Friday, January 20, 2017 1:41:33 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/19 2017 EOD
There's some glimmer of hope in the conventional TA that my $0.70 "pause", and maybe reversal point, is indeed a support point and should therefore generate a reversal. Not yet though I think. The intra-day behavior and my unconventional stuff below don't yet suggest this, although some improvement has occurred.
The intra-day behavior was the same old open high, go higher, flat, down, flat, down, ... rise slightly into the close. All was extremely low/no-volume with some short high-volume moments.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:10 opened the day with a 2,116 buy for $0.7250, two sells at $0.7070 x 100 x 100, and an odd-lot $0.725 x 70. The came 9:32's b/a 5K:312 $0.7070/$0.7399, 9:34's 200 $0.7350, 9:36's 1.4K $0.7391, 9:38's b/a 5K:236 $0.7010/$0.7390, 9:39's 2.7K $0.7309/10, 9:43's 100 $0.7399, 9:44's b/a 5.4K:39 $0.7070/$0.7390 (offers backed by presented 106 $0.7399), 9:48's ~1.5K $0.7380, 9:49's 100 $0.7070, 9:50's 100 $0.7070, 9:51's 100 $0.7070, 9:52's b/a 10.3K:900 $0.7070/$0.7396, 9:55's 100 $0.7299, 9:57's b/a 5K $0.7080:100 $0.7080/$0.73, 10:04's 100 $0.7102, 10:06's $0.7102, 10:06's b/a 100:1.4K $0.7102/$0.73, 10:07's 100 $0.7110, 10:10's b/a 500:1.1K $0.7102/$0.73. The period ended on 10:10's 100 $0.7110.
10:11-11:04, after sixteen no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7111/$0.7198, with falling highs, on 10:27's 100 $0.7198. B/a at 10:27 was 400:1.8K $0.7102/98, 10:33 5K:1.3K $0.7000/67 (offers falling rapidly). Volume was interrupted by 10:33's 23.4K $0.7102/10/02/08/$0.7080/70/$0.7107/$0.7070/00. B/a at 10:43 was 9.2K:1.3K $0.7000/46 (offers being jiggled down), 10:47 9.1K:600 $0.7000/31, 10:50 9K:1.1K $0.7000/18, 10:54 9.3K:500 $0.7000/03. At 10:56 b/a became 9.2K:500 $0.7000/1 and range of trading became $0.7000/1. The period ended on 11:04's 3.5K $0.70.
11:05-11:50, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6909/$0.6994, with a slowly rising range, on 11:06's 12.4K $0.70/$0.6909/$0.70 and 11:07's 5.3K $0.6998/09. B/a at 11:11 was 200:900 $0.6909/$0.7001. At 11:16 range had moved to $0.7000/1. Range moved at 11:31 to $0.7000/57 (most 100-share pecking the bid $0.70). B/a at 11:33 was 1K:2.5K $0.7000/57, 11:47 200:1.5K $0.7000/54. The period ended on 11:50's 100 $0.70.
11:51-12:55, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6910/82 (most one-minute 100/200-share trades) on 11:52's 100 $0.6910. B/a at 11:55 was 1.2K:1.3K $0.6910/$0.7053. Volume was interrupted by 12:06's 5.2K $0.7013/53 and range went to $0.6911/82. B/a at 12:08 was 400:1.2K $0.6911/$0.7053, 12:18 200:1.2K $0.6911/$0.7053. At 12:25 range went to 6975/$0.70 (and one $0.7042 trade). B/a at 12:32 was 3.9K:2.1K $0.6975/$0.7036 (offers being jiggled), 12:47 was 3.1K:200 $0.6975/99. Volume was interrupted by 12:46-:47's 20.1K $0.6975/85/95/96/70/$0.6999/$0.70 (14K blk). B/a at 12:50 500:800 $0.6980/$0.7005. The period ended on 12:55's150 $0.6992.
