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Saturday, 02/11/2017 5:50:40 AM

Saturday, February 11, 2017 5:50:40 AM

Post# of 4668

Complete Hole Manifest* 2/11/2017

100% hedged on the long bond.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/4573/real-men-trade-the-long-bond

...article I read a decade ago, title stuck with me.

-s indicates a short position.

Season: Spring.

Currency 10% if in spring PPLT & PALL, 20% if in summer GLD, 0% in fall and winter.

TBF is still the asset of choice, however all eight short run growth and inflation measures point towards winter favoring TLT, as the short run indicators point to higher growth and inflation the hedge will be reduced.

Also this next week JNK could well join TBF as a co-favorite asset. Again if so it would also be perfectly hedged with SJB, given the reason above.

Excellent chance I'll pick up a percent of XIV at close on Monday. Movement from PPLT to PALL is a spring season movement. Among the metals PALL is the most 'spring'ish' vs. PPLT while GLD has summer written all over it.

Equities, other than GDX and AAPL were kicked to the curb, and throw off the side making way for TLT/TBF &/or JNK/SJB, both pairs being perfect, liquid, hedges.

Currency/Commodities

UUP* 2.5%
PPLT* 2.5%
GLD
PALL* 5.0%

Intermediate Bonds

JNK...'spring'

SJB-s...'winter'

Long Bonds

TBF-s*...'spring' 42%

TLT...'winter' 42%

Equities

GDX* 2%
MELT-s

AAPL* 2%

Volitility

XIV-s

VXX

MM

MM* 2%
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