Monday, February 06, 2017 11:54:49 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/03 2017 EOD
Today was a "choppy" version of the typical open high, drop big, recover around have the drop, a long extremely low/no-volume +(but broken up by one-minute spikes, as usual) flattish period. Then, unusually, we got a couple hours into the close that was a wide (but slowly narrowing), extremely low/no-volume sideways, with falling highs, until the last few minutes into the close did medium volume in a relatively narrow range.
Everything continues to suggest continuing near-term weakness as the most likely, but for the falling volume. However, that in itself is not enough to sway me from what everything else (discounting the, IMO, obvious manipulation attempts at/after day's end).
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a before open was 1K:1.5K $0.75/$0.80.
09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 3,061 $0.79 buy & $0.77 x 100. Then came b/a 2.3K 500 $0.77/$0.7899, 9:31's 100 $0.77, 9:32's 7.3K $0.7700/1/2/1/7/1/9/1$0.7899/$0.7701, 9:34's 1.5K $0.7701/02/05/06/08/10/11/00, 9:36-:37, :39's 100 ea. $0.77, 9:42's 600 $0.77, 9:44's 100 $0.77, 9:45's 110 $0.77, 9:50's b/a 1.1K:4.7K $0.7700/97, 9:47's 100 $0.77, 9:48's 200 $0.77, 9:50's 100 $0.77, 9:51's 200 $0.77, 9:53's 100 $0.77, 9:54's 6.1K $0.77.$0.7501/00/01/00, 9:55's 150 $0.7798, 9:56's 300 $0.7502/3, 9:57's 1.1K $0.7502/00/01/02/10/16, 9:58's 4.9K $0.7780/$0.7691, 9:59's 100 $0.7501. The period ended on 10:00's 430 $0.7576.
10:01-10:19 began low/medium-volume decline on 10:01's 100 $0.7501, 10:02's 200 $0.7501, 10:04's 1.3K $0.75, 10:05's 100 $0.75, 10:06's 175 $0.75, 10:07's 100 $0.75, 10:08's 4K $0.7501/07/01/09/01/12/75/01/76/01, 10:10's 200 $0.75,10:11's 2.6K $0.75, 10:12's b/a 6.1K:200 $0.7500/1, 10:12's 100 $0.75, 1013's 2K $0.75, 10:14's 9.5K $0.75 (3K)/$0.7400/97, 10:15's 2K $0.74, 10:30's b/a 9.5K:400 $0.7320/1. The period ended on 10:19's 1.7K $0.74.
10:20-10:32, after one no-trades minute, began a short very low/medium-volume, but for the last minute, $0.7320/1 on 10:21's 100 $0.732. B/a at 10:33 was 8.6:200 $0.7320/$0.7576. The period ended on 10:32's 10.5K $0.732.
10:33-10:48, after one no-trades minute, began $0.7502/42, with falling lows and highs, on 10:34's 7K $0.7321/0/1/2/$0.7502 (3.6K)/$0.7321/$0.7331/2/3/4/7/30. B/a at 10:38 was 399:400 $0.7505/76. The period ended on 10:48's 2.9K $0.7360/62/$0.7400/$0.7370/$0.7525/$0.7370/$0.7525.
10:49-11:08, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7321/61, with falling on highs, 10:50's100 $0.736. B/a at 10:59 was 200:300 $0.7321/2. The period ended on 11:08's 100 $0.7322.
11:09-11:21, after one no-trades minute, began low/medium/high-volume $0.7322/$0.7461 on 11:10's 1.4K $0.7322/61. The period ended on 11:21's 5K $0.7323.
11:22-11:57 began by doing a 7.89% swing, $0.7322/$0.79, and setting the days high on 11:22's 28.3K $0.7325/3/2/3/7/$0.7525/4/50/49/$0.7324/30/24/33/24/35/24/$0.7464/64/56/90/63/55/89/$0.7549/$0.7793/$0.7550/$0.7793/$0.7324/28/30/33/34/26/$0.7697/$0.77/$0.79/$0.7800/92/50/98/50/$0.3727. Price then dropped all the way back down to $0.7326 the next minute to began a low/medium-volume climb of similar magnitude to hit $0.79 again at 11:47 on 10.6K. B/a at 11:29 was 1.2K:100 $0.7370/$0.75. 11:48 onward traded only ~3.7K $0.7595/$0.76 to end the period on 11:57's 100 $0.7595.
