Friday, February 03, 2017 10:24:29 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/01 2017 EOD
I'm no longer uncertain of whether we'll start consolidating or taking a drop, near-term. I'm thinking weakening first, near-term, and maybe entering consolidation later. I expect to see us head down to those low-$0.7x levels.
Today reinforced my momo and day trader thinking by doing a big drop, over 4 cents, from the open in six more minutes and recovering very little of it until 14:30ish began the normal run up into the close. Even then we got only a bit more than half of the drop back. After that initial drop we saw typical flat, down, small up, flat, ... and finally the rise into the close.
It was also typical extremely low/no-volume for long periods with one-minute spikes moving the prices.
There were one pre-market buy at 9:10 of $0.87 x 2K.
09:30-10:21 opened the day with a 6,306 buy for $0.8735. Then came 9:31's b/a 31:2.6K $0.8731/$0.88 (bids backed by presented 12.9K $0.8500), 9:32's 138 $0.8650, 9:34's 4.7K $0.87/$0.8622/$0.85/$0.8699/$0.87/$0.85, 9:35's 4.7K $0.86/$0.8501/00, 9:36's 15.9K $0.85/4/$0.8390/00, 9:37's100 $0.83, 9:40's 840$0.8369/01/00, 9:41's b/a 12.4K:1.4K $0.8300/75, 9:42's 167 $0.83, 9:48's b/a 2.8K:2.6K $0.8310/42, 9:49's ~1K $0.8340/10, 9:51's b/a 2.5K:1.9K $0.8310/34, 9:57's b/a 5.9K:1.7K $0.8310/12, 9:57's 3.8K $0.8312/10/20/10, 9:58's b/a 1.5K:1.5K $0.8310/$0.8496, 9:58's 200 $0.8450, 10:01's 100 $0.8450, 10:02's 1.8K $0.8343 (1.1K)/10, 10:06's b/a 2.7K:2.5K $0.8310/$0.8450, 10:08's 800 $0.8311/10, 10:10's 2.9K:2.6K $0.8310/$0.845, 10:13's 8.5K $0.8310, 10:15 2K:3K $0.8310/$0.8450, 10:16's 3.6K $0.8352/10, 10:18's b/a 10:2.3K $0.8350/$0.8450 (bids backed by [presented 1.2K $0.8310), 10:20's 4.8K $0.8449 (3K)/$0.8310, and the period ended on 10:21's 200 $0.8310.
10:22-10:52, after six no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume fall from $0.8300/10 on 10:27's 100 $0.831. B/a at 10:34 was 400:4.4K $0.8310/61. 10:39's 18.4K did $0.8344/00/$0.8230/$0.8300/$0.8220, 10:40-:41's 1.1K did $0.8220, 10:43's 19.5K did $0.8220/00/21/00/01/00, 10:44's 6.5K did $0.82/$0.8169, 10:50's b/a was 700:2K $0.8169/70, 10:50's 12.4K did $0.8130 (10K)/69/50/30 and the period ended on 10:52's 8.4K $0.8130/05/30/18/30/05.
10:53-11:37, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume, with early high-volume one-minute spikes interspersed, $0.8100/$0.82 (but most highs $0.8103) on 10:54's 15.2K $0.8106/5/0/6/3/6/$0.82. B/a at 11:05 was 19.4K:2.2K $0.8100/3, 11:14 25.2K:2.5K $0.8100/03, 11:17 2.4K:1.3K $0.8103/93 (offers falling rapidly), 11:27 23.6K:2.6K $0.8100/52 (offers falling rapidly), 11:33 23/6K:1.8K $0.8100/28 (offers falling rapidly). The period ended on 11:37's 1.4K $0.8101/12/13/18.
11:38-12:30, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8101/$0.815, with converging lows and highs, on 11:39's 200 $0.8129/$0.8215. B/a at 11:45 was 200:900 $0.8219/20, 11:50 100:1.2K $0.8130/$0.8212 (offers falling rapidly), 11:56 24.4K:1,1K $0.8100/87 (offers falling rapidly), 12:02 24.4K:300 $0.8100/58, 12:17 8.8K:700 $0.8150/$0.8203. The period ended on 12:30's 100 $0.815.
