Thursday, February 23, 2017 10:24:12 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/22 2017 EOD
Conflicting signals between the conventional TA, and within it as well, and my unconventional stuff. I go with my stuff and continue to believe near-term weakening as a down-leg within consolidation develops.
Note the ~4% buys in the first period below. Don't often see it this low, although even 0% has been seen off and on.
The intra-day trading today could be easily described as early self-flagellation as the MMs tried to move the market in a direction it didn't want to go, followed by rigor-mortis ~10:40-15:32. Then a resurrection occurred as the MMs again tried to push the market around, but failed quite miserably to sustain the upside.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1K:200 $0.76/7.
09:30-10:01 opened the day with a 1,170 unknown for $0.77 & $0.77 x 200, $0.84 x 65, $0.77 x 200. B/a just after open was 2.8K:5 $0.77/$0.80 (offers backed by presented 20 $0.8036, 10 $0.8350, 7K $0.8390). Then came 9:47's b/a 12.4K:200 $0.7701/$0.8299. Next trades were 9:53's 702 $0.79 (400)/$0.7701. Then came 9:56's b/a 500:2.4K $0.7701/$0.80, and the period ended on 10:01's 35K $0.7701 (10K blk)/00/05/00/98/00/01/00/$0.76/$0.7530/18/00/$0.7400/45/$0.7518/$0.7450/00/$0.7698/$0.7401
10:02-13:56, after one no-trades minute, did a quick small step up on 10:03's 900 $0.7546 (800)/$0.7405, 10:04's 1K $0.7451/$0.75, and 10:05's 1K $0.76/$0.7501/88/90/$0.76. That began a very long, mostly low/no-volume, $0.75/6 with falling highs.
Volume was interrupted by 10:14's 11K $0.7500/80. B/a at 10:10 was 10.1K:2.1K $0.7500/97 (offers falling), 10:18 500:2.6K $0.7501/80 (offers falling). 10:21's 7.8K hit $0.7506/$0.7683, 10:26's 100 hit $0.7690. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7512/$0.7678, with falling highs and rising lows.
B/a at 10:36 was 500:900 $0.7550/$0.7690. Volume was interrupted by 10:39's 37.6K $0.7501/$0.7600/08/$0.7511/$0.7605/ ... $0.7515/12/15/01/05/02/56/12/15/05/57/50/12/11/15/...01/00/10/00. That began a very narrowed range, $0.7549/90 with slowly rising lows and more slowly rising highs.
B/a at 10:49 was 1K:500 $0.7550/94, 11:02 10.1K:400 $0.7590/4 (bids jiggling 90/91), 11:17 300:400 $0.7592/4, 11:32 400:400 $0.7590/4, 11:48 300:300 $0.7593/4, 12:02 200:200 $0.7393/4, 12:17 10K:800 $0.7590/4, 12:31 7.3K:600 $0.7590/4, 12:47 7.3K:800 $0.7590/1, 13:02 7.2K:900 $0.7590/1, 13:47 7.2K:1.1K $0.7590/1, 13:32 7.2K:800 $0.7590/1, 13:46 6.7K:1.1K $0.7590/1. The period ended on 13:56's 2.9K $0.7590.
13:57-15:17, after four no-trades minutes, began a small drop, doing 14:01's 200 $0.759, 14:02's 15K $0.755 (11K blk)/9, 14:10's 13K $0.7550 (9K blk)/04/08/50/45, and 14:16's 1.6K $0.75. This was followed by 14:23's 1.1K bounce to $0.7567 that started a long extremely low/no-volume $0.7560/89. B/a at 14:02 was 3.9K:500 $0.7590/1. B/a at 14:17 was 20.3K:2.7K $0.7500/90, 14:31 600:800 $0.7560/4. Volume was interrupted by 14:39's 5.4K $0.7560/4 and 14:40's3.2K $0.7564. B/a at 14:47 was 400:1.1K $0.7560/88, 15:01 100:200 $0.7560/87, 15:17 100:1.2K $0.7560/86. The period ended on 15:17's 300 $0.7586.
15:18-16:00, after sixteen no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7578/$0.7688 on 15:33's 5.1K $0.7580/6/7/6/$0.7591/86/$0.7689. B/a at 15:32 was 200:2.2K $0-.7554/86. Range squashed to $0.7622/34 after 15:46's 300 $0.7578/$0.7634. B/a at 15:47 was 200:100 $0.7554/$0.7689. 15:57 did 115 $0.789, 15:58 did 100 $0.7554 and the period and day ended on 16:00's (no 15:59 trades) 300 buy for $0.7824, 3.57% above the last prior trade, 15:58's $0.7554.
