Tuesday, February 14, 2017 3:43:18 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/13 2017 EOD
All the conventional TA stuff, and most of my unconventional stuff, suggests no upward strength is likely. But I have mixed signals regarding weakening in my unconventional stuff. If I had to guess, I would lean towards the old "consolidation with a mild weakening bias".
On this second day of the "three-day window" I use on a catalyst, we returned to form - opening high ($0.74), did a quick pop higher ($0.7552 at 9:33), and then fell to $0.7302 by 9:48. The usual extremely low/no-volume flattish at the low level, through 10:16, was followed by a bump back up to extremely low/no-volume $0.7360/8x (and the highs going to $0.74) through 11:45. Then it bumped up to go extremely low/no-volume flattish $0.7407/$0.749 through 12:19 before tumbling down to $0.7386 by 12:50. Then a long flattish period around there led to a big drop to $0.73 by 15:48. That started the EOD volatility $0.7300/76 into the close at $0.73.
There were no pre-market trades.
Just before open b/a was 400:200 $0.7101/$0.75 (backed by 1.5K:200 $0.71/$0.75).
09:30-09:48 opened the day with a 9,780 unknown for $0.75 & $0.75 x 200, x 3,536, x 50, $0.7450 x 500. Then came 9:30's b/a of 13K:5.2K $0.7450/$0.77, 9:33's b/a 500:11.2K $0.7550/$0.77, 9:33's 3.4K $0.7552/50/51/50/$0.7450, 9:34's 10.6K $0.7450/30 (600)/31, 9:37's b/a 7.2K:1.4K $0.7430/$0.7442, 9:37's1.4K $0.7430, 9:39's b/a 7.1K:2.5K $0.7400/30 (offers falling quickly), 9:39's 8.8K $0.7430/00/28/00.
That began a short low/no-volume $0.7400/12 period. B/a at 9:40 was 3K:2.7K $0.7400/23 (offers falling). The period ended when 9:48 dumped 10.2K $0.74->$0.7302.
9:49-10:16 began with b/a at 9:49 of 100:2.1K $0.7302/97 (offers falling). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7302/17, with falling highs, on 9:49's 100 $0.7302. B/a at 9:59 was 200:200 $0.7302/17. Price was interrupted by 10:04's 200 $0.7307/89 and 10:05's 200 $0.7308/83. B/a at 10:10 was 100:400 $0.7303/10. The period ended on 10:16's 887$0.7310/07.
10:17-11:45 began with b/a of 600:500 $0.7350/80. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7360/90, with falling highs (until 10:55's big volume bumped the high to $0.74), on 10:17's 6K $0.7372. B/a at 10:21 was 600:900 $0.7350/77, 10:32 8.8K:500 $0.7360/80. Volume was interrupted by 10:32's10.3K $0.736. B/a at 10:47 was 7.5K:800 $0.7360/2. Volume was interrupted by 10:46's 18.6K $0.736, 10:55's 15.2K $0.7361/$0.74, and 10:58-:59's 10.2K $0.7371/$0.74 and $0.7381/$0.74. B/a at 11:02 was 500:1.1K 100:1.1K $0.7361/$0.74, 11:17 1.5K:1.5K $0.7362/$0.74 (bids being rattled). Volume was interrupted and highs dropped to $0.7370 on 11:17's 5.8K $0.7361/5. B/a at 11:32 was 100:1.1K $0.7367/70. Volume interruption on 11:41's 15K $0.738/$0.74 moved highs back to $0.74. B/a at 11:45 was 1.2K:900 $0.7401/90. The period ended on 11:45's 4K $0.7386/$0.74.
