5,000 4,291
11:42 3600 $0.7110 $0.7200 $2,572.72 $0.7146 5.14% 12.79%
13:00 9300 $0.7115 $0.7190 $6,658.11 $0.7159 13.27% 23.06% Incl 13:00 $0.7190 5,000
13:41 2590 $0.7116 $0.7150 $1,845.69 $0.7126 3.70% 22.02%
15:40 17101 $0.7110 $0.7157 $12,206.08 $0.7138 24.40% 35.52%
16:00 4850 $0.7100 $0.7190 $3,461.10 $0.7136 6.92% 35.97%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Due to the extremely low volume I suspect this may be the bottom of the down-leg. If buy percentage continues to improve we could see a small up-tick as soon as tomorrow.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.00% 0.00% -3.90% -0.99% -74.75%
Prior -1.32% -2.74% 0.00% -5.26% 215.09%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { the rising medium-term support (rising orange line) held as we penetrated below intra-day but came back and closed right on the line. Recall this is the line about which in the recent past I had said demonstrated fairly strong support on multiple challenges and I thought it would keep us from going on to challenge $0.66. It will be important to see it hold again tomorrow. Better would be a price move up and away from it on good, and rising, volume. }
Well, today we penetrated and closed below the rising support, but on extremely low volume that suggests no strength yet in the down move. It could be suggesting indecision though, leaving us open to a close below again tomorrow confirming a break down and likely a leg leading to challenge the $0.66 low. Best I can tell, we need a close >= ~$0.7225 to avoid confirming a break down.
We also need to reverse today's volume trend and see a close above the line with rising volume, which would give a suggestion of strength beginning in a move higher.
One bit of positive news is that the low held flat today even as the high made a substantial retreat ($0.77 to $0.74).
In aggregate, today's action meets my expected test of the rising support that would hopefully end the down leg and lead to a reversal within consolidation.
Tomorrow should tell the story. A positive PR would help immensely but I really don't expect anything.
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continued declining and is further below the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's also below the rising support. This is a big negative and needs to start reversing.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band continues "pushing" the lower limit today. Yesterday's discussion of this included { ... Since they are generally price agnostic, just doing arbitrage, it's about time for them to be considering moving range back up, especially as today's high volume will likely be followed by lower volume tomorrow, making it easier (and cheaper as few shares will be needed to do the job). } We got the "lower volume tomorrow" part and now just need to see the "moving range back up" part.
On my one-year chart, as with the prior two days, it looks like the long-term descending former resistance acted as support. This allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode.
The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 10 and 20-day SMAs continued declining. The 10-day which was below the 20-day by 1/100ths of a cent is now 71/100ths below. As before, if strength appears we should quickly get the 10-day back above the 20-day SMA. If we hold here we'll get 9 (was 9) days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 2 (was 19) days of rise followed by 18 declining days. If we hold here the 50 will decline 4 days (was 4) and then rise 1 day and decline again 10 (was) 9 days. The 200-day would fall ~155 (was ~155) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in every oscillator. every one is below neutral. Only Williams %R is in oversold territory.
Today improvement in MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum, while all other continued weakening. Williams %R entered oversold and full stochastic is barely above that condition. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7058 and $0.8074 ($0.7163 and $0.8081 yesterday), are almost parallel in their decline, giving a falling mid-point. As mentioned, our range is "pushing" the lower limit for the second day. I wouldn't be surprised if that ceased tomorrow.
All in, all negative here except for the volume which gives a strong suggestion that the down-leg is very near ending or just reflecting indecision that could eventually lead to a continuation of the down leg, exiting the very short-term consolidation. My belief, due to how I think MMs act, is that the down-leg will end. But I'm not betting on it.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage is still below even a neutral range even though it improved. The short percentage may be a result of the very low volume as the MMs naked short into the market as they service both their own and their customers'(?) interests. If volume and range pick up a bit tomorrow we'll likely see improvement in both metrics.
The spread narrowed nicely and is very near what I would expect in consolidation now. It was produced by the common open high and fall but that was all very early-day action. The rest of the day was very flattish and suggests this spread may be telling us we've bottomed, or are very near doing so.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 14 negative and 10 positives. Change since 02/01 is -$0.1129, -13.64%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, and 0.3941%.
All in, continued improvement in buy percentage coupled with a short percentage that's only a small amount above my desired range and a spread that has narrowed nicely, leads me to think the leg down is likely endeing.
Bill
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