AI
Tuesday, February 07, 2017 11:54:20 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/06 2017 EOD
Today was the longest flat, and flattest flat non-Friday I can recall. Likely due to the following and no positive market sentiment.
Big bid quantities appeared early on at $0.73. Once that got a permanent toehold at the top of the stack, the quantity was slowly whittled away, leading me to think either shorters/MMs were sitting there letting folks give them shares, or someone was trying to force any buyers to pay up. The latter scenario seems unlikely as the offer stayed within 1/100th of a penny for extended periods, so that would have seemed to be a failed strategy if that was being attempted. So I go with scenario one. If it was MMs, they could be accumulating shares to fill a big order for a "good customer".
I'll never know.
Regardless, $0.73 seems to have become a battleground as $0.7300/20 has been the lows for the last three days and fits with my call a couple days back that it looked like we'd be heading to the low-$0.7x area. Since we are approaching the quarterly CC, it's hard to say how this will go as I'm sure some folks see the pre-announcement as positive and others, like me, see it as "ho-hum".
There was one pre-market trade of $0.80 x 100.
B/a at 9:29 was 100:4K $0.76/$0.80.
09:30-09:40 opened the day with a 943 sell for $0.76 & $0.76 x 200, $0.7502 x 1,465, $0.74 x 500. Then came 9:30's b/a of 100:400 $0.7301/33, 9:31's 600 $0.7333/50, 9:32's 1.3K $0.7350/99/90/50, 9:33's b/a 100:100 $0.7301/$0.7499, 9:34's 665 $0.730-1, 9:38's b/a 100:300 $0.7301/$0.7499, 9:38's 100 $0.7301, 9:39's 4.5K $0.7378/00/01/00, 9:40's b/a 10.2K:500 $0.73/$0.7499, and the period ended on 9:40's 300 $0.73.
09:41-10:48 had 9:43's b/a 100:500 $0.7301/$0.7499 during the first seven no-trades minutes. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/10 (high rising quickly to $0.7350) on 9:47's 5.8K $0.7302 (5K)/1. B/a at 9:51 was 2K:2.2K $0.7304/50 (bids stepping up), 9:56 11.2K:200 $0.7300/50, 10:02 10.5K:700 $0.7300/50. After 10:04's 100 $0.735 we had 2.2K trade $0.7400 through 10:13, $0.7399 x 254 at 10:14, 10:14's b/a 300:600 $0.7399/$0.74, $0.74 x 100 at 10:16, and 100 ea. $0.$0.74/$0.7399, before range dropped back to do $0.7301/33 on 10:21's 1.1K $0.7399/10/01. B/a at 10:33 was 6.9K:600 $0.7320/63. Volume was interrupted by 10:40's 8.5K $0.7310/21 and 10:42's 50.3K $0.7301/10. B/a at 10:44 was 4.8K:500 $0.7301/13. The period ended on 10:45-:48's 50.8K $0.7312/01/09/06/01/08/05/01/04/01/02/01/00/ ... 00.
10:49-15:55 began low, and declining, volume $0.73 (and rising)/$0.7348 (and declining) on 10:49's 5.6K .7300/57. This was one of the longest, flattest, non-Friday periods I can recall encountering. B/a at 10:53 was 6.9K:1.3K $0.7310/39 (offers dropping). By 11:00 trade was extremely low/no-volume $0.7310/1. B/a at 11:02 was 6.1K:900 $0.7310/34, 11:17 1.1K:1K $0.7310/11.
By 11:27 trade had become extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/1. 11:32 73K:500 $0.7300/1. At 11:45 range broadened a bit and began extremely low/no-volume $0.7302/26. B/a at 11:47 was 5.4K:600 $0.7325/6, 12:02 200:1.8K $0.7302/12. At 12:03 it was back to extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/1. B/a at 12:17 was 67K:1.2K $0.7300/1, 12:32 67K:600 $0.7300/1. Volume was interrupted by 10:46's 10.3K $0.7300/31. B/a at 12:47 was 67K:700 was $0.7300/27, 13:02 64.1K:900 $0.7300/1, 13:17 62.1K:2.1K $0.7300/1, 13:32 60.1K:1.4K $0.7300/1. Volume was interrupted by 13:46's10.1K $0.7300/1. B/a at 13:47 was 59.1K:700 $0.7300/1, 14:02 58.1K:800 $0.7300/1, 14:19 200:1.2K $0.7301/2, 14:33 54.1K:1K $0.7300/1, 14:47 39.4K:700 $0.7300/1, 15:02 38.8K:400 $0.7300/7. Volume was interrupted by 15:15's 16.3K $0.7300/1 and volume became very low, improved from extremely low. B/a at 15:17 was 31.7K:700 $0.$0.7300/1. Volume was again interrupted by 15:22's 13.8K $0.7300/1. B/a at 15:33 was 21.3K:600 $0.7300/1, 15:47 21K:200 $0.7300/1. The period ended on 15:55's 11.1K $0.7300/1/0/20.