11:46-12:40 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7407/90,collapsing to $0.7429/30 at 12:22, on 11:49's 100 $0.749. B/a at 11:56 was 1.9K:500 $0.7406/90, 12:18 200:800 $0.7400/90, 12:32 200:500 $0.7429/30. The period ended on 12:40's 900 $0.7429/30
12:40-13:45, after three no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume drop on 12:43's 1.3K $0.7429->$0.74. B/a at 12:47 was 5.6K:500 $0.7370/$0.74. 12:50's 100 hit $0.7386. B/a at 13:02 was 2K:900 $0.7365/70, 13:17 1.1K:600 $0.7365/66, 13:32 1.1K:900 $0.7350/52 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 13:18's 4.3K $0.7365/6. The period ended on 13:45's 7.3K $0.7350/1.
13:46-15:46 had b/a at 13:48 of 2.8K:700 $0.7350/1. After five no-trades minutes trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7350/60, on 13:51's 400 $0.750/1. B/a at 14:02 was 2.5K:1,1K $0.7350/1, 14:17 2.5K:600 $0.7350/1, 14:32 2.5K:500 $0.7350/1, 14:47 2.4K:700 $0.7351/2. Volume was interrupted by 15:11's 5.1K $0.7351/60. B/a at 15:17 was 2.4K:1.1K $0.7351/2. Volume was interrupted by 15:26's 4.4K $0.7350/1 and 15:27's 4K $0.7351/5. B/a at 15:32 was 1.3K:1,2K $0.7350/2. The period ended on 15:46's 100 $0.7356.
15:47-16:00 began with b/a of 1.1K:600 $0.7350/54. After one no-trades minute trade began EOD volume volatility, doing mixed mostly low/medium-volume $0.7300/78 on 15:48's 135 $0.735. The period and day ended on 15:59's14.7K $0.7310/00/ ... 05/10/00/ ... 00/50/00/50 and 16:00's 550 $0.73.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 135,834, 45.67% of day's volume, with a $0.7383 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 17 larger trades totaling 126,054, 42.38% of day's volume, with a $0.7374 VWAP. For the volume, I think the count is above a normal range. The percentage of day's volume is again high. VWAPs straddle the day's $0.7377.
Yesterday, discussing the larger trades, I said { Combined with the rising volume, larger trades count and percentage of day's volume, I suspect we're seeing some bullishness. But the buy percentages (see below) suggest it's not a strong bullish sentiment and the VWAP is down ~2.5% from yesterday. }
Today's VWAP increase of 2.55% seems to have fit the bill. With the VWAP of larger trades excluding the opening block being below the day's VWAP I think less bullishness is suggested.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
I would call it a toss-up but for the intra-day breakdown and the larger trades. Given those, I can buy consolidation but with an initial negative bias.
On my minimal chart yesterday's cautiously bullish though was satisfied by today action. But that's the end of that - it was not a call for a run or any such thing.
There's a potential bearish head and shoulder pattern developing. It may not complete, in which case our normal trends are likely to develop. In this case I'm thinking a negative-bias near-term consolidation beginning. If the H & S completes, we have quite a lot of potential downside, using a measure rule.
Given the manipulation we've observed, frequently over some weeks now, I doubt the pattern will complete. But one never knows.
Our low managed to avoid coming anywhere near the descending support (upper orange line) and our high was flat with yesterday. I guess it's time to find a new set of trend lines ... as soon as I see something worthwhile.
The fast EMA has begun descending while still below the slow EMA.
Other than those things, the only notable thing is it looks very much like we are entering a short-term consolidation with mild negative bias.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the falling begun five days ago while the 10-day gave up slightly increasing and began decreasing. If we hold here we'll get 5 (was 4) more days of falling 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 8 (was) days of rise and a return to descending for 7 days. If we hold here the 50 would decline nineteen days, and the 200-day would fall ~170 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (got out of oversold, barely), and full stochastic (got out of oversold, barely). We had weakening in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in every oscillator but full stochastic. Williams %R is still in oversold. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6692 and $0.8480 ($0.6683 and $0.8482 yesterday), continue converging with a slightly rising mid-point. Trade range is almost entirely below the mid-point.