12:56-13:54 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7000/5 on 12:56's 1.7K $0.7004. B/a at 13:02 was 1K:400 $0.7000/8, 13:17 800:1.2K $0.7000/4, 13:32 1K:900 $0.7000/3, 13:48 800:700 $0.7000/2. The period ended on 13:54's 200 $0.70.
13:55-14:18 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6980/1 (most 80) on 13:55's 9.2K $0.70 and 13:56's 5.5K $0.6980/94/90/94/91/94/3. B/a at 13:59 was 500:800 $0.6980/9, 14:03 600:300 $0.6980/1, 14:17 400:1K $0.6980/1. The period ended on 14:18's 901 $0.6980.
14:19-15:21 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6975/76 on 14:19's 100 $0.6975. B/a at 14:30 was 2.5K:700 $0.6975/6, 14:47 2K:900 $0.6975/6, 15:02 1.4K:1.7K $0.6975/6, 15:17 1K:1.6K $0.6975/6. The period ended on 15:21's 100 $0.6975.
15:22-15:59, after one no-trades minute, began low-volume EOD volatility, ranging from $0.7000/69 to $0.6975/$0.7069, on 15:23's 3.7K $0.6976/5/6/7/6/$0.70. B/a at 15:32 was 7.6K:1.2K $0.7000/68, 15:45 2.6K:2K $0.6990/$0.7046, 15:47 2.2K:2.7K $0.6990/$0.7045, 15:55 1.5K:7 $0.6990/$0.7001 (backed by presented 1K $0.7042), 15:57 4.7K:200 $0.7000/45 (offers being jiggled 44/45). The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.1K $0.7045 (500)/00 (600) with the official close $0.70 because the was no normal MM closing trade.
There was one AH trade at 17:21:58 of 1K for $0.74, 5.71% above the close. It's both larger and earlier than I would think for a sneaky manipulative trade but I do wonder who would trade almost 6% above the close.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 47,000, 30.61% of day's volume, with a $0.7023 VWAP. For the day's trade volume, the count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is a bit high. That's due to one "larger larger trade". If that was 5K the percentage would be 24.75%, right in the normal range. Considering its pricing, there's no intelligence to be gleaned from it other than it likely was an inter/intra-broker trade.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, after confessing my sins, I said { All this makes me think the $0.70 pause will not be a reversal point and $0.66 will be the next potential stop. Recall that potential support is as yet untested.
However, considering that I'm often, and recently, wrong, don't be surprised if it turns out I was just a day early!
}
Looks like I'm still waiting to see if the "not be a reversal point" but got the pause point of $0.70 right, with yesterday's low right there and today's close right there. With volume down 60% there's a good chance I'll be wrong about not reversing, near-term, which I really don't mind since $0.70 was just a SWAG anyway. There were no TA indications that $0.70 should be significant.
The fast EMA continued to move lower, along with the slow EMA.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit continued descending and the upper limit stopped descending and made a small rise. The mid-point is still moving lower due to the lower limit's faster rate of change. Trading range is almost completely below the mid-point.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs are all falling. If we hold here we'll get ten more days of 10-day SMA, seven more days of 20-day decline before a pause and then continuous descent. The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 50 would decline again 37 more days and the 200 maybe 190 days (visual estimate).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had all but momentum weakened, with momentum marginally strengthened. Nothing was oversold, although several were just a smidgen above that condition. I noted { Sans a recovery all are likely to become so }.
Today every oscillator weakened, all are below neutral, Williams %R and full stochastic are oversold, and RSI and MFI (untrusted by me) are barely above that.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6947 and $0.7865 ($0.6888 and $0.7849 yesterday), switched from slightly diverging to converging. The mid-point is now rising, but only slightly thus far.
All in, nothing suggests an upward move yet. The combination of oscillators, volume and range movement do suggest that my $0.70 "pause" may in fact be a support point, in which case we may see a reversal.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good and too long in returning, and the short percentage is in the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage moved to a range that allows for appreciation and usually doesn't get followed quickly by depreciation. That's a nice change to the plus side.
