Bioelectronics Corp (BIEL)

[Det_Robert_Thorne]

Real possibility of 2016 revenue decline from 2015

There's also the very real possibility of BIEL reporting lower 2016 revenues compared to 2015, despite being in more stores.

BIEL has seen declining Year-over-Year revenue growth (one quarter against the same quarter of a year earlier) in 2016.

1Q/16 grew 4.9% from 1Q/15
2Q/16 grew 2.1% from 2Q/15
3Q/16 declined 5.5% from 3Q/15

For the first nine months of 2016, BIEL's revenue was up only 0.7% from the same period in 2015.

BIEL will have to have sold more than $649K in 4Q/16 to equal the $2.34M revenue of 2015, but that $649K would be a 1.8% decline from 4Q/15.

Based on the lack of news, the discounting that was mentioned on this board a couple of weeks ago, and BEIL's restarting of the free trials program for Actipatch, I suspect that sales in the 4Q/16 were lower than the same quarter in 2015.

I'm hedging a bit, however, and forcasting that 4Q/16 revenues were the same as 4Q/15, +/- 3%. That would put revenue in the range of $641K - $681K. For the year, 2016 revenues would run in a range of a decline of -0.4% to an increase of 1.3%.

If revenues are lower than $641K (remember, 3Q/16 was 5% lower than 3Q/15,) then IMO, that would be a horrible year for BIEL, and if over $681K, I'll have to look again at my forecasting model.