All in, all of the intra-day breakdown behavior, the conventional TA oscillators and the falling, but still "high", volume on a down day suggest little upward strength. I suspect an entry into a consolidation is beginning, with a mild negative bias. But it's early in the process, if that consolidation is what's really beginning here.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction (YAY!) and the short percentage is just inside the bottom of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately that positive is offset by the buy percentage moving even further below what's need for appreciation and has moved to even more strongly suggesting weakness than was suggested yesterday.
Having said, that, it's quite common when buy percentages get down here they begin to recover. Be aware that they have gone lower recently though (check the table).
The spread is finally back into an area that doesn't suggest huge up/down moves. Unfortunately it was on much-reduced volume, which leaves me wondering if it really tells us anything. I suspect not.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 negative and 9 positives after three days at 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 01/09 is -$0.0068, -0.91%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.0172%, -0.1548%, -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, and 0.4414%.
All in, the conflict in the percentages for shorts and buys weakens any possible near-term forecast, especially on low volume. Just knowing how we've been manipulated though, I thinking that the { ... it's quite common when buy percentages get down here they begin to recover ... } is likely to play out. If so, and it's a strong buy percentage recovery, we should see some price appreciation even if it's only near-term.
Bill
All the conventional TA stuff, and most of my unconventional stuff, suggests no upward strength is likely. But I have mixed signals regarding weakening in my unconventional stuff. If I had to guess, I would lean towards the old "consolidation with a mild weakening bias".
On this second day of the "three-day window" I use on a catalyst, we returned to form - opening high ($0.74), did a quick pop higher ($0.7552 at 9:33), and then fell to $0.7302 by 9:48. The usual extremely low/no-volume flattish at the low level, through 10:16, was followed by a bump back up to extremely low/no-volume $0.7360/8x (and the highs going to $0.74) through 11:45. Then it bumped up to go extremely low/no-volume flattish $0.7407/$0.749 through 12:19 before tumbling down to $0.7386 by 12:50. Then a long flattish period around there led to a big drop to $0.73 by 15:48. That started the EOD volatility $0.7300/76 into the close at $0.73.
There were no pre-market trades.
Just before open b/a was 400:200 $0.7101/$0.75 (backed by 1.5K:200 $0.71/$0.75).
09:30-09:48 opened the day with a 9,780 unknown for $0.75 & $0.75 x 200, x 3,536, x 50, $0.7450 x 500. Then came 9:30's b/a of 13K:5.2K $0.7450/$0.77, 9:33's b/a 500:11.2K $0.7550/$0.77, 9:33's 3.4K $0.7552/50/51/50/$0.7450, 9:34's 10.6K $0.7450/30 (600)/31, 9:37's b/a 7.2K:1.4K $0.7430/$0.7442, 9:37's1.4K $0.7430, 9:39's b/a 7.1K:2.5K $0.7400/30 (offers falling quickly), 9:39's 8.8K $0.7430/00/28/00.
That began a short low/no-volume $0.7400/12 period. B/a at 9:40 was 3K:2.7K $0.7400/23 (offers falling). The period ended when 9:48 dumped 10.2K $0.74->$0.7302.
9:49-10:16 began with b/a at 9:49 of 100:2.1K $0.7302/97 (offers falling). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7302/17, with falling highs, on 9:49's 100 $0.7302. B/a at 9:59 was 200:200 $0.7302/17. Price was interrupted by 10:04's 200 $0.7307/89 and 10:05's 200 $0.7308/83. B/a at 10:10 was 100:400 $0.7303/10. The period ended on 10:16's 887$0.7310/07.
10:17-11:45 began with b/a of 600:500 $0.7350/80. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7360/90, with falling highs (until 10:55's big volume bumped the high to $0.74), on 10:17's 6K $0.7372. B/a at 10:21 was 600:900 $0.7350/77, 10:32 8.8K:500 $0.7360/80. Volume was interrupted by 10:32's10.3K $0.736. B/a at 10:47 was 7.5K:800 $0.7360/2. Volume was interrupted by 10:46's 18.6K $0.736, 10:55's 15.2K $0.7361/$0.74, and 10:58-:59's 10.2K $0.7371/$0.74 and $0.7381/$0.74. B/a at 11:02 was 500:1.1K 100:1.1K $0.7361/$0.74, 11:17 1.5K:1.5K $0.7362/$0.74 (bids being rattled). Volume was interrupted and highs dropped to $0.7370 on 11:17's 5.8K $0.7361/5. B/a at 11:32 was 100:1.1K $0.7367/70. Volume interruption on 11:41's 15K $0.738/$0.74 moved highs back to $0.74. B/a at 11:45 was 1.2K:900 $0.7401/90. The period ended on 11:45's 4K $0.7386/$0.74.