The spread expanded, but only marginally, suggesting that the descent may be over near-term. It was produced by the same old behavior - open high, go higher and then a combination of flats and drops. But the slowing rate of expansion of the spread suggests that even though we are in a down trend we may have, or very soon will have, bottomed. Combined with my anticipated pause, and maybe reversal at, $0.70, I'm near-term hopeful, not to be confused with optimistic yet.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held at 18 negatives and 6 positives for the second day. Change since 12/13 is -$0.2134, -23.28%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0628%, -1.0902%, -1.0431%, -1.0029%, -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, and -0.6975%. We broke the bad consistent trend going on these.
All in, we see the first early signs that the near-term negative bias is dissipating. We can't say that will continue but we can say it's is looking more like the $0.70 pause, and potential support, may turn out, for the near-term, to be support and result in at least a near-term reversal within the consolidation, deferring the test of $0.66.
Bill
There's some glimmer of hope in the conventional TA that my $0.70 "pause", and maybe reversal point, is indeed a support point and should therefore generate a reversal. Not yet though I think. The intra-day behavior and my unconventional stuff below don't yet suggest this, although some improvement has occurred.
The intra-day behavior was the same old open high, go higher, flat, down, flat, down, ... rise slightly into the close. All was extremely low/no-volume with some short high-volume moments.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:10 opened the day with a 2,116 buy for $0.7250, two sells at $0.7070 x 100 x 100, and an odd-lot $0.725 x 70. The came 9:32's b/a 5K:312 $0.7070/$0.7399, 9:34's 200 $0.7350, 9:36's 1.4K $0.7391, 9:38's b/a 5K:236 $0.7010/$0.7390, 9:39's 2.7K $0.7309/10, 9:43's 100 $0.7399, 9:44's b/a 5.4K:39 $0.7070/$0.7390 (offers backed by presented 106 $0.7399), 9:48's ~1.5K $0.7380, 9:49's 100 $0.7070, 9:50's 100 $0.7070, 9:51's 100 $0.7070, 9:52's b/a 10.3K:900 $0.7070/$0.7396, 9:55's 100 $0.7299, 9:57's b/a 5K $0.7080:100 $0.7080/$0.73, 10:04's 100 $0.7102, 10:06's $0.7102, 10:06's b/a 100:1.4K $0.7102/$0.73, 10:07's 100 $0.7110, 10:10's b/a 500:1.1K $0.7102/$0.73. The period ended on 10:10's 100 $0.7110.
10:11-11:04, after sixteen no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7111/$0.7198, with falling highs, on 10:27's 100 $0.7198. B/a at 10:27 was 400:1.8K $0.7102/98, 10:33 5K:1.3K $0.7000/67 (offers falling rapidly). Volume was interrupted by 10:33's 23.4K $0.7102/10/02/08/$0.7080/70/$0.7107/$0.7070/00. B/a at 10:43 was 9.2K:1.3K $0.7000/46 (offers being jiggled down), 10:47 9.1K:600 $0.7000/31, 10:50 9K:1.1K $0.7000/18, 10:54 9.3K:500 $0.7000/03. At 10:56 b/a became 9.2K:500 $0.7000/1 and range of trading became $0.7000/1. The period ended on 11:04's 3.5K $0.70.
11:05-11:50, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6909/$0.6994, with a slowly rising range, on 11:06's 12.4K $0.70/$0.6909/$0.70 and 11:07's 5.3K $0.6998/09. B/a at 11:11 was 200:900 $0.6909/$0.7001. At 11:16 range had moved to $0.7000/1. Range moved at 11:31 to $0.7000/57 (most 100-share pecking the bid $0.70). B/a at 11:33 was 1K:2.5K $0.7000/57, 11:47 200:1.5K $0.7000/54. The period ended on 11:50's 100 $0.70.
