RE: 501 million lbs at 2.65 per lb = 1.327 Billion dollars per week.
Johnnyola1
February 12, 2017 10:56 pm
In situ valuation methodology will have its day in some meaningful measure, at some time in the future. For now the bull is just coming off the bottom so this will take time.
The October maiden kakula copper recourse was announced at 14.6 billion pounds, which when added to the existing Kamoa resource (58.8B), resulted in a combined 73B lbs of the world's highest grade copper, premium variety. I speculate based on two subsequent conf. calls, and the company news releases, that the NET addition to Ivanhoe alone at the continuing rate of well over 2 Billion more pounds each month. is another 10+ billion lbs, conservatively, en toto, (at 501 million lbs per week). (i speculate the maiden Kakula announcement was for drilling up to October 1st).
Conference calls can really give an investor a huge edge over the market. Depending of course.
anyway...
We now have 83 billion lbs and counting. My wild guess.
Copper went up 12 cents on Friday. price: 2.77 u.s.
At 83 billion lbs COMBINED TOTALS at both deposits, Ivanhoe is the proud owner of 230 billion dollars U.S. of copper. In the gound.
Now consider that WE HAVE A 2.7 BILLION DOLLAR MARKET CAP.
This should give the board a collective laugh.
This discrepancy, not including our other assets, each of which is the highest grade in the world as well, and one platreef is a tier one deposit with other worldly potential value, I argue is very unfair and must change and over time will change. It will steadily morph, meaning the stock rises.
My second clumsy argument is that there are also "different kinds of in situ assets."
TYPE A IN SITU VARIANT: This type is like a lot of what other company's report, i.e. that they have some allegedly monster project, whereby if and when they tear up half of british columbia or alaska for instance,
receive a loan of 5 or 8 billion dollars to build the facilities to do so,
to then filter out near microscopic particles of a particular metal,
they then can rightfully claim they own "X" gargantuan sized IN SITU deposit,
conditioned of course on getting the company backbreaking and shareholder backbreaking loan, .
TYPE B IN SITU VARIANT: We are the opposite: our stuff is shallow, and much of it higher than the world's average grade by a factor of 5 to 10 times. Stated more dramatically, if you bury a ton of pure copper that is 50 yds directly beneath your feet, inclosed in a box, that is a different "res" than a ton of copper which can be found in five cubic miles of earth, all over the county.
A pound of gold in a gravesite really is FAR HEAVIER than a lb of regular feathers, provided the feathers are sufficiently scattered all over the earth. something like this anyway..
Not all in situ claims are the same.
conclusion: The world's highest grade deposits deserve a dramatic in situ premium.
Voisey Bay's world's highest grade nickle deposit received a 13% in situ purchase price valuation, when it sold almost two decades ago. Sounds about right to me.
What is even 10% of our premium stuff worth to the shareprice? A 23 Billion market cap.
There will come a time when in situ valuations play a role in Mr. Market's evaluations.
The 12 cent increase in copper friday was over well over 4% in the commodty. To us this means a cool 10 billion dollars increase in our coipper assets. However our market cap increased less than 130 million dollars. How laughable.
This is just a mere one tenth of 13%. This suggests Mr. Market is woefully behind events, and downright stingy. He will gradually wise up. No doubt about it. I owned in situ companies a decade ago, and as the bull market in metals evolved, they increased tremendously in value.
Look at the chart of Seabridge Gold last decade. A wild appreciation in value for two years, based on basically nothing, btw...as this was a Type A in situ company, and has remained so to this very day, but for a while there, in situ became the rage, resulting in crazy valuations.
Anybody buying is getting the steal of a lifetime my 2c.