12:31-14:11 began extremely (as in no trades 12:35-:56, :58-13:09, and only four odd-lot trades 13::11-14:34) low/no-volume $0.8150/$0.8298, with slowly rising lows, on 12:31's 10.8K (inl 10K $0.83 blk) $0.8150/$0.83. B/a at 12:32 was 8.9K:600 $0.8150/$0.8369, 12:47 1K:600 $0.82/$0.8369. Range at 12:57 became $0.8285/98. B/a at 13:00 was 1K:600 $0.82/$0.8369, 13:17 40:700 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 900 $0.82), 12:32 40:500 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 3.1K $0.82), 13:48 40:500 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.9K $0.82), 14:02 40:400 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.6K $0.82). The period ended on 14:11's 1 share $0.8368.
14:12-15:08 began with twenty-three no-trades minutes that had b/a at 14:18 40:400 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.6K $0.82) and b/a at 14:32 40:400 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.6K $0.82). Trade began on 14:35's 27.5K $0.82/$0.8150/63/50/00/50/00/50. B/a at 14:47 was 4K:600 $0.8107/$0.83. Trade was mostly $0.81/$0.8369 (with rising lows and falling highs) low-volume minutes with some one-minute volume spikes mixed in. The period ended on 15:08's 100 $0.83.
15:09-15:36, after 21 no-trades minutes began extremely low/no-volume $0.814/$0.83 on 15:30's 9.5K $0.814/$0.83. B/a at 15:02 was 3.9K:600 $0.8107/$0.8299, 15:17 12.4K:2.9K $0.8300/49, 15:32 3.2K:1.4K $0.8300/48. The period ended on 15:36's 400 $0.83.
15:37-16:00, after seven no-trades minutes, began the EOD price volatility with very low volume through 15:58 after doing 15:44's 26.8K $0.83/$0.855. B/a at 15:47 was 3.5K:1.7K $0.8300/99. After 15:44 range was $0.8300/53 through 15:58. The period and day ended on 15:59's 11.7K $0.83/4 (incl 10K blk)/$0.8370/00 and 16:00's 100 $0.855, up 3.01% from 15:59's last trade of $0.83.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 94,925, 27.99% of day's volume, with a $0.8286 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 11 larger trades totaling 88,619, 26.13% of day's volume, with a $0.8254 VWAP.
For the volume, the counts may be a bit larger than normal but the percentage of day's volume is in the range of "normal". Most came after the normal early-day higher prices (see below) the MMs seem so adept at causing before price takes the common dip.
Both sets have a VWAP below the day's $0.8274. This suggests more astute players were involved, possibly MMs and/or shorters along with momo and/or day traders, rather than bullish longs. If I'm right, I'd expect to see a rise in short percentage and reduction in buy percentage.
... Peeking below ... Yep and yep.
This does fit with my three-day window thesis.
There's no true investor market sentiment involved in this. None yesterday either.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Anyway, the movements of the open, high and volume tells what has already happened to the pop - it dissipated quickly.
On my minimal chart yesterday I noted a second day of higher OLHC, rising volume, and a close above the two resistance points (upper orange line and white line), which in conventional TA meant we had a confirmed break out. We also had the fast EMA continuing decisively rising and being well above the slow EMA.
I cautioned, about the Bollinger band, { However, we are "pushing" the upper limit for the second day and history suggests we will retreat from it in short order - maybe starting in a few days? } and also said the only negative is that we had a gap up open they "like to get filled" and my thinking about "three-day window" on pops would suggest coming weakness.
Today's flat low and higher close (but see notes about that above) combined with a lower open and high on substantially falling volume suggests the weakening has begun already. Adding in that we are still "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit while the low dropped and challenged the descending support (upper falling orange line, former resistance) around 14:30, before rebounding on a typical rise into the close, makes me think the weakening is quite likely to continue near-term.
Countering that, the fast EMA continues decisively rising and is still well above the slow EMA, but I don't believe that overrides the other considerations.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA decreased its rate of rise while 10-day maintained its rate and crossed above the 20-day (barely - $0.7454 vs. $0.7453). If we hold here we'll get six more days of rising(was 10) 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 19 days (was 20) of rise. If we hold here the 50 would decline 18 (days was 20), and the 200-day would fall ~135 (was 140) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic, and improvement in RSI, MFI, momentum, and ADX-related. Only accumulation/distribution was below neutral. All others were above neutral and RSI was overbought. MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic were just below overbought.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution again (relatively substantially too), MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (again, and %K fell below %D), and ADX-related. Strengthening occurred in RSI (still overbought), momentum, and Williams %R. Everything but accumulation/distribution is still above neutral.
Another oscillator added to the weakening list reinforces { fits with my thoughts that day and momo traders are here} and makes me think the likelihood of near-term weakness continuing is increased.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6321 and $0.8947 ($0.6457 and $0.8215 yesterday), continue diverging with a mildly rising mid-point. I remind though that we are again "pushing" the upper limit, which has historically resulted in a drop in range causing withdrawal from that limit.
