Thursday, February 16, 2017 10:30:47 AM
Conflicts between the conventional TA and my unconventional stuff, and within that stuff as well, leaves me uncertain. I'm leaning towards the push up being over, but not yet suggesting we will weaken, although there are several items suggesting this will be the case.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7419/$0.8199.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 27,744 buy for $0.79 & $0.79 x 79, $0.7899 x 1K, $0.78 x 21, x 100, $0.79 x 11. Then came 9:30's b/a of 27:1.7K $0.7875/1.7K $0.7875/$0.79 (bids backed by presented 2.3K $0.78). 9:32's 2.1K $0.7899/$0.79 (1K ea.)/$0.78 (100), 9:34's b/a 2.2K:2.5K $0.78/9, 9:35's 12.9K $0.79/$0.7800/53/84/00, 9:36's 21.2K $0.7800/50/99/50/99/98/99/50/99/00, 9:39's 525:1.6K $0.7800/99, 9:39's 1.7K $0.7801/00/$0.77, 9:40's 11.5K $0.7899 (10K blk)/77, 9:42's b/a 15.2K:1.8K $0.7800/98, 9:44's 736 $0.7801/94, 9:46's 201 $0.7801, 9:47's 26.5K $0.7800/3, 9:48's 1.2K $0.7800/85, 9:49's 29.2K $0.78/$0.80, 9:51's 1K $0.8026, 9:53's 5.6K $0.80/1, 9:54's 35.6K $0.8051/$0.82, and the period ended on 9:55's 7.8K $0.8023/$0.83.
9:56-10:24, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $0.80/$0.8114, with falling lows and highs, on 9:57's 15.2K $0.80/$0.8114 and 9:58's 1.8K $0.8050/71. B/a at 10:00 was 300:1.4K $0.80/1. Volume was interrupted by 10:11's 15.1K $0.7996/$0.805 and 10:12's 5.2K$0.7995/$0.8023. B/a at 10:12 was 300:15.4K $0.7995/$0.8050, 10:18 7.4K:15.6K $0.8000/50. The period ended on 10:24's 8K $0.8000/1.
10:25-12:32 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7800/99 on 10:26's 2.1K $0.7840/$0.80 (dropped immediately to high of $0.7899, $0.7883 by 10:40). B/a at 10:45 was 800:4.1K $0.7838/76 (offers rapidly falling). Volume was interrupted by 10:46's 3.9K $0.7838/83. 10:51 moved range back to $0.79/$0.80. Volume was interrupted by 10:56's 10.3K $0.795/$0.80. B/a at 11:02 was 400:3K $0.7930/7 (offers rapidly falling). Range moved again to $0.7901/40 at 10:59. B/a at 11:10 was 200:3.5K $0.7901/85 (offers rapidly falling). Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 5.2K $0.7901/35. B/a at 11:18 was 400:2.9K $0.7901/61 (offers rapidly falling). Volume was interrupted by 11:25's 5.5K $0.79. Range moved to $0.7838/$0.80 on 11:29's 9.1K $0.784/$0.80. B/a at 11:32 was 800:700 $0.7838/$0.7995, 11:48 5.1K:5.7K $0.7900/94, 12:02 5.2K:5.5K $0.7900/93, 12:18 3.4K:4.9K $0.7900/71. Volume was interrupted by 12:26's 12.2K $0.79/$0.80. B/a at was 12:32 3.9K:4.6K $0.7900/75. The period ended on 12:32's 9.7K $0.7936/$0.80.
12:33-13:35 began extremely low/no-volume $0.79/$0.8034, with slowly falling highs, on 12:35's 3.4K $0.8042/$0.7901. B/a at 12:36 was 600:900 $0.7901/$0.8042, 12:47 700:1.1K $0.7902/$0.8042, 13:02 300:5.1K $0.7902/99, 13:17 3.1K:4.3K $0.7900/76 (offers falling rapidly), 13:32 3.2K:2.7K $0.7900/26. The period ended on 13:35's 700 $0.7900/9.
13:36-14:50, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.78/80 on 13:37's 2.2K $0.7802/$0.79. B/a at 14:02 was 4.4K:4.5K $0.78/$0.80. Volume was interrupted by 14:15's 10.2K $0.78/$0.80. B/a at 14:17 was 4.2K:1.1K $0.78/$0.80, 14:32 3.9K:1.3K $0.78/$0.80, 14:47 2.6K:3.9K $0.7800/76 (offers falling rapidly). The period ended on 14:50's 100 $0.78.
14:51-15:06 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7632/34, with marginally rising lows and highs, on 14:51's 18.1K$0.78->$0.7634->$0.7632->$0.7633. B/a at 15:02 was 200:300 $0.7636/50. The period ended on 15:06's 100 $0.7604.
15:07-15:23, after two no-trades minutes, began an initially low/no-volume move up, and then back down, from 15:09's 200 $0.7649/$0.77. The top was hit when 15:15's 12.2K got $0.7799 while doing $0.7890/$0.7780/00/01/70/$0.79/$0.7876/87/70/46/90/66/89/$0.7999/$0.7795/71/$0.7890/66/90/$0.7771/$0.7866/00/$0.7776/$0.7900/$0.7876/50/26. B/a at 15:17 was 5.6K:400 $0.7750/$0.79. The drop back down was a very low/no-volume, through 15:21, sag begun at 15:16. The period ended on 15:22-:23's 64.1K $0.7801/03/00/$0.79/$0.78/$0.7750/75/50/$0.7751/00/$0.7699/... $0.7697/66/$0.78/$0.7666.