15:56-16:00 began the typical EOD volatility, with high and medium volume, pushing price as high as $0.75, on 15:56's 2.6K $0.7301/0/$0.74/$0.7301/0/$0.7418/$0.7301/0/1/ ...0/$0.7499 (200)/$0.7301/0/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's 2.5K $0.7450/$0.7302/01/ ... 02/01 and the close was the last 15:59 trade of $0.7301 x 100 because the 16:00 trade was a 2-share odd-lot $0.7474 and odd-lots are not allowed to be an "official" OLHC.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 133,450, 36.97% of day's volume, with a $0.7307 VWAP. As with yesterday, for the volume, the count seems high. The percentage of day's volume is also high.
The VWAP was slightly below the day's $0.7310, suggesting more astute players, like shorters and/or MMs, were involved in these trades.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the low didn't drop to the descending support (upper orange line of consolidation triangle) today. There was very strong support, in terms of bid quantity, at $0.73 which could not be penetrated by today extremely flat and low-volume trading behavior. I do expect we will get back to riding it lower (although I've not looked at any other of today's TA stuff yet). The trend of lower highs is intact. Today's down day was on rising, and relatively strong, volume.
The real high (see note above) was only a penny above the $0.75 support/resistance (white horizontal line). Looking at VWAP (above in breakdown and below) we see that the vast majority of trade was below this price.
The fast EMA crossed below the slow EMA today.
This might the start of a consolidation, but I suspect the low of that is not yet set.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA switched from slowly rising to decreasing while the 10-day continued slightly increasing. The margin above the 20-day continued to increase today. If we hold here we'll get 3 more days of rising 10-day SMA and then begin to roll over, quite rapidly. The 20-day would have 5 days of decline. If we hold here the 50 would decline 24 (days was 23), and the 200-day would again fall ~135 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch, for the second consecutive day, had every oscillator weakened. All were below neutral but for MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum.
Today, for the third consecutive day, had every oscillator weakened. All are below neutral but for MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum. Williams %R is barely above oversold and full stochastic has entered that state.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6395 and $0.8554 ($0.6365 and $0.8553 yesterday), are converging with a rising mid-point as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit falls.
All in, but for the volume rising now, I hold with yesterday's { ... but for the falling volume suggesting no downward strength, everything says near-term weakening is most likely. I'm still not sure if we are entering consolidation yet, but we seem to certainly have a down-leg developing, albeit somewhat slowly. }
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and the short percentage moved strongly from the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) to the upper end of it. The buy percentage fell from "no man's land", suggesting neither strengthening nor weakening, to strongly suggesting weakening.
The spread widened and is in a range strongly suggesting more downside when we are in a weakening trend on price, as the declining VWAP suggests.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fifth day, 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 12/30 is $0.0443, 6.45%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, -0.1914%, -0.2299%, and -0.4513%. This trend's positive stopped weakening after three days.
All in, the suggestion of near-term weakening being most likely remains in place.
Bill
Today was the longest flat, and flattest flat non-Friday I can recall. Likely due to the following and no positive market sentiment.
Big bid quantities appeared early on at $0.73. Once that got a permanent toehold at the top of the stack, the quantity was slowly whittled away, leading me to think either shorters/MMs were sitting there letting folks give them shares, or someone was trying to force any buyers to pay up. The latter scenario seems unlikely as the offer stayed within 1/100th of a penny for extended periods, so that would have seemed to be a failed strategy if that was being attempted. So I go with scenario one. If it was MMs, they could be accumulating shares to fill a big order for a "good customer".
