AI
Friday, February 24, 2017 10:15:15 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/23 2017 EOD
The conventional TA, but for the volume, is biased towards bullishness, but we know why I believe that is the case (TFH - manipulation for the MMs to make $). My unconventional stuff is mixed and I think that suggests consolidation with the resumption of a down-leg developing in a day or two.
I'm leaning, of course, towards the latter.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1K:1.3K $0.75/$0.80.
09:30-09:43 opened the day with a 234 sell for $0.7850 & $0.7850 x 5, x 3, x 100, x 200. B/a just after open went to 500:2.4K $0.78/$0.80. Then came 9:33's b/a 500:200 $0.78/$0.7950, 9:34's 200 $0.7950/49, 9:36's 500 $0.78, 9:37's b/a 4K:1.1K $0.76/$0.7940, 9:40's 1.2K $0.777/$0.76, and the period ended on 9:43's10.9K $0.7600/36/30/00/30/00/10.
9:44-10:09 began a mostly very low/no-volume climb back up on 9:46's 3.1K $0.7524/37/24/37/10/30/20/30. 9:49's 300 hit $0.7558/86. B/a at 9:50 was 400:600 $0.7531/$0.76. 9:55's volume interruption hit 4.5K $0.76/$0.7536/40/36/40 ... B/a at 10:00 was 100:500 $0.7531/$0.7680. 10:05's 500 hit $0.7680/$0.7702. The volume and rise were interrupted by 10:07's 8.3K $0.7701/00/$0.7550. The period ended when 10:09's 100 hit $0.7770.
10:10-11:09 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7550/$0.7750, with rising lows and falling highs, on 10:13's 300 $0.7550. B/a at 10:15 was 200:700 $0.7550/$0.7770. Volume was interrupted by 10:23-:24's $0.7550/70/60/70/89/70/88, $0.7588. That began a narrowing leading to an very small spread of $0.7550/90 by 10:53. B/a at 10:29 was 300:600 $0.7550/$0.7627. Volume was interrupted by 10:34's 2K $0.76. B/a at 10:46 was 106:500 $0.7590/$0.76, 10:54 100:94 $0.7550/90 (offers backed by presented 1K $0.7601), 11:02 100:94 $0.7550/90 (offers backed by presented 1K $0.7601, but jiggling 01/02 now). The period ended on 11:09's 16.2K $0.7599 (12K blk)/60/55/78.
11:10-12:36 began a very slow extremely low/no-volume decline from 11:10's 133 $0.7573, finally bottoming at 11:53 to begin extremely low/no-volume $0.7510/20. B/a at 11:17 was 400:1.1K $0.7530/9. Volume was interrupted by 11:18's 5.5K $0.7534/38/34/38/35/39/35/30/35/$0.7602/$0.7570/$0.7600/02. B/a at 11:24 was 500:1K $0.7550/74 (offers falling quickly), 11:33 500:800 $0.7515/54 (offers falling), 11:47 500:300 $0.7515/16, 12:02 9.3K:600 $0.7510/1. Volume was interrupted by 12:13's 9.8K $0.7510/1. The period ended on 12:36's 1.2K $0.7518/20.
12:37-13:35 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7559/60 on 12:38's 100 $0.789. B/a at 12:47 was 8.7K:100 $0.7510/19, 12:32 200:500 $0.7518/9, 13:02 200:200 $0.7550/3. Volume and price were interrupted by 13:11's 10.3K (incl 10K blk) $0.7550. B/a at 13:20 was 10:500 $0.7518/40 (bids backed by presented 8.5K $0.7511, offers jiggling 39/400), 13:33 10:100 $0.7518/53 (bids backed by presented 200 $0.7511). The period ended on 13:35's 153 $0.7553.
13:36-13:55, after twelve no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7518/$0.7530 on 13:48's 100 $0.7518. B/a at 13:48 was 7:400 $0.7510/60 (bids backed by presented 8.6K $0.7510). The period ended on 13:55's 7.3K $0.7515/12/10/30.
13:56-14:47, during ten no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:02 of 400:400 $0.7551/60. Trade began $0.7601/$0.7798, and did a low-volume rise and fall, from 14:06's 3.4K $0.7558/60/59/80/59/60/59/80/60/59/80/60/$0.7602. 14:13's 100 hit $0.7798 before starting down at 14:22. B/a at 14:17 was 100:200 $0.7701/98. 14:22's 200 $0.775 started the fall. B/a at 14:32 was 100:1K $0.7650/$0.7689. The period ended on 14:47's 700 $0.7551.