There was one AH trade of 30 shares for $0.74.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 92,031, 48.00% of day's volume, with a $0.7558 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems higher than usual. The percentage of day's volume is also higher than normal. With a VWAP lower than the day's VWAP, I suspect a majority of these were folks selling their positions. This seems supported by the breakdown below where it's seen most of the larger trades occurred and boosted buy percentage, but not to a level I would expect if buyers were heavy in those larger trades.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { Today price challenged all three lines and was rejected by each as the close was below all three lines. The really nasty part is this occurred on rising volume, up ~276%. In combination, this would suggest near-term most likely move would be lower, fitting with my (a bit too early call by a day?) for entering consolidation with a downward leg beginning.
I have to admit other factors make that seem like a risky position ATM. }
Well, updating that, we have confirmed a break back below the long-term descending resistance (red line) by closing below it today. This is not good. Fortunately, volume declined substantially, suggesting declining strength in the move lower, and there's a good chance we will get above this line again via a short sideways, with a a mild(?) negative bias, move.
As mentioned before, there's a chance the rising known support trend (orange line) will keep us at/above the $0.72ish area when we first encounter it. That could, of course change over time.
The fast EMA is still above the slow EMA, had ceased rising and began to drop, and today made a teeny rise again. The gap between the two is small and a cross below seems likely near-term. I'm still watching for it to become a trend, most likely lower as I think the down-leg will develop.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the small rise begun four days back. The 10-day made a small rise for the fourth day. If we hold here we'll get 5 days (was 6) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 3 (was 4) days of rise and a return to descending for 3 (was 2) days and then would begin rising for 9 (again) days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 7 (was 8) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Short form is most of yesterday's improving oscillators went negative. RSI, MFI, momentum and full stochastic are above neutral, ADX-related is about neutral and the rest are below neutral.
Today had improvement in RSI (slightly above neutral), accumulation/distribution, MFI (just below overbought and untrusted by me), and Williams %R (slightly above neutral). Weakening occurred in full stochastic (slightly above neutral) and ADX-related.
This constant flip-flopping in the oscillators is a result of the rolling over, on declining volume, as we, I think, begin the down-leg I've been expecting. The oscillators "can't make up their mind" over the last few days.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6967 and $0.8168 ($0.6970 and $0.8150 yesterday), stopped converging and switched from a marginally declining mid-point to a marginally rising one as the upper limit rises marginally faster than the lower limit falls.
All in, conflicting signals again, thanks to the volatility in the oscillators, should make me shy about calling a likely near-term behavior. Never fear. I'm attributing the oscillator behavior to the usual uncertainty as a change occurs, exacerbated by the MMs' efforts to hold price higher than the real market is willing to support - IMNSHO. So I'm sticking with entering a down-leg in a consolidation beginning.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, with the short percentage very near the middle of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately, the buy percentage tanked into the area that suggests two things. first is likely more near-term price weakening. Second is that percentage will begin a rebound as price weakens (after all, shorters, MMs and higher-frequency traders need to cover or reload, and long-term investors can't resist "prices which can't go much lower").
The spread contracted but is still wide enough to suggest entering consolidation with a negative bias.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the second consecutive days at 13 negative and 11 positives. Change since 01/18 is $0.0408, 5.70%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%, and -0.1396%.
All in, all my unconventional stuff is leaning negative near-term.
Bill
Conflicting signals between the conventional TA, and within it as well, and my unconventional stuff. I go with my stuff and continue to believe near-term weakening as a down-leg within consolidation develops.
Note the ~4% buys in the first period below. Don't often see it this low, although even 0% has been seen off and on.
The intra-day trading today could be easily described as early self-flagellation as the MMs tried to move the market in a direction it didn't want to go, followed by rigor-mortis ~10:40-15:32. Then a resurrection occurred as the MMs again tried to push the market around, but failed quite miserably to sustain the upside.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1K:200 $0.76/7.