11:46-12:40 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7407/90,collapsing to $0.7429/30 at 12:22, on 11:49's 100 $0.749. B/a at 11:56 was 1.9K:500 $0.7406/90, 12:18 200:800 $0.7400/90, 12:32 200:500 $0.7429/30. The period ended on 12:40's 900 $0.7429/30
12:40-13:45, after three no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume drop on 12:43's 1.3K $0.7429->$0.74. B/a at 12:47 was 5.6K:500 $0.7370/$0.74. 12:50's 100 hit $0.7386. B/a at 13:02 was 2K:900 $0.7365/70, 13:17 1.1K:600 $0.7365/66, 13:32 1.1K:900 $0.7350/52 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 13:18's 4.3K $0.7365/6. The period ended on 13:45's 7.3K $0.7350/1.
13:46-15:46 had b/a at 13:48 of 2.8K:700 $0.7350/1. After five no-trades minutes trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7350/60, on 13:51's 400 $0.750/1. B/a at 14:02 was 2.5K:1,1K $0.7350/1, 14:17 2.5K:600 $0.7350/1, 14:32 2.5K:500 $0.7350/1, 14:47 2.4K:700 $0.7351/2. Volume was interrupted by 15:11's 5.1K $0.7351/60. B/a at 15:17 was 2.4K:1.1K $0.7351/2. Volume was interrupted by 15:26's 4.4K $0.7350/1 and 15:27's 4K $0.7351/5. B/a at 15:32 was 1.3K:1,2K $0.7350/2. The period ended on 15:46's 100 $0.7356.
15:47-16:00 began with b/a of 1.1K:600 $0.7350/54. After one no-trades minute trade began EOD volume volatility, doing mixed mostly low/medium-volume $0.7300/78 on 15:48's 135 $0.735. The period and day ended on 15:59's14.7K $0.7310/00/ ... 05/10/00/ ... 00/50/00/50 and 16:00's 550 $0.73.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 135,834, 45.67% of day's volume, with a $0.7383 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 17 larger trades totaling 126,054, 42.38% of day's volume, with a $0.7374 VWAP. For the volume, I think the count is above a normal range. The percentage of day's volume is again high. VWAPs straddle the day's $0.7377.
Yesterday, discussing the larger trades, I said { Combined with the rising volume, larger trades count and percentage of day's volume, I suspect we're seeing some bullishness. But the buy percentages (see below) suggest it's not a strong bullish sentiment and the VWAP is down ~2.5% from yesterday. }
Today's VWAP increase of 2.55% seems to have fit the bill. With the VWAP of larger trades excluding the opening block being below the day's VWAP I think less bullishness is suggested.