15:24-15:54 began extremely low/no-volume, through 15:43, $0.7660/$0.78, with rising lows and falling highs beginning at 15:35, on 15:29's 150 $0.7792. B/a at 15:32 was 5.6K:800 $0.7660/$0.78. Volume went very low/medium-volume at 15:42 as range widened to $0.77/8. Volume was interrupted by 15:53's 10K $0.7794/90/47/90/... 00 and the period ended on 15:54's 2.9K $0.7700/92/00/93/81/46/91/47.
15:55-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began medium/low-volume $0.78/$0.7999 and ended the period and day on 15:59's 3.3K $0.7999/$0.7801/00/69/01/00/ ... 01 and 16:00's 400 $0.80.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 24 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 219,764, 41.49% of day's volume, with a $0.7871 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 23 larger trades totaling 192,020, 36.25% of day's volume, with a $0.7867 VWAP. the counts seem reasonable for the volume and the percentage of day's volume is again hugh. Both are below the day's VWAP of $0.7893, suggesting that some "smart money" was the primary participant(s) in the larger trades. Note, in the following breakdown, that we have both a lot of "larger larger trades" and a good distribution of them throughout the day.
All this fits with what was seen in "the old days" when a positive PR would appear. It also fits with what would be expected within my "three-day window" for pops. In aggregate, highly suggestive of bullish sentiment returning.
As mentioned above, "larger larger trades", a good distribution of them and now a VWAP the held up well in the larger-volume periods with a buy percentage that remained relative strong all day suggests some real bullish sentiment. It also fits the "three-day window" scenario.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 173838 $0.7700 $0.8300 $138,350.47 $0.7959 32.82% 71.35% Incl 09:30 $0.7900 27,744 09:35 10,000
09:36 $0.7899 7,400 09:40 10,000
09:47 $0.7800 10,000 9,229
09:49 $0.8000 4,000 5,000 5,400
09:54 $0.8100 15,314 $0.8200 4,000
10:24 62588 $0.7995 $0.8114 $50,206.62 $0.8022 11.82% 63.61% Incl 09:57 $0.8000 9,289 10:24 5,813
10:11 $0.8050 10,800
12:32 99214 $0.7800 $0.8000 $78,646.70 $0.7927 18.73% 63.48% Incl 11:15 $0.7901 4,800 12:26 $0.8000 5,500
13:35 12467 $0.7900 $0.8042 $9,904.80 $0.7945 2.35% 62.67%
14:50 30459 $0.7800 $0.8000 $24,115.39 $0.7917 5.75% 63.18% Incl 14:15 $0.8000 8,785
15:06 40685 $0.7632 $0.7800 $31,296.59 $0.7692 7.68% 59.72% Incl 14:51 $0.7770 6,590 14:55 $0.7633 4,000
14:59 $0.7637 5,000
15:23 78544 $0.7649 $0.7999 $60,592.68 $0.7714 14.83% 54.41% Incl 15:23 $0.7700 5,000 $0.7660 9,600
15:23 $0.7660 32,000
15:54 18894 $0.7660 $0.7800 $14,684.12 $0.7772 3.57% 55.12% Incl 15:53 $0.7794 4,500
16:00 8881 $0.7800 $0.8000 $7,029.02 $0.7915 1.68% 55.08%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
All positive and supported by good, and rising, volume.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 5.61% 4.53% 5.06% 3.90% 73.26%
Prior -0.27% 0.01% 4.61% 5.48% 2.79%
On my minimal chart the fast EMA continues rising above the slow EMA for the second day now. The high hit a point which may offer a pause, or even confirmed resistance, set by the low of the middle of the "M" pattern (11/3-12/20/16) that began the latest big down move. This is at $0.83 and also a 50% re-trace of the recent low/high range.
We'll need to see if we move on by or reverse from here. Tomorrow will be the third day of my window and we'll want to see if signs of weakening appear.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the small rise begun yesterday. The 10-day continued decreasing for the third consecutive day. If we hold here we'll get 9 days of rising (was 1 falling) 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 7 (was 8) days of rise, a flat and a return to descending for 2 (was 4) days and then would begin rising again. If we hold here the 50 would decline 10 (was 12) days, and the 200-day would fall ~125 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every oscillator I watch. Williams %R moved above oversold. RSI and full stochastic moved above neutral. Everything else was below neutral.
Today had, for the second consecutive day, improvement in every oscillator I watch. Everything but MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R, and accumulation/distribution, are above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6781 and $0.8553 ($0.6746 and $0.8495 yesterday), continue converging with a rising mid-point.
All in, everything suggests near-term strengthening and is supported by good, and rising, volume. The fly in the ointment is that pause point from the big "M", mentioned above, at $0.83. Being this is also ~50% retrace of the fall, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a pause here and maybe even a reversal. Adding in my "three-day window" makes this seem even more likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and the short percentage is now just below the top of my desired range (needs re-check). This could signal that the weakening will begin shortly.
The spread is still too wide for consolidation and was produced by a combination of a good rise and a strong fall. The fall was stronger than the rise. Given this was regardless of the rising volume on an up day this seems not positive. It may be signaling that weakening is coming.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the second consecutive day, 14 negative and 10 positives. Change since 01/11 is $0.0417, 5.58%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2845%, 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%, -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, and 0.2455%.
All in, the short percentage and spread seem to negate the strong buy percentage. The positive trend in the VWAP movements would suggest good things coming. I'm just not sure. With conflicting signals I'll err on the negative side here and say I think the push up is starting to end,
Bill
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