09:30-10:01 opened the day with a 1,170 unknown for $0.77 & $0.77 x 200, $0.84 x 65, $0.77 x 200. B/a just after open was 2.8K:5 $0.77/$0.80 (offers backed by presented 20 $0.8036, 10 $0.8350, 7K $0.8390). Then came 9:47's b/a 12.4K:200 $0.7701/$0.8299. Next trades were 9:53's 702 $0.79 (400)/$0.7701. Then came 9:56's b/a 500:2.4K $0.7701/$0.80, and the period ended on 10:01's 35K $0.7701 (10K blk)/00/05/00/98/00/01/00/$0.76/$0.7530/18/00/$0.7400/45/$0.7518/$0.7450/00/$0.7698/$0.7401
10:02-13:56, after one no-trades minute, did a quick small step up on 10:03's 900 $0.7546 (800)/$0.7405, 10:04's 1K $0.7451/$0.75, and 10:05's 1K $0.76/$0.7501/88/90/$0.76. That began a very long, mostly low/no-volume, $0.75/6 with falling highs.
Volume was interrupted by 10:14's 11K $0.7500/80. B/a at 10:10 was 10.1K:2.1K $0.7500/97 (offers falling), 10:18 500:2.6K $0.7501/80 (offers falling). 10:21's 7.8K hit $0.7506/$0.7683, 10:26's 100 hit $0.7690. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7512/$0.7678, with falling highs and rising lows.
B/a at 10:36 was 500:900 $0.7550/$0.7690. Volume was interrupted by 10:39's 37.6K $0.7501/$0.7600/08/$0.7511/$0.7605/ ... $0.7515/12/15/01/05/02/56/12/15/05/57/50/12/11/15/...01/00/10/00. That began a very narrowed range, $0.7549/90 with slowly rising lows and more slowly rising highs.
B/a at 10:49 was 1K:500 $0.7550/94, 11:02 10.1K:400 $0.7590/4 (bids jiggling 90/91), 11:17 300:400 $0.7592/4, 11:32 400:400 $0.7590/4, 11:48 300:300 $0.7593/4, 12:02 200:200 $0.7393/4, 12:17 10K:800 $0.7590/4, 12:31 7.3K:600 $0.7590/4, 12:47 7.3K:800 $0.7590/1, 13:02 7.2K:900 $0.7590/1, 13:47 7.2K:1.1K $0.7590/1, 13:32 7.2K:800 $0.7590/1, 13:46 6.7K:1.1K $0.7590/1. The period ended on 13:56's 2.9K $0.7590.
13:57-15:17, after four no-trades minutes, began a small drop, doing 14:01's 200 $0.759, 14:02's 15K $0.755 (11K blk)/9, 14:10's 13K $0.7550 (9K blk)/04/08/50/45, and 14:16's 1.6K $0.75. This was followed by 14:23's 1.1K bounce to $0.7567 that started a long extremely low/no-volume $0.7560/89. B/a at 14:02 was 3.9K:500 $0.7590/1. B/a at 14:17 was 20.3K:2.7K $0.7500/90, 14:31 600:800 $0.7560/4. Volume was interrupted by 14:39's 5.4K $0.7560/4 and 14:40's3.2K $0.7564. B/a at 14:47 was 400:1.1K $0.7560/88, 15:01 100:200 $0.7560/87, 15:17 100:1.2K $0.7560/86. The period ended on 15:17's 300 $0.7586.
15:18-16:00, after sixteen no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7578/$0.7688 on 15:33's 5.1K $0.7580/6/7/6/$0.7591/86/$0.7689. B/a at 15:32 was 200:2.2K $0-.7554/86. Range squashed to $0.7622/34 after 15:46's 300 $0.7578/$0.7634. B/a at 15:47 was 200:100 $0.7554/$0.7689. 15:57 did 115 $0.789, 15:58 did 100 $0.7554 and the period and day ended on 16:00's (no 15:59 trades) 300 buy for $0.7824, 3.57% above the last prior trade, 15:58's $0.7554.
There was one AH trade of 30 shares for $0.74.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 92,031, 48.00% of day's volume, with a $0.7558 VWAP. For the day's volume, the count seems higher than usual. The percentage of day's volume is also higher than normal. With a VWAP lower than the day's VWAP, I suspect a majority of these were folks selling their positions. This seems supported by the breakdown below where it's seen most of the larger trades occurred and boosted buy percentage, but not to a level I would expect if buyers were heavy in those larger trades.