11:51-12:55, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6910/82 (most one-minute 100/200-share trades) on 11:52's 100 $0.6910. B/a at 11:55 was 1.2K:1.3K $0.6910/$0.7053. Volume was interrupted by 12:06's 5.2K $0.7013/53 and range went to $0.6911/82. B/a at 12:08 was 400:1.2K $0.6911/$0.7053, 12:18 200:1.2K $0.6911/$0.7053. At 12:25 range went to 6975/$0.70 (and one $0.7042 trade). B/a at 12:32 was 3.9K:2.1K $0.6975/$0.7036 (offers being jiggled), 12:47 was 3.1K:200 $0.6975/99. Volume was interrupted by 12:46-:47's 20.1K $0.6975/85/95/96/70/$0.6999/$0.70 (14K blk). B/a at 12:50 500:800 $0.6980/$0.7005. The period ended on 12:55's150 $0.6992.
12:56-13:54 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7000/5 on 12:56's 1.7K $0.7004. B/a at 13:02 was 1K:400 $0.7000/8, 13:17 800:1.2K $0.7000/4, 13:32 1K:900 $0.7000/3, 13:48 800:700 $0.7000/2. The period ended on 13:54's 200 $0.70.
13:55-14:18 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6980/1 (most 80) on 13:55's 9.2K $0.70 and 13:56's 5.5K $0.6980/94/90/94/91/94/3. B/a at 13:59 was 500:800 $0.6980/9, 14:03 600:300 $0.6980/1, 14:17 400:1K $0.6980/1. The period ended on 14:18's 901 $0.6980.
14:19-15:21 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6975/76 on 14:19's 100 $0.6975. B/a at 14:30 was 2.5K:700 $0.6975/6, 14:47 2K:900 $0.6975/6, 15:02 1.4K:1.7K $0.6975/6, 15:17 1K:1.6K $0.6975/6. The period ended on 15:21's 100 $0.6975.
15:22-15:59, after one no-trades minute, began low-volume EOD volatility, ranging from $0.7000/69 to $0.6975/$0.7069, on 15:23's 3.7K $0.6976/5/6/7/6/$0.70. B/a at 15:32 was 7.6K:1.2K $0.7000/68, 15:45 2.6K:2K $0.6990/$0.7046, 15:47 2.2K:2.7K $0.6990/$0.7045, 15:55 1.5K:7 $0.6990/$0.7001 (backed by presented 1K $0.7042), 15:57 4.7K:200 $0.7000/45 (offers being jiggled 44/45). The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.1K $0.7045 (500)/00 (600) with the official close $0.70 because the was no normal MM closing trade.
There was one AH trade at 17:21:58 of 1K for $0.74, 5.71% above the close. It's both larger and earlier than I would think for a sneaky manipulative trade but I do wonder who would trade almost 6% above the close.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 47,000, 30.61% of day's volume, with a $0.7023 VWAP. For the day's trade volume, the count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is a bit high. That's due to one "larger larger trade". If that was 5K the percentage would be 24.75%, right in the normal range. Considering its pricing, there's no intelligence to be gleaned from it other than it likely was an inter/intra-broker trade.