Buy percentage was quite weak all day and the VWAP movements, especially when volume and larger trades are considered, are suggesting near-term weakness, or at least little strength, going forward, regardless of today's VWAP improvement.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:48 59365 $0.7302 $0.7551 $44,219.07 $0.7449 19.96% 21.21% Incl 09:30 $0.7500 9,780 09:34 $0.7450 8,500
09:34 $0.7450 4,613 09:39 $0.7430 6,637
09:48 $0.7400 6,000
10:16 15702 $0.7302 $0.7389 $11,477.70 $0.7310 5.28% 33.00% Incl 09:51 $0.7312 4,000
11:45 121512 $0.7360 $0.7400 $89,631.58 $0.7376 40.85% 40.41% Incl 10:17 $0.7372 6,000 10:32 $0.7360 10,000
10:34 $0.7360 12,000 10:49 12,900 5,000
10:55 $0.7400 9,000 11:17 $0.7361 5,000
11:41 $0.7400 10,000
12:40 8809 $0.7407 $0.7490 $6,538.30 $0.7422 2.96% 39.58%
13:45 25199 $0.7350 $0.7429 $18,574.14 $0.7371 8.47% 39.27% Incl 12:44 $0.7403 4,400
15:46 24222 $0.7350 $0.7360 $17,811.81 $0.7354 8.14% 40.44% Incl 15:45 $0.7360 4,301
16:00 41238 $0.7300 $0.7378 $30,135.23 $0.7308 13.86% 37.04% Incl 15:50 $0.7300 12,200 15:59 $0.7310 5,503
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
If it weren't for the close and volume movements, today would be looking pretty good. The volume is still high enough, I think, to be suggestive of strength in a move. If we use the conventional TA close, it says we have downside coming. If we use the OHL combined with volume, and peek at a chart, we would suspect consolidation is beginning, with little initial movement from here in either direction.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.74% 4.29% 0.69% -2.67% -32.35%
Prior -2.50% 0.29% -6.10% 5.13% 29.12%
I would call it a toss-up but for the intra-day breakdown and the larger trades. Given those, I can buy consolidation but with an initial negative bias.
On my minimal chart yesterday's cautiously bullish though was satisfied by today action. But that's the end of that - it was not a call for a run or any such thing.
There's a potential bearish head and shoulder pattern developing. It may not complete, in which case our normal trends are likely to develop. In this case I'm thinking a negative-bias near-term consolidation beginning. If the H & S completes, we have quite a lot of potential downside, using a measure rule.
Given the manipulation we've observed, frequently over some weeks now, I doubt the pattern will complete. But one never knows.
Our low managed to avoid coming anywhere near the descending support (upper orange line) and our high was flat with yesterday. I guess it's time to find a new set of trend lines ... as soon as I see something worthwhile.
The fast EMA has begun descending while still below the slow EMA.
Other than those things, the only notable thing is it looks very much like we are entering a short-term consolidation with mild negative bias.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the falling begun five days ago while the 10-day gave up slightly increasing and began decreasing. If we hold here we'll get 5 (was 4) more days of falling 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 8 (was) days of rise and a return to descending for 7 days. If we hold here the 50 would decline nineteen days, and the 200-day would fall ~170 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (got out of oversold, barely), and full stochastic (got out of oversold, barely). We had weakening in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in every oscillator but full stochastic. Williams %R is still in oversold. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6692 and $0.8480 ($0.6683 and $0.8482 yesterday), continue converging with a slightly rising mid-point. Trade range is almost entirely below the mid-point.
All in, all of the intra-day breakdown behavior, the conventional TA oscillators and the falling, but still "high", volume on a down day suggest little upward strength. I suspect an entry into a consolidation is beginning, with a mild negative bias. But it's early in the process, if that consolidation is what's really beginning here.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction (YAY!) and the short percentage is just inside the bottom of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately that positive is offset by the buy percentage moving even further below what's need for appreciation and has moved to even more strongly suggesting weakness than was suggested yesterday.
Having said, that, it's quite common when buy percentages get down here they begin to recover. Be aware that they have gone lower recently though (check the table).
The spread is finally back into an area that doesn't suggest huge up/down moves. Unfortunately it was on much-reduced volume, which leaves me wondering if it really tells us anything. I suspect not.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 negative and 9 positives after three days at 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 01/09 is -$0.0068, -0.91%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.0172%, -0.1548%, -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, and 0.4414%.
All in, the conflict in the percentages for shorts and buys weakens any possible near-term forecast, especially on low volume. Just knowing how we've been manipulated though, I thinking that the { ... it's quite common when buy percentages get down here they begin to recover ... } is likely to play out. If so, and it's a strong buy percentage recovery, we should see some price appreciation even if it's only near-term.
Bill
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