11:58-12:45, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume narrow $0.7502/3 on 11:59's 100 $0.7502. B/a at 12:05 was 4.7K:200 $0.7502/3, 12:39 2.7K:400 $0.7502/3. The period ended on 12:45's 100 $0.7502.
12:46-13:41 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7502/13 on 12:46's 100 $0.7503. Price and volume were interrupted by 12:50's 5.2K $0.7511/$0.79 swing to the day's high again and 12:51's 1.2K $0.7506/$0.76. B/a at 12:59 was 1.3K:200 $0.7503/97 (bids jiggling $0.07502/3). Price was again interrupted by 13:12's $0.7512/97 and 13:19's 200 $0.7590/7. The period ended on 13:41's 100 $0.7518.
13:42-14:15, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7518/$0.7601 on 13:43's 100 $0.76. B/a at 13:52 was 200:300 $0.7518/$0.78. Price was interrupted by 13:58-14:00's 450 $0.77/$0.7518/$0.7695/$0.7522. The period ended on 14:15's 3.7K $0.7518/7/25/$0.76 (3.25K).
14:16-14:45 began an extremely low/no-volume, but for 14:19's 4.2K, big move up and back down on 14:16's 1K $0.7601. B/a at 14:30 was 100:500 $0.7660/$0.79 (bids being walked up). The top was hit on 14:33's 100 $0.7849 and price began doing an extremely low/no-volume, but for 14:42's 6K $0.7600/24, sag back down to end the period on 14:45's 100 $0.7601.
14:46-15:43, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume $0.76/8 on 14:47's 100 $0.76. B/a at 14:48 was 1K:200 $0.76/7, 14:52 200:34K $0.7650/$0.78, 15:07 1K:300 $0.7600/1, 15:32 100:32.1K $0.7650/$0.7800. The period ended on 15:43's 100 $0.77.
15:44-15:59 began low/medium-volume $0.7600/84 (with slowly falling highs) on 15:44's 200 $0.765. The period and day ended on 15:59's 5.3K $0.7600/11 putting the close at 15:59's last trade of $0.7601 x 100 because the was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There was one AH trade of $0.7400 x 100 at 18:36. This is suspicious because it came so late, on a Friday, and was -2.64% below the closing trade. I think it says we'll again go lower.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 14 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 79,338, 28.54% of day's volume, with a $0.7456 VWAP. For the volume the count seems a tad high but the percentage of day's volume is in a normal range. Both numbers may be a bit low as there were several 4K+ trades that I strongly suspected were part of larger trades but I couldn't find even a smidgen of support for then and so excluded them.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart today's low appears, for the second consecutive day, to be exactly sitting atop the descending support (formerly resistance) of the former consolidation triangle (orange lines), the close is further above the white line potential support/resistance at $0.75 (again, thanks to the MM) than it was yesterday. The high is continuing a steep decline since the pop, but the volume fell off substantially today. But this may be a "Friday effect", so we can't really guess if it suggests reducing strength in the move downward.
As with yesterday, I can't say if we are already beginning consolidation or not, but { I'm presuming our first leg of any consolidation will be a down leg and we don't yet know the reversal point. It might immediately bounce off the descending support or it may track lower for a while. I guess we all hope it won't break below. } So far, it's riding the line lower, but it's only two days - insufficient to establish a trend.
The fast EMA continues descending and is now barely above the slow EMA, $0.7809 vs. $0.7641. I still expect we'll see a cross below in short order.
Our price range was almost exactly centered on the former $0.75 resistance (white line) and the VWAP of $0.7537 shows this.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA stopped decreasing its rate of rise while the 10-day switched from a decreasing rate of rise to slightly increasing. The margin above the 20-day continues to increase today. If we hold here we'll get 5 more days of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 15 days (was 16) of rise. If we hold here the 50 would decline 23 (days was 20), and the 200-day would again fall ~135 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had every oscillator weakened. Everything was above neutral but accumulation/distribution and Williams %R, both were below neutral.
Today again had every oscillator weakened. All are below neutral but for MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6365 and $0.8553 ($0.6326 and $0.8527 yesterday), are converging as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit, also raising the mid-point.