14:48-16:00 began an extremely low/no-volume, through 15:41, rise from 14:49's 400 $0.7750/1. B/a at 14:47 was 600:1.6K $0.7550/89 (offers jiggling 89/90). 14:56's 1.8K hit $0.7589. B/a at 15:01 was 1K:600 $0.7550/79 (offer jiggling 79/80). 15:16's 1.6K hit $0.7578/$0.766. B/a at 15:17 was 100:1.1K $0.7600/59, 15:23 100:1K $0.7657/8. 15:28's 600 hit $0.775. B/a at 15:32 was 100:1K $0.7730/59. 15:43's 8.7K hit $0.77/$0.7823. B/a at 15:47 was 2.2K:600 $0.7700/50. 15:56's 100 hit $0.78. The period ended on 15:57's 100 $0.7890 because there were no trades 15:58-16:00.
There were no AH trades.
In/Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 39,880, 27.77% of day's volume, with a $0.7595 VWAP. For today's volume, both the count and percentage of day's volume seems normal for consolidation behavior.
Regardless of my suspicions, the net effect will appear on the charts as suggesting some bullishness, but for the volume. Any astute chart readers will recognize the lack of strength suggested by the volume and tread carefully if they do decide to enter.
A more likely effect will be the the volume/price alert services, if the MMs are successful, will issue their alerts at some point and draw in the momo/day/swing traders. That may give a nice short-term boost. AFAIK that hasn't happened yet during this period.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { we have confirmed a break back below the long-term descending resistance (red line) by closing below it today. This is not good. Fortunately, volume declined substantially, suggesting declining strength in the move lower, and there's a good chance we will get above this line again via a short sideways, with a a mild(?) negative bias, move. }
Today we closed above it, even though about 80% of our range (and volume? Don't know) was below it. It was a mostly sideways move, but didn't end with the negative bias thanks to the close. Oh! The VWAP was up about a half percent, so maybe it's not as dire as I'm thinking. But I fall back on volume, and the ease of manipulation it engenders, to bolster my thinking.
I hope it's not just confirmation bias at work.
The fast EMA is still above the slow EMA and made a second day of teeny rise. The gap between the two remains small and a cross below still seems likely near-term. it would take only a one or two-day hiccup to cause it.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 10 and 20-day SMAs continued the slow rise begun five days back and the 10-day has crossed above the 20-day. If we hold here we'll get 4 days (was 5) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 2 (was 3) days of rise and a return to descending for 3 (was 3) days and then would begin rising for 9 (again) days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 6 (was 7) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days, still.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI (slightly above neutral), accumulation/distribution, MFI (just below overbought and untrusted by me), and Williams %R (slightly above neutral). Weakening occurred in full stochastic (slightly above neutral) and ADX-related.
Today had improvement in RSI (just above neutral), accumulation/distribution, MFI (in overbought and untrusted by me), and Williams %R (just above neutral). Weakening occurred in momentum (just above neutral), full stochastic (below neutral now), and ADX-related (but very near flat).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6965 and $0.8215 ($0.6967 and $0.8168 yesterday), resumed converging with a falling mid-point.
All in, only the intra-day breakdown, declining and very low volume and my assessment of the trading behavior (heavily TFH-influenced) are negative. All the other conventional TA stuff continues to suggest bullishness. I'll iterate though that I think it's almost purely due to MMs struggling to make money and pushing the market in a direction it really doesn't (yet!) want to go.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, but the short percentage is now above my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is in a range that suggests, but not strongly, some near-term upside is likely.
The spread continued to contract and is now just a bit higher than what I would think suggests consolidation is most likely, With the trading range moving slightly up today, we are not yet solidly in the down-leg I've been forecasting. With the volume factored in though it may appear today.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 12 negative and 12 positive after two days steady at 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 01/19 is $0.0577, 8.21%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%.
All in, I think this stuff conflicts in that the short percentage suggests we should see near-term weakening, the buy percentages suggests improvement is possible and the spread suggests consolidation. Adding in volume behavior, I'll go for consolidation and with a mild negative bias as the start of the down-leg should resume in a day or two.
Bill
The conventional TA, but for the volume, is biased towards bullishness, but we know why I believe that is the case (TFH - manipulation for the MMs to make $). My unconventional stuff is mixed and I think that suggests consolidation with the resumption of a down-leg developing in a day or two.
I'm leaning, of course, towards the latter.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1K:1.3K $0.75/$0.80.
09:30-09:43 opened the day with a 234 sell for $0.7850 & $0.7850 x 5, x 3, x 100, x 200. B/a just after open went to 500:2.4K $0.78/$0.80. Then came 9:33's b/a 500:200 $0.78/$0.7950, 9:34's 200 $0.7950/49, 9:36's 500 $0.78, 9:37's b/a 4K:1.1K $0.76/$0.7940, 9:40's 1.2K $0.777/$0.76, and the period ended on 9:43's10.9K $0.7600/36/30/00/30/00/10.
