Choppy start and a mid-month surge shape March over last 21 years By Almanac Trader
* February 24, 2017
March has exhibited a tendency to begin with gains on its first trading and third trading day and then slip into a choppy up/down pattern until the eleventh trading day (mid-month). At which point, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have typically rallied until the nineteenth trading day of March. From here to the end of the month, all but Russell 2000 headed lower. On average all five indices finish March with a gain. NASDAQ’s laggard performance is mainly due to sizable losses in 1997 (–6.7%) and 2001 (–14.5%). March’s mid-month surge is likely partly due to inflows to retirement accounts (those on a 1st and 15th pay cycle) and possibly in anticipation to the beginning of another bullish earnings reporting season in April.
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