All in, but for the falling volume suggesting no downward strength, everything says near-term weakening is most likely. I'm still not sure if we are entering consolidation yet, but we seem to certainly have a down-leg developing, albeit somewhat slowly.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, and the short percentage is nearer the mid-point of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately the buy percentage remains at a level suggesting near-term weakness is most likely.
The spread contracted back to that seen 2/1, offering some hope that the down move is weakening. It's still to wide to indicate consolidation is in progress, but it's not high enough to make continued strong downward moves likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fourth day, 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 12/29 is $0.0317, 4.39, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, -0.1914%, -0.2299%, -0.4513%, and -0.6887%. This trend's positive bias weakened for the third day.
All in, the suggestion of near-term weakening being most likely remains in place.
Bill
Today was a "choppy" version of the typical open high, drop big, recover around have the drop, a long extremely low/no-volume +(but broken up by one-minute spikes, as usual) flattish period. Then, unusually, we got a couple hours into the close that was a wide (but slowly narrowing), extremely low/no-volume sideways, with falling highs, until the last few minutes into the close did medium volume in a relatively narrow range.
Everything continues to suggest continuing near-term weakness as the most likely, but for the falling volume. However, that in itself is not enough to sway me from what everything else (discounting the, IMO, obvious manipulation attempts at/after day's end).
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a before open was 1K:1.5K $0.75/$0.80.
09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 3,061 $0.79 buy & $0.77 x 100. Then came b/a 2.3K 500 $0.77/$0.7899, 9:31's 100 $0.77, 9:32's 7.3K $0.7700/1/2/1/7/1/9/1$0.7899/$0.7701, 9:34's 1.5K $0.7701/02/05/06/08/10/11/00, 9:36-:37, :39's 100 ea. $0.77, 9:42's 600 $0.77, 9:44's 100 $0.77, 9:45's 110 $0.77, 9:50's b/a 1.1K:4.7K $0.7700/97, 9:47's 100 $0.77, 9:48's 200 $0.77, 9:50's 100 $0.77, 9:51's 200 $0.77, 9:53's 100 $0.77, 9:54's 6.1K $0.77.$0.7501/00/01/00, 9:55's 150 $0.7798, 9:56's 300 $0.7502/3, 9:57's 1.1K $0.7502/00/01/02/10/16, 9:58's 4.9K $0.7780/$0.7691, 9:59's 100 $0.7501. The period ended on 10:00's 430 $0.7576.
10:01-10:19 began low/medium-volume decline on 10:01's 100 $0.7501, 10:02's 200 $0.7501, 10:04's 1.3K $0.75, 10:05's 100 $0.75, 10:06's 175 $0.75, 10:07's 100 $0.75, 10:08's 4K $0.7501/07/01/09/01/12/75/01/76/01, 10:10's 200 $0.75,10:11's 2.6K $0.75, 10:12's b/a 6.1K:200 $0.7500/1, 10:12's 100 $0.75, 1013's 2K $0.75, 10:14's 9.5K $0.75 (3K)/$0.7400/97, 10:15's 2K $0.74, 10:30's b/a 9.5K:400 $0.7320/1. The period ended on 10:19's 1.7K $0.74.
10:20-10:32, after one no-trades minute, began a short very low/medium-volume, but for the last minute, $0.7320/1 on 10:21's 100 $0.732. B/a at 10:33 was 8.6:200 $0.7320/$0.7576. The period ended on 10:32's 10.5K $0.732.
10:33-10:48, after one no-trades minute, began $0.7502/42, with falling lows and highs, on 10:34's 7K $0.7321/0/1/2/$0.7502 (3.6K)/$0.7321/$0.7331/2/3/4/7/30. B/a at 10:38 was 399:400 $0.7505/76. The period ended on 10:48's 2.9K $0.7360/62/$0.7400/$0.7370/$0.7525/$0.7370/$0.7525.
10:49-11:08, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7321/61, with falling on highs, 10:50's100 $0.736. B/a at 10:59 was 200:300 $0.7321/2. The period ended on 11:08's 100 $0.7322.
11:09-11:21, after one no-trades minute, began low/medium/high-volume $0.7322/$0.7461 on 11:10's 1.4K $0.7322/61. The period ended on 11:21's 5K $0.7323.
