AI
Thursday, January 19, 2017 9:28:12 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/18 2017 EOD
I'm holding at consolidating with a negative bias. We did pause at my hoped-for $0.70 (we got $0.7005) point. The possibility exists that we reverse from here, but nothing else but low short and buy percentages and narrowing spread in my unconventional stuff supports this. Those are not strongly suggesting that - everything is just marginally suggesting the possibility.
All the conventional TA says otherwise.
Today was a typical open high, go higher, flat for a while and then a rapid fall, flat, fall more, flat, and finally do a weak rise into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 200:20 $0.7160/$0.7336 (offers backed by presented $0.75 x 50, $0.75 x 48 and $0.7675 x 6.8K0.
09:30-11:08 opened the day with a 721 sell for $0.72. Then came 9:37's 8.2K $0.7497 (2.5K)/$0.7180/91/80/$0.7497 (5K)/$0.7180, 9:42's b/a 200:100 $0.7180/$0.7497, 9:48's 300 $0.7250, 9:51's 100 $0.7250, 9:52's b/a 300:100 $0.7250/$0.74, 9:59's 100 $0.74, 10:00's b/a 300:100 $0.7250/$0.74, 10:00's 100 $0.74, 10:03's 100 $0.74, 10:07's 100 $0.7250, 10:10's b/a 300:400 $0.7250/$0.74, 10:17's 200 $0.74, 10:19's b/a 400:2.2K $0.7250/$0.74, 10:30's 200 $0.74, 10:37's 100 $0.7250, 10:38's b/a 400:6.9K $0.7250/$0.74, 10:45's 700 $0.74/$0.7392 (500), 10:46's 100 $0.7250, 10:50's 100 $0.7250, 10:56's 300:13.6K $0.7250/$0.74, 11:06's 400 $0.7250, 11:07's 100 $0.7251, and ended on 11:08's 4.5K $0.7254/98 (4.4K).
Through 11:08 a whopping 27.6K shares had been traded! Watch, below in the breakdown, what happens to the buy percentage in 10 short minutes and what price range and VWAPs do from then on.
11:09-11:18, after two no-trades minutes, stepped lower on 11:11's 2.3K $0.7203/51 (100), 11:13's 75K (blks of 24.1K & 48.9K $0.72) $0.7203/00, 11:15's 51.6K (incl 50K $0.72 blk) $0.72/$0.7180, and the period ended on 11:18's 200 $0.7180/70.
11:19-12:52 began a long extremely low/no-volume $0.7170/81, with a slowly rising range, on 11:19's 200 $0.7170. At 11:36 range became $0.7180/$0.7205, 12:15 $0.7180/$0.7246, 12:29 back down to $0.7180/$0.72, 12:48 $0.7180/96, and the period ended on 12:52's 12.2K $0.7180/$0.72.
12:53-13:34, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume, until near the period end, fall on 12:55's 8.2K $0.717/8. Then 12:56's 100 hit $0.7110, 13:27's 100 hit $0.71, and the period ended on 13:34's 6.6K $0.7005.
13:35-15:50 did a few low-volume $0.7005/$0.71 minutes beginning with 13:35's 3.3K $0.7005/$0.71. B/a at 13:35 was 4K:3.6K $0.7005/99 (MMs jiggling both sides). Change came on 13:39's 43.5K $0.7042/79/42/86/42/79/43/80/90/74/61/$0.71/$0.7005/$0.7142//$0.7005, which began extremely low/no-volume $0.7005/$0.7141, with falling highs. B/a at 13:47 was 4.8K:800 $0.7005/$0.7141, 14:12 1.3K:2.7K $0.7050/$0.7140. 14:12's 11.5K $0.7005/$0.714 kicked off the very slow decline in the highs. At 14:27 the highs were down to $0.71, and only a couple minutes even touched that high. B/a at 14:29 was 500:2.7K $0.7050/$0.7129 (offers falling), 14:43 300:1.3K $0.7050/90, 14:56 1.1K:1.8K $0.7050/83 (offers falling). High was $0.7082 by 15:02. B/a at 15:07 was 3.9K:200 $0.7055/80, 15:12 500:500 $0.7055/75, 15:19 300:800 $0.7055/70, 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer). The period ended on 15:50's1.8K $0.706/7.
15:51-15:59, after three no-trades minutes, began mostly low-volume, but for 15:55's ~30K $0.7070/50/06, $0.7006/$0.7149 on 15:54's 7.1K $0.7142/23/40/47/23/49/23/22/ ... 24/25/23/ ... 23/26/27/28/23/50/$0.7070. B/a at 15:56 was 300:1K $0.7006/$0.7149, 15:59 4.3K:400 $0.7100/50. The period and day ended on 15:59's $0.7149/00/ ... $0.7100/01/00, giving the official close of $0.71 because there was no MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 16 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 212,844, 55.33% of day's volume, with a $0.7178 VWAP. For today's volume, the count seems reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is excessive. yesterday's was also high - 40.91% - and also had a large count, 18. Like yesterday, but not as tight, the VWAP is close to the day's $0.7158 - but 2/10ths above instead of 1/100th above the day's VWAP.
As with yesterday, I suspect it's likely a lot of the day's short percentage (see below) was a result of most of the larger trades.
As with yesterday, I suspect this is MMs taking care of "good customers".
