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Re: Guido2 post# 381918

Friday, 01/27/2017 7:57:35 PM

Friday, January 27, 2017 7:57:35 PM

Post# of 793286
Looks like some smart, rich people read HR 491 and realize that this bill if passed, as written, would immediately 1) get rid of the NWS, 2) get rid of Treasury's option to acquire 80% of the two corporations, 3) provide the corporations with working capital and 4) help Mnuchin keep his promise to work with Congress. I am surprised the commons did not jump 100%.

What benefits accrue to shareholders with this bill?

The text of Capuano's new bill, H.R. 491 is almost precisely the same as the "Let the GSEs Pay Us Back Act of 2015."

See comparison - https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr1036/text#compare=348095:ih

A similar bill was proposed in 2013. Take a look at a close comparison between the 2013 and 2015 bills. Not much difference. No work put into updating the bill over the past three plus years.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr1036/text#compare=293554:ih

The 2013 and 2015 version of essentially the same bill introduced on June, 19, 2013 and February 24, 2015 respectively, did not make it out of the House Finance Services committee. What chances will this bill introduced on the January 12, 2017 have in the 115th Congress House Finance Services committee?

Essentially, the Capuano 2015 bill modifies the SPSPAs, ends the net worth sweep, and turns the US Treasury stock investment with dividends into a series of loans with principal calculated by total drawn per year, made before after the modification, at a 5% interest rate to be paid on a unspecified amortization schedule with a 30 year maturity term. Already paid in dividends are treated retroactively as principal and interest paid.

Considering that total draws and total dividends paid are known, what would the loans look like today? That is the first consideration to determine the value of the bill. We cannot know what the amortization schedule will be, but we can go through the motions to calculate principal and interest payment at 5%.

Here are all the draws and dividends. Someone can kindly do the calculations.

Draws Made
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Market-Data/Table_1.pdf

Dividends Paid
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Market-Data/Table_2.pdf

Finally, the bill does not consider specifically, prepayment, overpayment, accounting changes to be made, the conservatorship, terminating the conservatorship, warrant disposition and the other aspects of the SPSPAs, shareholders' equity, which under this scenario alters notions of takings and APA violations, the ongoing court cases, etc. These are not taken into any consideration. The bill is a piecemeal approach that does not fully relieve shareholders equity concerns or the future status of the GSEs.

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