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Will Seasonality End Silver’s Run
By Almanac Trader

* February 10, 2017

Over the years silver has peaked in February, most notably so in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers’ plot to corner the silver market was foiled. Our seasonal analysis shows that going short on or about February 17 and holding until about April 25 has worked 33 times in the last 44 years for a win probability of 75.0%. As you can see in the short silver table, the usual February silver break was trumped by the overarching precious metal bull market of 2002–2011 just four times in ten years.



After suffering losses for two years in a row in 2010 and 2011, this pattern returned to success with its second best performance in 2012 as precious metals in general fell out of favor. This pattern was then successful in 2013, 2014 and 2015. A shaky start for stock markets in early 2016 combined with multi-year lows for silver sparked fresh demand for the metal resulting in a loss last year.



In the above chart, silver’s weekly price bars appear in the top half of the chart and silver’s seasonal trend since 1972 appears in the bottom half. Typical seasonal weakness is highlighted in yellow. Historically, silver has declined from late-February/early-March until the end of June. This year, typical seasonal weakness has yet to materialize, but silver is nearing resistance around $18 per ounce. Silver has also posted a weekly gain for seven straight weeks and appears overbought.

http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/157032113413/will-seasonality-end-silvers-run

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