And it is very likely that you are right, that the longer we're waiting on the futility analysis the better chance we have of a positive outcome.
I was merely making the point that even if the FA was done a week from now for example....because 125 MACE had occurred, that so long as the vast majority are in the non-dosed placebo arm, then it should be all systems go if there are no safety or other concerns.
I know the BETonMACE trial is enrolling individuals who have a high risk of a Major Adverse Cardiac Event....and I also know they're targeting Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) not risk elimination. So it would be unrealistic to even hope that the dosed group would have 0 MAC events. But obviously that would be an incredible result, if nobody in the dosed group had a MAC event....
It kind of sucks in a way though....those who are dosed with the placebo...the best result for a positive outcome of the trial is if those in the control arm suffer the MAC events. I don't wish a heart attack or stroke on anyone obviously.
If you want to taste the fruit, you have to go out on a limb. But if you wait for the herd to move out on the limb....the branch tends to snap.
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