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Saturday, 01/21/2017 9:42:51 AM

Saturday, January 21, 2017 9:42:51 AM

Post# of 76351
S&P 500 Index Cash
By Martin Armstrong

* January 21, 2017

Analysis for the Week of January 23, 2017

We should see a trend change come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 227753 and so far we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 227753 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. As of the close of Fri. Jan. 20, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now. S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 227131 and is trading up about 1.45% for the year from last year's closing of 223883. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Jan. 19, 2017, but the key low was made 6 days ago on Thu. Jan. 12, 2017 at 225425.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 2nd at 228210, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks from the high of the week of January 2nd, which has been a move of 1.03% percent in a stark panic type decline. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 2nd has exceeded the previous high of 217999 made back during the week of September 19th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 208379 made the week of October 31st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains in a bearish mode right now warranting caution. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in February 2016.

The market is trading sharply some 6.39% percent above the last high 213472 from which we did originally obtain two sell signals from that event established during May 2015. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 177044 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. From the May 2015, this market declined into a low during February 2016 at 181010. Right now, the market has rallied from that low and is breaking out to the upside. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well. From the low of February 2016, we have elected four buy signals. This warns that the trend is robust moving forward.



Expansively, my far-reaching view recognizes that the current trend is strong since the last important low established last February 2016, the market has rallied for the past 10 months and we have exceeded last month's high. Furthermore, the S&P 500 Cash Index remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 227753 and 181010. Resistance conspicuously stands at last year's high of 227753. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 227753 major high established back in 2016.

On the subject of the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of January 9th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 227753. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 1/16 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 11 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 228210, which was created during the week of January 2nd. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 227753, which was created during December 2016.



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