9:44-10:09 began a mostly very low/no-volume climb back up on 9:46's 3.1K $0.7524/37/24/37/10/30/20/30. 9:49's 300 hit $0.7558/86. B/a at 9:50 was 400:600 $0.7531/$0.76. 9:55's volume interruption hit 4.5K $0.76/$0.7536/40/36/40 ... B/a at 10:00 was 100:500 $0.7531/$0.7680. 10:05's 500 hit $0.7680/$0.7702. The volume and rise were interrupted by 10:07's 8.3K $0.7701/00/$0.7550. The period ended when 10:09's 100 hit $0.7770.
10:10-11:09 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7550/$0.7750, with rising lows and falling highs, on 10:13's 300 $0.7550. B/a at 10:15 was 200:700 $0.7550/$0.7770. Volume was interrupted by 10:23-:24's $0.7550/70/60/70/89/70/88, $0.7588. That began a narrowing leading to an very small spread of $0.7550/90 by 10:53. B/a at 10:29 was 300:600 $0.7550/$0.7627. Volume was interrupted by 10:34's 2K $0.76. B/a at 10:46 was 106:500 $0.7590/$0.76, 10:54 100:94 $0.7550/90 (offers backed by presented 1K $0.7601), 11:02 100:94 $0.7550/90 (offers backed by presented 1K $0.7601, but jiggling 01/02 now). The period ended on 11:09's 16.2K $0.7599 (12K blk)/60/55/78.
11:10-12:36 began a very slow extremely low/no-volume decline from 11:10's 133 $0.7573, finally bottoming at 11:53 to begin extremely low/no-volume $0.7510/20. B/a at 11:17 was 400:1.1K $0.7530/9. Volume was interrupted by 11:18's 5.5K $0.7534/38/34/38/35/39/35/30/35/$0.7602/$0.7570/$0.7600/02. B/a at 11:24 was 500:1K $0.7550/74 (offers falling quickly), 11:33 500:800 $0.7515/54 (offers falling), 11:47 500:300 $0.7515/16, 12:02 9.3K:600 $0.7510/1. Volume was interrupted by 12:13's 9.8K $0.7510/1. The period ended on 12:36's 1.2K $0.7518/20.
12:37-13:35 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7559/60 on 12:38's 100 $0.789. B/a at 12:47 was 8.7K:100 $0.7510/19, 12:32 200:500 $0.7518/9, 13:02 200:200 $0.7550/3. Volume and price were interrupted by 13:11's 10.3K (incl 10K blk) $0.7550. B/a at 13:20 was 10:500 $0.7518/40 (bids backed by presented 8.5K $0.7511, offers jiggling 39/400), 13:33 10:100 $0.7518/53 (bids backed by presented 200 $0.7511). The period ended on 13:35's 153 $0.7553.
13:36-13:55, after twelve no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7518/$0.7530 on 13:48's 100 $0.7518. B/a at 13:48 was 7:400 $0.7510/60 (bids backed by presented 8.6K $0.7510). The period ended on 13:55's 7.3K $0.7515/12/10/30.
13:56-14:47, during ten no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:02 of 400:400 $0.7551/60. Trade began $0.7601/$0.7798, and did a low-volume rise and fall, from 14:06's 3.4K $0.7558/60/59/80/59/60/59/80/60/59/80/60/$0.7602. 14:13's 100 hit $0.7798 before starting down at 14:22. B/a at 14:17 was 100:200 $0.7701/98. 14:22's 200 $0.775 started the fall. B/a at 14:32 was 100:1K $0.7650/$0.7689. The period ended on 14:47's 700 $0.7551.
14:48-16:00 began an extremely low/no-volume, through 15:41, rise from 14:49's 400 $0.7750/1. B/a at 14:47 was 600:1.6K $0.7550/89 (offers jiggling 89/90). 14:56's 1.8K hit $0.7589. B/a at 15:01 was 1K:600 $0.7550/79 (offer jiggling 79/80). 15:16's 1.6K hit $0.7578/$0.766. B/a at 15:17 was 100:1.1K $0.7600/59, 15:23 100:1K $0.7657/8. 15:28's 600 hit $0.775. B/a at 15:32 was 100:1K $0.7730/59. 15:43's 8.7K hit $0.77/$0.7823. B/a at 15:47 was 2.2K:600 $0.7700/50. 15:56's 100 hit $0.78. The period ended on 15:57's 100 $0.7890 because there were no trades 15:58-16:00.
There were no AH trades.
In/Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 39,880, 27.77% of day's volume, with a $0.7595 VWAP. For today's volume, both the count and percentage of day's volume seems normal for consolidation behavior.