I'll never know.
Regardless, $0.73 seems to have become a battleground as $0.7300/20 has been the lows for the last three days and fits with my call a couple days back that it looked like we'd be heading to the low-$0.7x area. Since we are approaching the quarterly CC, it's hard to say how this will go as I'm sure some folks see the pre-announcement as positive and others, like me, see it as "ho-hum".
There was one pre-market trade of $0.80 x 100.
B/a at 9:29 was 100:4K $0.76/$0.80.
09:30-09:40 opened the day with a 943 sell for $0.76 & $0.76 x 200, $0.7502 x 1,465, $0.74 x 500. Then came 9:30's b/a of 100:400 $0.7301/33, 9:31's 600 $0.7333/50, 9:32's 1.3K $0.7350/99/90/50, 9:33's b/a 100:100 $0.7301/$0.7499, 9:34's 665 $0.730-1, 9:38's b/a 100:300 $0.7301/$0.7499, 9:38's 100 $0.7301, 9:39's 4.5K $0.7378/00/01/00, 9:40's b/a 10.2K:500 $0.73/$0.7499, and the period ended on 9:40's 300 $0.73.
09:41-10:48 had 9:43's b/a 100:500 $0.7301/$0.7499 during the first seven no-trades minutes. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/10 (high rising quickly to $0.7350) on 9:47's 5.8K $0.7302 (5K)/1. B/a at 9:51 was 2K:2.2K $0.7304/50 (bids stepping up), 9:56 11.2K:200 $0.7300/50, 10:02 10.5K:700 $0.7300/50. After 10:04's 100 $0.735 we had 2.2K trade $0.7400 through 10:13, $0.7399 x 254 at 10:14, 10:14's b/a 300:600 $0.7399/$0.74, $0.74 x 100 at 10:16, and 100 ea. $0.$0.74/$0.7399, before range dropped back to do $0.7301/33 on 10:21's 1.1K $0.7399/10/01. B/a at 10:33 was 6.9K:600 $0.7320/63. Volume was interrupted by 10:40's 8.5K $0.7310/21 and 10:42's 50.3K $0.7301/10. B/a at 10:44 was 4.8K:500 $0.7301/13. The period ended on 10:45-:48's 50.8K $0.7312/01/09/06/01/08/05/01/04/01/02/01/00/ ... 00.
10:49-15:55 began low, and declining, volume $0.73 (and rising)/$0.7348 (and declining) on 10:49's 5.6K .7300/57. This was one of the longest, flattest, non-Friday periods I can recall encountering. B/a at 10:53 was 6.9K:1.3K $0.7310/39 (offers dropping). By 11:00 trade was extremely low/no-volume $0.7310/1. B/a at 11:02 was 6.1K:900 $0.7310/34, 11:17 1.1K:1K $0.7310/11.
By 11:27 trade had become extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/1. 11:32 73K:500 $0.7300/1. At 11:45 range broadened a bit and began extremely low/no-volume $0.7302/26. B/a at 11:47 was 5.4K:600 $0.7325/6, 12:02 200:1.8K $0.7302/12. At 12:03 it was back to extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/1. B/a at 12:17 was 67K:1.2K $0.7300/1, 12:32 67K:600 $0.7300/1. Volume was interrupted by 10:46's 10.3K $0.7300/31. B/a at 12:47 was 67K:700 was $0.7300/27, 13:02 64.1K:900 $0.7300/1, 13:17 62.1K:2.1K $0.7300/1, 13:32 60.1K:1.4K $0.7300/1. Volume was interrupted by 13:46's10.1K $0.7300/1. B/a at 13:47 was 59.1K:700 $0.7300/1, 14:02 58.1K:800 $0.7300/1, 14:19 200:1.2K $0.7301/2, 14:33 54.1K:1K $0.7300/1, 14:47 39.4K:700 $0.7300/1, 15:02 38.8K:400 $0.7300/7. Volume was interrupted by 15:15's 16.3K $0.7300/1 and volume became very low, improved from extremely low. B/a at 15:17 was 31.7K:700 $0.$0.7300/1. Volume was again interrupted by 15:22's 13.8K $0.7300/1. B/a at 15:33 was 21.3K:600 $0.7300/1, 15:47 21K:200 $0.7300/1. The period ended on 15:55's 11.1K $0.7300/1/0/20.
