Organovo Holdings, Inc. (ONVO)

[WHP03]

It's always about revenue growth, which is why the stock has been clobbered from 3.77 to 2.84 when they stated $500-750K of Q4 revenue will be delayed (into Q1), and fiscal 2017 was taken down from a high of $6.2MM to a low of $3.7MM (extreme ends of the guidance old and new). Assuming they hit the middle of new fiscal 2017 guidance ($4.1, the middle of $3.7-$4.5MM) Q4 revenues will be $682,000, which is lower than Q3, which was lower than Q2. That is not the right direction for a growth trend line. So Q4 will be lower than Q3, unless they blow out the upper guidance ($4.5MM).

The key for me regarding revenues is where do they come in for fiscal 2017 - and how do they guide for 2018 (min requirement is 2X 2017). As safe bet is they come in around $4MM and guide to $8MM. That's not a huge guide from the original upper end of 2017 guidance ($6.2MM), but all would show they are indeed growing revenues - just not in a way that proves (yet) there is a ravenous appetite amongst big pharma to move from animal testing to 3D bioprinted toxicity testing.

Assuming $4MM in '17 total rev and guidance to $8MM+, it does leave room for a surprise... for a change.