11:22-11:57 began by doing a 7.89% swing, $0.7322/$0.79, and setting the days high on 11:22's 28.3K $0.7325/3/2/3/7/$0.7525/4/50/49/$0.7324/30/24/33/24/35/24/$0.7464/64/56/90/63/55/89/$0.7549/$0.7793/$0.7550/$0.7793/$0.7324/28/30/33/34/26/$0.7697/$0.77/$0.79/$0.7800/92/50/98/50/$0.3727. Price then dropped all the way back down to $0.7326 the next minute to began a low/medium-volume climb of similar magnitude to hit $0.79 again at 11:47 on 10.6K. B/a at 11:29 was 1.2K:100 $0.7370/$0.75. 11:48 onward traded only ~3.7K $0.7595/$0.76 to end the period on 11:57's 100 $0.7595.
11:58-12:45, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume narrow $0.7502/3 on 11:59's 100 $0.7502. B/a at 12:05 was 4.7K:200 $0.7502/3, 12:39 2.7K:400 $0.7502/3. The period ended on 12:45's 100 $0.7502.
12:46-13:41 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7502/13 on 12:46's 100 $0.7503. Price and volume were interrupted by 12:50's 5.2K $0.7511/$0.79 swing to the day's high again and 12:51's 1.2K $0.7506/$0.76. B/a at 12:59 was 1.3K:200 $0.7503/97 (bids jiggling $0.07502/3). Price was again interrupted by 13:12's $0.7512/97 and 13:19's 200 $0.7590/7. The period ended on 13:41's 100 $0.7518.
13:42-14:15, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7518/$0.7601 on 13:43's 100 $0.76. B/a at 13:52 was 200:300 $0.7518/$0.78. Price was interrupted by 13:58-14:00's 450 $0.77/$0.7518/$0.7695/$0.7522. The period ended on 14:15's 3.7K $0.7518/7/25/$0.76 (3.25K).
14:16-14:45 began an extremely low/no-volume, but for 14:19's 4.2K, big move up and back down on 14:16's 1K $0.7601. B/a at 14:30 was 100:500 $0.7660/$0.79 (bids being walked up). The top was hit on 14:33's 100 $0.7849 and price began doing an extremely low/no-volume, but for 14:42's 6K $0.7600/24, sag back down to end the period on 14:45's 100 $0.7601.
14:46-15:43, after one no-trades minute, began an extremely low/no-volume $0.76/8 on 14:47's 100 $0.76. B/a at 14:48 was 1K:200 $0.76/7, 14:52 200:34K $0.7650/$0.78, 15:07 1K:300 $0.7600/1, 15:32 100:32.1K $0.7650/$0.7800. The period ended on 15:43's 100 $0.77.
15:44-15:59 began low/medium-volume $0.7600/84 (with slowly falling highs) on 15:44's 200 $0.765. The period and day ended on 15:59's 5.3K $0.7600/11 putting the close at 15:59's last trade of $0.7601 x 100 because the was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There was one AH trade of $0.7400 x 100 at 18:36. This is suspicious because it came so late, on a Friday, and was -2.64% below the closing trade. I think it says we'll again go lower.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 14 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 79,338, 28.54% of day's volume, with a $0.7456 VWAP. For the volume the count seems a tad high but the percentage of day's volume is in a normal range. Both numbers may be a bit low as there were several 4K+ trades that I strongly suspected were part of larger trades but I couldn't find even a smidgen of support for then and so excluded them.
