Monday, February 06, 2017 7:58:47 AM
Using the FS as a baseline, here are three scenarios to show PPS sensitivity to copper pricing. The analysis is very conservative.
The assumptions below include setting the company valuation at 100% of NAV (NPV for companies in development). This is a valid assumption. Goldcorp recently acquired Kaminak for C$520 million. Kaminak had an NPV of C$455, which is an acquisition at 14.3% over NPV.
Assumptions:
1. 50/50 split of debt to equity financing for the initial capex raise.
2. Company valuation to 100% of Net Asset Value (NAV).
3. Includes debt repayments (principal+interest).
4. Assumes that capital improvements for Phase II and Phase III will be fully funded from a combination of debt and revenues (no equity).
Even with these very conservative assumptions, the NPV/IRR are favorable. In the unlikely event that copper goes back to the $2/lb level, the resulting valuation shows that the Gunnison project is exceptionally profitable.
Scenarios:
1. Base Case: $2.75/lb Copper
2. Optimistic Case: $3.75/lb Copper
3. Pessimistic Case: $2.00/lb Copper
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