15:56-16:00 began the typical EOD volatility, with high and medium volume, pushing price as high as $0.75, on 15:56's 2.6K $0.7301/0/$0.74/$0.7301/0/$0.7418/$0.7301/0/1/ ...0/$0.7499 (200)/$0.7301/0/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's 2.5K $0.7450/$0.7302/01/ ... 02/01 and the close was the last 15:59 trade of $0.7301 x 100 because the 16:00 trade was a 2-share odd-lot $0.7474 and odd-lots are not allowed to be an "official" OLHC.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 133,450, 36.97% of day's volume, with a $0.7307 VWAP. As with yesterday, for the volume, the count seems high. The percentage of day's volume is also high.
The VWAP was slightly below the day's $0.7310, suggesting more astute players, like shorters and/or MMs, were involved in these trades.
Everything, VWAP, buy percentage, and low/high (see following note about the high) seems flat today.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:40 10638 $0.7300 $0.8000 $7,866.76 $0.7395 2.95% 33.79%
10:48 148607 $0.7300 $0.7400 $108,607.27 $0.7308 41.17% 31.35% Incl 09:47 $0.7302 5,000 09:48 $0.7317 9,700
09:53 $0.7345 5,200 10:40 $0.7320 5,914
10:42 $0.7301 49,136 10:45 $0.7309 6,400
10:45 $0.7306 6,400
15:55 186622 $0.7300 $0.7357 $136,357.20 $0.7307 51.71% 30.71% Incl 10:57 $0.7339 4,400 11:27 $0.7301 4,500
11:58 $0.7325 5,000 13:46 $0.7300 9,500
15:15 $0.7300 14,000 15:55 $0.7302 8,300
16:00 9685 $0.7300 $0.7500 $7,092.39 $0.7323 2.68% 30.10%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Ignore the day's high - it was $0.80 x 100 pre-market trade. The real high was $0.76.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -3.80% -0.27% 1.27% -3.95% 29.85%
Prior -4.82% 0.27% -7.06% -1.61% -55.71%
On my minimal chart the low didn't drop to the descending support (upper orange line of consolidation triangle) today. There was very strong support, in terms of bid quantity, at $0.73 which could not be penetrated by today extremely flat and low-volume trading behavior. I do expect we will get back to riding it lower (although I've not looked at any other of today's TA stuff yet). The trend of lower highs is intact. Today's down day was on rising, and relatively strong, volume.
The real high (see note above) was only a penny above the $0.75 support/resistance (white horizontal line). Looking at VWAP (above in breakdown and below) we see that the vast majority of trade was below this price.
The fast EMA crossed below the slow EMA today.
This might the start of a consolidation, but I suspect the low of that is not yet set.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA switched from slowly rising to decreasing while the 10-day continued slightly increasing. The margin above the 20-day continued to increase today. If we hold here we'll get 3 more days of rising 10-day SMA and then begin to roll over, quite rapidly. The 20-day would have 5 days of decline. If we hold here the 50 would decline 24 (days was 23), and the 200-day would again fall ~135 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch, for the second consecutive day, had every oscillator weakened. All were below neutral but for MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum.
Today, for the third consecutive day, had every oscillator weakened. All are below neutral but for MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum. Williams %R is barely above oversold and full stochastic has entered that state.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6395 and $0.8554 ($0.6365 and $0.8553 yesterday), are converging with a rising mid-point as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit falls.
All in, but for the volume rising now, I hold with yesterday's { ... but for the falling volume suggesting no downward strength, everything says near-term weakening is most likely. I'm still not sure if we are entering consolidation yet, but we seem to certainly have a down-leg developing, albeit somewhat slowly. }
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and the short percentage moved strongly from the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) to the upper end of it. The buy percentage fell from "no man's land", suggesting neither strengthening nor weakening, to strongly suggesting weakening.
The spread widened and is in a range strongly suggesting more downside when we are in a weakening trend on price, as the declining VWAP suggests.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fifth day, 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 12/30 is $0.0443, 6.45%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, -0.1914%, -0.2299%, and -0.4513%. This trend's positive stopped weakening after three days.
All in, the suggestion of near-term weakening being most likely remains in place.
Bill
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