Trevena Inc (TRVN)

[lattices]

OK, so now I'm just being repetitive, but I'm thinking about this whole situation. Yesterday the company also made a Wall St. presentation. The recording is now also on their website. I listened to it early this morning

....I just feel stupid -- what was the market seeing yesterday that I can't? What did the company say and report that knocked the ex-cash value by 20% (and possibly more if we keep falling?)

The marketing skills person in me thought the company is doing the right set of steps to prepare for market launch, in that they are collecting the data they need to convince payers and prescribers and pricing. They sounded like a company that knows they are launching a national product in 14 months. Given the high odds of FDA approval, the company can begin the market development process now, or as soon as they can.

The worst case is the company sells it themselves; but if they license or sell the business, shares go up a lot.

They own a drug that can make money for pharmas around the world -- they won't get any licensees?

Yet the market was stunned yesterday by something the company said or reported...and I feel blind that I'm unable to see it.

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I remain with the view that shareholders don't like the small market share future of the company's drug are in a sustained selling of their shares. It took the company awhile to attract these investors -- cumulatively years. It's a messy process of attracting enough people like me who are very happy with a 100% -- or even 50% or 30% gain over the next year, to take all these sellers' shares.

I have to try to put together what is already a high-risk portfolio with some balance. This is actually one of low-risk pieces of it. The company has a likely solid-core product; lots of things that can spike shares such as licensing/sale of the business and global, as well as the company's product becoming more known as the company promotes it for entering the market and as new shareholders emerge as we get closer to FDA filing and odds-of-approval.

But...I'm missing a piece here...I wish I could understand what the market sees/saw yesterday that I can't.