All in, the conventional TA is less bullish and with falling volume on an "up day" (but based only on the commonly manipulated close) I expect near-term weakness is highly likely as we approach the third day of the three-day window around the pop.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions as the short percentage rose to well above my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage fell to a range that strongly suggests continued near-term weakening. This can't be good.
The spread shrunk substantially, but because it was produced by open high and substantial drop (over 4 cents) in the first seven minutes I don't think it's yet approaching suggesting we're near entering consolidation. We're not yet in a down trend but this spread is still wide enough, being produced as it was, that I think it strongly suggests more weakening right away.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the second day, 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 12/27 is $0.0726, 9.61%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, -0.1914%, -0.2299%, -0.4513%, -0.6887%, -0.9392%, -0.9818%. This trend continues positive, but weakened today. Let's hope that's not leading to another spate of negative moves - we had enough. I still think though that the positive trend was from older weakening values being dropped from the window rather than improvement in day-to-day readings in the recent readings.
All in, the short and buy percentages, combined with the spread and how it was produced, make me lees thinking consolidation and more thinking weakening near-term.
Bill
I'm no longer uncertain of whether we'll start consolidating or taking a drop, near-term. I'm thinking weakening first, near-term, and maybe entering consolidation later. I expect to see us head down to those low-$0.7x levels.
Today reinforced my momo and day trader thinking by doing a big drop, over 4 cents, from the open in six more minutes and recovering very little of it until 14:30ish began the normal run up into the close. Even then we got only a bit more than half of the drop back. After that initial drop we saw typical flat, down, small up, flat, ... and finally the rise into the close.
It was also typical extremely low/no-volume for long periods with one-minute spikes moving the prices.
There were one pre-market buy at 9:10 of $0.87 x 2K.
09:30-10:21 opened the day with a 6,306 buy for $0.8735. Then came 9:31's b/a 31:2.6K $0.8731/$0.88 (bids backed by presented 12.9K $0.8500), 9:32's 138 $0.8650, 9:34's 4.7K $0.87/$0.8622/$0.85/$0.8699/$0.87/$0.85, 9:35's 4.7K $0.86/$0.8501/00, 9:36's 15.9K $0.85/4/$0.8390/00, 9:37's100 $0.83, 9:40's 840$0.8369/01/00, 9:41's b/a 12.4K:1.4K $0.8300/75, 9:42's 167 $0.83, 9:48's b/a 2.8K:2.6K $0.8310/42, 9:49's ~1K $0.8340/10, 9:51's b/a 2.5K:1.9K $0.8310/34, 9:57's b/a 5.9K:1.7K $0.8310/12, 9:57's 3.8K $0.8312/10/20/10, 9:58's b/a 1.5K:1.5K $0.8310/$0.8496, 9:58's 200 $0.8450, 10:01's 100 $0.8450, 10:02's 1.8K $0.8343 (1.1K)/10, 10:06's b/a 2.7K:2.5K $0.8310/$0.8450, 10:08's 800 $0.8311/10, 10:10's 2.9K:2.6K $0.8310/$0.845, 10:13's 8.5K $0.8310, 10:15 2K:3K $0.8310/$0.8450, 10:16's 3.6K $0.8352/10, 10:18's b/a 10:2.3K $0.8350/$0.8450 (bids backed by [presented 1.2K $0.8310), 10:20's 4.8K $0.8449 (3K)/$0.8310, and the period ended on 10:21's 200 $0.8310.
10:22-10:52, after six no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume fall from $0.8300/10 on 10:27's 100 $0.831. B/a at 10:34 was 400:4.4K $0.8310/61. 10:39's 18.4K did $0.8344/00/$0.8230/$0.8300/$0.8220, 10:40-:41's 1.1K did $0.8220, 10:43's 19.5K did $0.8220/00/21/00/01/00, 10:44's 6.5K did $0.82/$0.8169, 10:50's b/a was 700:2K $0.8169/70, 10:50's 12.4K did $0.8130 (10K)/69/50/30 and the period ended on 10:52's 8.4K $0.8130/05/30/18/30/05.