It's hard to imagine a more stable VWAP day after 10:10. The good news, I think, is once I check my table below I'll see a VWAP right at $0.70+ (Yep. Checked and see $0.7032), meaning we did indeed get a "pause" at my hoped-for level and we may not see price saunter on down to $0.66 in the near-term. Of course, sans fundamentals improvement from the company and/or a positive PR catalyst, we are still likely to get there, but it will take maybe a bit longer.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:10 10480 $0.7010 $0.7399 $7,630.03 $0.7281 6.83% 88.88%
11:04 33465 $0.7000 $0.7198 $23,622.85 $0.7059 21.80% 27.99% Incl 10:33 $0.7070 5,000 5,000 $0.7080 5,000
11:50 22965 $0.6905 $0.7058 $16,054.57 $0.6991 14.96% 36.46% Incl 11:06 $0.7000 5,000
12:55 30250 $0.6910 $0.7053 $21,164.34 $0.6996 19.70% 49.84% Incl 12:47 $0.7000 14,000
13:54 9200 $0.7000 $0.7005 $6,441.84 $0.7002 5.99% 48.73% Incl 13:55 $0.7000 8,200
14:18 17500 $0.6980 $0.7000 $12,240.36 $0.6994 11.40% 53.11%
15:21 4880 $0.6975 $0.6980 $3,404.09 $0.6976 3.18% 52.01%
15:59 22602 $0.6975 $0.7069 $15,823.04 $0.7001 14.72% 47.54% Incl 15:37 $0.7000 4,800
17:21 1000 $0.7400 $0.7400 $740.00 $0.7400 0.65% 47.88%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Typical results of a typical open higher, sideways briefly, then dump and go flat until we get a weak rise into the close.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.69% -1.43% -1.29% -4.11% -60.09%
Prior -4.00% -1.34% -2.64% 1.67% 40.90%
On my minimal chart, after confessing my sins, I said { All this makes me think the $0.70 pause will not be a reversal point and $0.66 will be the next potential stop. Recall that potential support is as yet untested.
However, considering that I'm often, and recently, wrong, don't be surprised if it turns out I was just a day early!
} Looks like I'm still waiting to see if the "not be a reversal point" but got the pause point of $0.70 right, with yesterday's low right there and today's close right there. With volume down 60% there's a good chance I'll be wrong about not reversing, near-term, which I really don't mind since $0.70 was just a SWAG anyway. There were no TA indications that $0.70 should be significant.
The fast EMA continued to move lower, along with the slow EMA.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit continued descending and the upper limit stopped descending and made a small rise. The mid-point is still moving lower due to the lower limit's faster rate of change. Trading range is almost completely below the mid-point.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs are all falling. If we hold here we'll get ten more days of 10-day SMA, seven more days of 20-day decline before a pause and then continuous descent. The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 50 would decline again 37 more days and the 200 maybe 190 days (visual estimate).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had all but momentum weakened, with momentum marginally strengthened. Nothing was oversold, although several were just a smidgen above that condition. I noted { Sans a recovery all are likely to become so }.
Today every oscillator weakened, all are below neutral, Williams %R and full stochastic are oversold, and RSI and MFI (untrusted by me) are barely above that.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6947 and $0.7865 ($0.6888 and $0.7849 yesterday), switched from slightly diverging to converging. The mid-point is now rising, but only slightly thus far.
All in, nothing suggests an upward move yet. The combination of oscillators, volume and range movement do suggest that my $0.70 "pause" may in fact be a support point, in which case we may see a reversal.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good and too long in returning, and the short percentage is in the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage moved to a range that allows for appreciation and usually doesn't get followed quickly by depreciation. That's a nice change to the plus side.
The spread expanded, but only marginally, suggesting that the descent may be over near-term. It was produced by the same old behavior - open high, go higher and then a combination of flats and drops. But the slowing rate of expansion of the spread suggests that even though we are in a down trend we may have, or very soon will have, bottomed. Combined with my anticipated pause, and maybe reversal at, $0.70, I'm near-term hopeful, not to be confused with optimistic yet.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held at 18 negatives and 6 positives for the second day. Change since 12/13 is -$0.2134, -23.28%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0628%, -1.0902%, -1.0431%, -1.0029%, -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, and -0.6975%. We broke the bad consistent trend going on these.
All in, we see the first early signs that the near-term negative bias is dissipating. We can't say that will continue but we can say it's is looking more like the $0.70 pause, and potential support, may turn out, for the near-term, to be support and result in at least a near-term reversal within the consolidation, deferring the test of $0.66.
Bill
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