The above show just how "choppy" the day was as VWAP bounced around a lot, along with buy percentage, in the early part of the day and the VWAP stayed relatively volatile later even as buy percentage stabilized quite a bit. The very low volume permitted much of this as I think MMs were quite active in moving price around to their benefit.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:00 26967 $0.7500 $0.7900 $20,765.91 $0.7700 9.70% 46.16%
10:19 34143 $0.7325 $0.7576 $25,406.39 $0.7441 12.28% 31.97% Incl 10:14 $0.7400 5,467
10:32 17000 $0.7320 $0.7321 $12,444.42 $0.7320 6.12% 30.03% Incl 10:26 $0.7321 4,150 10:32 $0.7320 9,900
10:48 21120 $0.7320 $0.7542 $15,691.92 $0.7430 7.60% 31.39% Incl 10:36 $0.7509 5,000 10:45 $0.7361 5,000
11:08 3000 $0.7320 $0.7366 $2,203.00 $0.7343 1.08% 31.54%
11:21 27500 $0.7322 $0.7461 $20,436.53 $0.7431 9.89% 36.46% Incl 11:14 $0.7460 10,000 11:18 $0.7461 7,000
11:21 $0.7323 5,000
11:57 62785 $0.7322 $0.7900 $47,504.40 $0.7566 22.59% 45.55% Incl 11:22 4,000 $0.7325 $0.7900
11:24 $0.7417 5,000
12:45 10505 $0.7502 $0.7503 $7,881.56 $0.7503 3.78% 46.72% Incl 12:12 $0.7503 5,000
13:41 13441 $0.7502 $0.7900 $10,274.67 $0.7644 4.84% 46.51%
14:15 9450 $0.7517 $0.7700 $7,144.30 $0.7560 3.40% 45.73%
14:45 14650 $0.7600 $0.7849 $11,157.26 $0.7616 5.27% 44.92% Incl 14:42 $0.7600 5,500
15:43 13081 $0.7600 $0.7800 $10,038.26 $0.7674 4.71% 44.45%
15:59 21439 $0.7600 $0.7684 $16,388.19 $0.7644 7.71% 44.87% Incl 15:53 $0.7669 4,321
18:36 100 $0.7400 $0.7400 $74.00 $0.7400 0.04% 44.87%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
This is the third day of predominately lower readings, with only the low breaking ranks. As choppy as today was, and it being a Friday and having a late suspicious AH trade, and having lower volume ... well, I was going to say I wouldn't guess at the next near-term move because of the lower volume suggesting no strength in the downward move, but the late trade swayed me to thinking the near-term will continue lower because that trade was so far below the closing trade's price.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.82% 0.27% -7.06% -1.61% -55.71%
Prior -4.98% -9.88% -2.69% -9.65% 85.05%
On my minimal chart today's low appears, for the second consecutive day, to be exactly sitting atop the descending support (formerly resistance) of the former consolidation triangle (orange lines), the close is further above the white line potential support/resistance at $0.75 (again, thanks to the MM) than it was yesterday. The high is continuing a steep decline since the pop, but the volume fell off substantially today. But this may be a "Friday effect", so we can't really guess if it suggests reducing strength in the move downward.
As with yesterday, I can't say if we are already beginning consolidation or not, but { I'm presuming our first leg of any consolidation will be a down leg and we don't yet know the reversal point. It might immediately bounce off the descending support or it may track lower for a while. I guess we all hope it won't break below. } So far, it's riding the line lower, but it's only two days - insufficient to establish a trend.
The fast EMA continues descending and is now barely above the slow EMA, $0.7809 vs. $0.7641. I still expect we'll see a cross below in short order.
Our price range was almost exactly centered on the former $0.75 resistance (white line) and the VWAP of $0.7537 shows this.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA stopped decreasing its rate of rise while the 10-day switched from a decreasing rate of rise to slightly increasing. The margin above the 20-day continues to increase today. If we hold here we'll get 5 more days of rising 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 15 days (was 16) of rise. If we hold here the 50 would decline 23 (days was 20), and the 200-day would again fall ~135 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had every oscillator weakened. Everything was above neutral but accumulation/distribution and Williams %R, both were below neutral.
Today again had every oscillator weakened. All are below neutral but for MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6365 and $0.8553 ($0.6326 and $0.8527 yesterday), are converging as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit, also raising the mid-point.
All in, but for the falling volume suggesting no downward strength, everything says near-term weakening is most likely. I'm still not sure if we are entering consolidation yet, but we seem to certainly have a down-leg developing, albeit somewhat slowly.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing, and the short percentage is nearer the mid-point of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately the buy percentage remains at a level suggesting near-term weakness is most likely.
The spread contracted back to that seen 2/1, offering some hope that the down move is weakening. It's still to wide to indicate consolidation is in progress, but it's not high enough to make continued strong downward moves likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fourth day, 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 12/29 is $0.0317, 4.39, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, -0.1914%, -0.2299%, -0.4513%, and -0.6887%. This trend's positive bias weakened for the third day.
All in, the suggestion of near-term weakening being most likely remains in place.
Bill
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