10:53-11:37, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume, with early high-volume one-minute spikes interspersed, $0.8100/$0.82 (but most highs $0.8103) on 10:54's 15.2K $0.8106/5/0/6/3/6/$0.82. B/a at 11:05 was 19.4K:2.2K $0.8100/3, 11:14 25.2K:2.5K $0.8100/03, 11:17 2.4K:1.3K $0.8103/93 (offers falling rapidly), 11:27 23.6K:2.6K $0.8100/52 (offers falling rapidly), 11:33 23/6K:1.8K $0.8100/28 (offers falling rapidly). The period ended on 11:37's 1.4K $0.8101/12/13/18.
11:38-12:30, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8101/$0.815, with converging lows and highs, on 11:39's 200 $0.8129/$0.8215. B/a at 11:45 was 200:900 $0.8219/20, 11:50 100:1.2K $0.8130/$0.8212 (offers falling rapidly), 11:56 24.4K:1,1K $0.8100/87 (offers falling rapidly), 12:02 24.4K:300 $0.8100/58, 12:17 8.8K:700 $0.8150/$0.8203. The period ended on 12:30's 100 $0.815.
12:31-14:11 began extremely (as in no trades 12:35-:56, :58-13:09, and only four odd-lot trades 13::11-14:34) low/no-volume $0.8150/$0.8298, with slowly rising lows, on 12:31's 10.8K (inl 10K $0.83 blk) $0.8150/$0.83. B/a at 12:32 was 8.9K:600 $0.8150/$0.8369, 12:47 1K:600 $0.82/$0.8369. Range at 12:57 became $0.8285/98. B/a at 13:00 was 1K:600 $0.82/$0.8369, 13:17 40:700 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 900 $0.82), 12:32 40:500 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 3.1K $0.82), 13:48 40:500 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.9K $0.82), 14:02 40:400 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.6K $0.82). The period ended on 14:11's 1 share $0.8368.
14:12-15:08 began with twenty-three no-trades minutes that had b/a at 14:18 40:400 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.6K $0.82) and b/a at 14:32 40:400 $0.8280/$0.8368 (bid backed by presented 2.6K $0.82). Trade began on 14:35's 27.5K $0.82/$0.8150/63/50/00/50/00/50. B/a at 14:47 was 4K:600 $0.8107/$0.83. Trade was mostly $0.81/$0.8369 (with rising lows and falling highs) low-volume minutes with some one-minute volume spikes mixed in. The period ended on 15:08's 100 $0.83.
15:09-15:36, after 21 no-trades minutes began extremely low/no-volume $0.814/$0.83 on 15:30's 9.5K $0.814/$0.83. B/a at 15:02 was 3.9K:600 $0.8107/$0.8299, 15:17 12.4K:2.9K $0.8300/49, 15:32 3.2K:1.4K $0.8300/48. The period ended on 15:36's 400 $0.83.
15:37-16:00, after seven no-trades minutes, began the EOD price volatility with very low volume through 15:58 after doing 15:44's 26.8K $0.83/$0.855. B/a at 15:47 was 3.5K:1.7K $0.8300/99. After 15:44 range was $0.8300/53 through 15:58. The period and day ended on 15:59's 11.7K $0.83/4 (incl 10K blk)/$0.8370/00 and 16:00's 100 $0.855, up 3.01% from 15:59's last trade of $0.83.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 94,925, 27.99% of day's volume, with a $0.8286 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 11 larger trades totaling 88,619, 26.13% of day's volume, with a $0.8254 VWAP.
For the volume, the counts may be a bit larger than normal but the percentage of day's volume is in the range of "normal". Most came after the normal early-day higher prices (see below) the MMs seem so adept at causing before price takes the common dip.
Both sets have a VWAP below the day's $0.8274. This suggests more astute players were involved, possibly MMs and/or shorters along with momo and/or day traders, rather than bullish longs. If I'm right, I'd expect to see a rise in short percentage and reduction in buy percentage.
... Peeking below ... Yep and yep.
This does fit with my three-day window thesis.