Imo, the only reason the buy percentage ended so high was the extremely low volume throughout the day and the usual MM's trying to hold price higher to satisfy their goals - likely trying to keep a bullish face to engender more volume so they get the fees from the exchanges. Note that even as buy percentage rose the VWAP did not follow. However the usual rise into the close occurred and managed to produce the close that would suggest there was some bullishness. I suspect this was more a result of MMs and day traders though as the volume, as a percentage of day's volume and in absolute terms, was quite low.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:43 13334 $0.7510 $0.7950 $10,195.76 $0.7646 9.28% 81.91% Incl 09:43 $0.7630 5,500
10:09 17626 $0.7510 $0.7770 $13,405.22 $0.7605 12.27% 45.15%
11:09 28670 $0.7550 $0.7750 $21,763.06 $0.7591 19.96% 60.09% Incl 11:09 $0.7599 12,000
12:36 23317 $0.7510 $0.7602 $17,559.12 $0.7531 16.24% 65.30% Incl 12:13 $0.7511 7,380
13:35 11800 $0.7546 $0.7560 $8,910.18 $0.7551 8.22% 59.03% Incl 13:11 $0.7550 10,000
13:55 7353 $0.7510 $0.7530 $5,524.28 $0.7513 5.12% 54.80%
14:47 10750 $0.7551 $0.7798 $8,199.31 $0.7627 7.49% 53.92%
16:00 29494 $0.7556 $0.7890 $22,751.43 $0.7714 20.54% 51.47% Incl 15:53 $0.7757 5,000
Regardless of my suspicions, the net effect will appear on the charts as suggesting some bullishness, but for the volume. Any astute chart readers will recognize the lack of strength suggested by the volume and tread carefully if they do decide to enter.
A more likely effect will be the the volume/price alert services, if the MMs are successful, will issue their alerts at some point and draw in the momo/day/swing traders. That may give a nice short-term boost. AFAIK that hasn't happened yet during this period.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The volume tells the true story here - no strength in the apparent move higher. This is the second consecutive "up" day (because conventional TA uses the close), even though yesterday was lower everything but close. Volume tanking so badly so quickly says a lot.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.60% 1.35% 1.27% 0.97% -25.09%
Prior -3.75% -3.90% -7.06% 1.61% -60.17%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { we have confirmed a break back below the long-term descending resistance (red line) by closing below it today. This is not good. Fortunately, volume declined substantially, suggesting declining strength in the move lower, and there's a good chance we will get above this line again via a short sideways, with a a mild(?) negative bias, move. }
Today we closed above it, even though about 80% of our range (and volume? Don't know) was below it. It was a mostly sideways move, but didn't end with the negative bias thanks to the close. Oh! The VWAP was up about a half percent, so maybe it's not as dire as I'm thinking. But I fall back on volume, and the ease of manipulation it engenders, to bolster my thinking.
I hope it's not just confirmation bias at work.
The fast EMA is still above the slow EMA and made a second day of teeny rise. The gap between the two remains small and a cross below still seems likely near-term. it would take only a one or two-day hiccup to cause it.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 10 and 20-day SMAs continued the slow rise begun five days back and the 10-day has crossed above the 20-day. If we hold here we'll get 4 days (was 5) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 2 (was 3) days of rise and a return to descending for 3 (was 3) days and then would begin rising for 9 (again) days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 6 (was 7) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days, still.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI (slightly above neutral), accumulation/distribution, MFI (just below overbought and untrusted by me), and Williams %R (slightly above neutral). Weakening occurred in full stochastic (slightly above neutral) and ADX-related.
Today had improvement in RSI (just above neutral), accumulation/distribution, MFI (in overbought and untrusted by me), and Williams %R (just above neutral). Weakening occurred in momentum (just above neutral), full stochastic (below neutral now), and ADX-related (but very near flat).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6965 and $0.8215 ($0.6967 and $0.8168 yesterday), resumed converging with a falling mid-point.
All in, only the intra-day breakdown, declining and very low volume and my assessment of the trading behavior (heavily TFH-influenced) are negative. All the other conventional TA stuff continues to suggest bullishness. I'll iterate though that I think it's almost purely due to MMs struggling to make money and pushing the market in a direction it really doesn't (yet!) want to go.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, but the short percentage is now above my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is in a range that suggests, but not strongly, some near-term upside is likely.
The spread continued to contract and is now just a bit higher than what I would think suggests consolidation is most likely, With the trading range moving slightly up today, we are not yet solidly in the down-leg I've been forecasting. With the volume factored in though it may appear today.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 12 negative and 12 positive after two days steady at 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 01/19 is $0.0577, 8.21%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%.
All in, I think this stuff conflicts in that the short percentage suggests we should see near-term weakening, the buy percentages suggests improvement is possible and the spread suggests consolidation. Adding in volume behavior, I'll go for consolidation and with a mild negative bias as the start of the down-leg should resume in a day or two.
Bill
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