Very weak buy percentage all day and a very narrow VWAP spread suggest the MMs were heavily in control today. As mentioned above, the larger trades seem most likely to have been heavily biased to selling. If some were MM "good customers" the MM would have to work the price range to get the price(s) their customers desired without putting themselves out of position related to what the market was during the day. So there was likely a fair amount of short sales (peeking below, yep! near the middle of my "normal" range). This all would fit for my expectation of entering a down leg in consolidation.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:01 37124 $0.7400 $0.7900 $28,218.22 $0.7601 19.36% 4.04% Incl 10:01 $0.7701 10,000 $0.7400 6,720
13:56 102334 $0.7405 $0.7690 $77,317.33 $0.7555 53.38% 22.98% Incl 10:09 $0.7500 7,499 10:14 $0.7580 4,700
10:14 $0.7580 10,000 10:21 6,000
10:39 $0.7501 12,100 $0.7600 5,000 5,000
14:02 $0.7550 11,012 14:10 9,000
14:39 $0.7560 5,000
15:17 44574 $0.7500 $0.7590 $33,675.77 $0.7555 23.25% 29.41%
16:00 6496 $0.7554 $0.7824 $4,942.84 $0.7609 3.39% 31.57%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today broke the string of somewhat flattish behavior we'd been seeing the last few days. Other than the close, it looks like the MMs aren't able to effectively hold the market up as, I think, today finally began the down-leg I'd been calling for the last few days.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -3.75% -3.90% -7.06% 1.61% -60.17%
Prior 0.00% 0.00% 5.84% -3.75% 133.98%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { Today price challenged all three lines and was rejected by each as the close was below all three lines. The really nasty part is this occurred on rising volume, up ~276%. In combination, this would suggest near-term most likely move would be lower, fitting with my (a bit too early call by a day?) for entering consolidation with a downward leg beginning.
I have to admit other factors make that seem like a risky position ATM. }
Well, updating that, we have confirmed a break back below the long-term descending resistance (red line) by closing below it today. This is not good. Fortunately, volume declined substantially, suggesting declining strength in the move lower, and there's a good chance we will get above this line again via a short sideways, with a a mild(?) negative bias, move.
As mentioned before, there's a chance the rising known support trend (orange line) will keep us at/above the $0.72ish area when we first encounter it. That could, of course change over time.
The fast EMA is still above the slow EMA, had ceased rising and began to drop, and today made a teeny rise again. The gap between the two is small and a cross below seems likely near-term. I'm still watching for it to become a trend, most likely lower as I think the down-leg will develop.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the small rise begun four days back. The 10-day made a small rise for the fourth day. If we hold here we'll get 5 days (was 6) of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 3 (was 4) days of rise and a return to descending for 3 (was 2) days and then would begin rising for 9 (again) days. If we hold here the 50 would decline 7 (was 8) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Short form is most of yesterday's improving oscillators went negative. RSI, MFI, momentum and full stochastic are above neutral, ADX-related is about neutral and the rest are below neutral.
Today had improvement in RSI (slightly above neutral), accumulation/distribution, MFI (just below overbought and untrusted by me), and Williams %R (slightly above neutral). Weakening occurred in full stochastic (slightly above neutral) and ADX-related.
This constant flip-flopping in the oscillators is a result of the rolling over, on declining volume, as we, I think, begin the down-leg I've been expecting. The oscillators "can't make up their mind" over the last few days.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6967 and $0.8168 ($0.6970 and $0.8150 yesterday), stopped converging and switched from a marginally declining mid-point to a marginally rising one as the upper limit rises marginally faster than the lower limit falls.
All in, conflicting signals again, thanks to the volatility in the oscillators, should make me shy about calling a likely near-term behavior. Never fear. I'm attributing the oscillator behavior to the usual uncertainty as a change occurs, exacerbated by the MMs' efforts to hold price higher than the real market is willing to support - IMNSHO. So I'm sticking with entering a down-leg in a consolidation beginning.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, with the short percentage very near the middle of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately, the buy percentage tanked into the area that suggests two things. first is likely more near-term price weakening. Second is that percentage will begin a rebound as price weakens (after all, shorters, MMs and higher-frequency traders need to cover or reload, and long-term investors can't resist "prices which can't go much lower").
The spread contracted but is still wide enough to suggest entering consolidation with a negative bias.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the second consecutive days at 13 negative and 11 positives. Change since 01/18 is $0.0408, 5.70%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, 0.2502%, 0.2845%, 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%, and -0.1396%.
All in, all my unconventional stuff is leaning negative near-term.
Bill
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