Notice how the highest VWAP period in the early part of the session has the lowest buy percentage? Notice the trend of VWAP remaining low has a rising buy percentage. Given I believe there's very little real long-term market sentiment for this symbol, that behavior tells me that the buy percentage improvement is nothing more than traders who shorted doing covering buys without any pressure. Likely some MMs also doing covering buys.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:21 61465 $0.8300 $0.8735 $52,002.56 $0.8461 18.12% 18.11% Incl 09:30 $0.8735 6,306
10:52 90392 $0.8105 $0.8344 $74,181.69 $0.8207 26.65% 17.38% Incl 10:43 5,890 $0.8220 $0.8221
10:50 $0.8130 10,000
11:37 44393 $0.8100 $0.8201 $36,031.35 $0.8116 13.09% 27.10% Incl 10:54 $0.8106 8,000
12:30 11000 $0.8126 $0.8220 $9,007.05 $0.8188 3.24% 29.58%
14:11 11501 $0.8150 $0.8368 $9,527.66 $0.8284 3.39% 32.68% Incl 12:31 $0.8300 10,000
15:08 58586 $0.8100 $0.8369 $48,050.97 $0.8202 17.27% 33.10% Incl 14:35 $0.8100 9,960 $0.8150 8,171
14:55 $0.8299 5,400 6,100
15:36 12100 $0.8140 $0.8300 $10,022.96 $0.8283 3.57% 33.06%
16:00 46954 $0.8300 $0.8550 $39,504.80 $0.8414 13.84% 39.56% Incl 15:44 $0.8550 9,208 15:59 $0.8400 10,000
There's no true investor market sentiment involved in this. None yesterday either.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
N.B. Don't be fooled by the close. The close was $0.855 x 100, up 3.01% from 15:59's last trade of $0.83. This is just another MM manipulation to suck in the traders and unwary. Also, the open of $0.8735 occurred only at the open and the only other trades at >= $0.87 totaled only 2.7K shares.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -6.08% 0.00% -6.08% 1.88% -67.73%
Prior 23.18% 8.00% 13.41% 4.90% 24.09%
Anyway, the movements of the open, high and volume tells what has already happened to the pop - it dissipated quickly.
On my minimal chart yesterday I noted a second day of higher OLHC, rising volume, and a close above the two resistance points (upper orange line and white line), which in conventional TA meant we had a confirmed break out. We also had the fast EMA continuing decisively rising and being well above the slow EMA.
I cautioned, about the Bollinger band, { However, we are "pushing" the upper limit for the second day and history suggests we will retreat from it in short order - maybe starting in a few days? } and also said the only negative is that we had a gap up open they "like to get filled" and my thinking about "three-day window" on pops would suggest coming weakness.
Today's flat low and higher close (but see notes about that above) combined with a lower open and high on substantially falling volume suggests the weakening has begun already. Adding in that we are still "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit while the low dropped and challenged the descending support (upper falling orange line, former resistance) around 14:30, before rebounding on a typical rise into the close, makes me think the weakening is quite likely to continue near-term.
Countering that, the fast EMA continues decisively rising and is still well above the slow EMA, but I don't believe that overrides the other considerations.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA decreased its rate of rise while 10-day maintained its rate and crossed above the 20-day (barely - $0.7454 vs. $0.7453). If we hold here we'll get six more days of rising(was 10) 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 19 days (was 20) of rise. If we hold here the 50 would decline 18 (days was 20), and the 200-day would fall ~135 (was 140) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic, and improvement in RSI, MFI, momentum, and ADX-related. Only accumulation/distribution was below neutral. All others were above neutral and RSI was overbought. MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic were just below overbought.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution again (relatively substantially too), MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (again, and %K fell below %D), and ADX-related. Strengthening occurred in RSI (still overbought), momentum, and Williams %R. Everything but accumulation/distribution is still above neutral.
Another oscillator added to the weakening list reinforces { fits with my thoughts that day and momo traders are here} and makes me think the likelihood of near-term weakness continuing is increased.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6321 and $0.8947 ($0.6457 and $0.8215 yesterday), continue diverging with a mildly rising mid-point. I remind though that we are again "pushing" the upper limit, which has historically resulted in a drop in range causing withdrawal from that limit.
All in, the conventional TA is less bullish and with falling volume on an "up day" (but based only on the commonly manipulated close) I expect near-term weakness is highly likely as we approach the third day of the three-day window around the pop.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions as the short percentage rose to well above my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage fell to a range that strongly suggests continued near-term weakening. This can't be good.
The spread shrunk substantially, but because it was produced by open high and substantial drop (over 4 cents) in the first seven minutes I don't think it's yet approaching suggesting we're near entering consolidation. We're not yet in a down trend but this spread is still wide enough, being produced as it was, that I think it strongly suggests more weakening right away.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the second day, 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 12/27 is $0.0726, 9.61%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4414%, 0.4984%, 0.1740%, -0.1914%, -0.2299%, -0.4513%, -0.6887%, -0.9392%, -0.9818%. This trend continues positive, but weakened today. Let's hope that's not leading to another spate of negative moves - we had enough. I still think though that the positive trend was from older weakening values being dropped from the window rather than improvement in day-to-day readings in the recent readings.
All in, the short and buy percentages, combined with the spread and how it was produced, make me lees thinking consolidation and more thinking weakening near-term.
Bill
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