On my minimal chart a big FAIL! was yesterday's { ... we see an engulfing bearish candle, suggesting more downside, on rising volume, suggesting strength in today's move. However, this is one time I'll go against the volume suggestion of strength. Because of what I observe intra-day, I believe what we saw in the volume was the exit, for now, of folks badly wanting to get out and the volume today was the equivalent of capitulation. So we might see the weakness gone for a few days or, more likely, much less weakness than the volume is suggesting, allowing the possibility of a small, weak rise. }
What we got was more downside, with lower OLHC on rising volume. We got one potential break - a pause at my $0.70 hoped-for pause or possible reversal point. We hit $0.7005 and held above that, even recovering above it, but weakly, after it was hit. Unfortunately, going into the close we neared it again, $0.7006, and were fortunate to get a close at $0.71.
Topping off my miserable projection, I also said { So I expect a typical consolidation behavior with substantially reduced volume and little price (VWAP is what I key on) movement. }
Well, rising volume and VWAP down ~2% is not "typical consolidation behavior".
The only thing I got right was { ... and so $0.70 rather than the $0.66 seems like the near-term most likely pause ... I'm still holding to that near-term view. }
The fast EMA continued to move lower, along with the slow EMA.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit continued descending. Meanwhile the upper limit flipped from descending, but at a reducing rate, to marginally rising. The mid-point is still moving lower due to the lower limit's faster rate of change. Trading range abandoned be wrapped solidly around the mid-point and had a good portion of day's range below the mid-point.
All this makes me think the $0.70 pause will not be a reversal point and $0.66 will be the next potential stop. Recall that potential support is as yet untested.
However, considering that I'm often, and recently, wrong, don't be surprised if it turns out I was just a day early!
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA stopped, after three days, rising and began falling. It also crossed below the 20-day, putting all SMAs declining and "in the proper order". This is quite negative.
If we hold here we'll get two more days of decline before a pause and then continuous descent. The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 20-day would continue to decline 8 (now, was 9) more days, t. use and then continue declining. The 50 would decline again 38 more days and the 200 maybe 190 days (visual estimate).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had everything but MFI (untrusted by me) weakened. MFI was the only thing above neutral. Nothing was yet oversold.
Today all but momentum weakened, with MFI (untrusted by me) joining the crowd. Momentum marginally strengthened. Nothing is yet oversold, although several are just a smidgen above that condition. Sans a price recovery all are likely to become so.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6888 and $0.7849 ($0.6937 and $0.7847 yesterday), are slightly diverging as the lower limit declines more quickly than the upper limit.
All in, nothing positive here. Contrarians could key on two consecutive days of rising volume a rapidly declining VWAP (and/or OLHC) and figure a reversal must now come.
I'm not in that camp.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, at leasdt "normal" again, but both are below the desired ranges - short percentage marginally (a positive indication?) and buy percentage just marginally above the all-time low, since I began tracking 8/1/2014, of 19.54%.
The spread contracted slightly, offering hope that the descent is going to abate soon, but it's still too wide to believe the descent will cease tomorrow.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held at 18 negatives and 6 positives for the second day. Change since 12/12 is -$0.2235, -23.79%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0902%, -1.0431%, -1.0029%, -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, and -0.5381%. We have a bad consistent trend going on these.
All in, the low short percentage and slightly narrowing spread offer hope the descent is nearly over, but I think that would be a risky bet as the buy percentage is still in descent, at absurdly low levels too, and the move down is on rising volume.
I hold at consolidating with a negative bias.
Bill
I'm holding at consolidating with a negative bias. We did pause at my hoped-for $0.70 (we got $0.7005) point. The possibility exists that we reverse from here, but nothing else but low short and buy percentages and narrowing spread in my unconventional stuff supports this. Those are not strongly suggesting that - everything is just marginally suggesting the possibility.
All the conventional TA says otherwise.
Today was a typical open high, go higher, flat for a while and then a rapid fall, flat, fall more, flat, and finally do a weak rise into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 200:20 $0.7160/$0.7336 (offers backed by presented $0.75 x 50, $0.75 x 48 and $0.7675 x 6.8K0.
09:30-11:08 opened the day with a 721 sell for $0.72. Then came 9:37's 8.2K $0.7497 (2.5K)/$0.7180/91/80/$0.7497 (5K)/$0.7180, 9:42's b/a 200:100 $0.7180/$0.7497, 9:48's 300 $0.7250, 9:51's 100 $0.7250, 9:52's b/a 300:100 $0.7250/$0.74, 9:59's 100 $0.74, 10:00's b/a 300:100 $0.7250/$0.74, 10:00's 100 $0.74, 10:03's 100 $0.74, 10:07's 100 $0.7250, 10:10's b/a 300:400 $0.7250/$0.74, 10:17's 200 $0.74, 10:19's b/a 400:2.2K $0.7250/$0.74, 10:30's 200 $0.74, 10:37's 100 $0.7250, 10:38's b/a 400:6.9K $0.7250/$0.74, 10:45's 700 $0.74/$0.7392 (500), 10:46's 100 $0.7250, 10:50's 100 $0.7250, 10:56's 300:13.6K $0.7250/$0.74, 11:06's 400 $0.7250, 11:07's 100 $0.7251, and ended on 11:08's 4.5K $0.7254/98 (4.4K).
Through 11:08 a whopping 27.6K shares had been traded! Watch, below in the breakdown, what happens to the buy percentage in 10 short minutes and what price range and VWAPs do from then on.
11:09-11:18, after two no-trades minutes, stepped lower on 11:11's 2.3K $0.7203/51 (100), 11:13's 75K (blks of 24.1K & 48.9K $0.72) $0.7203/00, 11:15's 51.6K (incl 50K $0.72 blk) $0.72/$0.7180, and the period ended on 11:18's 200 $0.7180/70.
11:19-12:52 began a long extremely low/no-volume $0.7170/81, with a slowly rising range, on 11:19's 200 $0.7170. At 11:36 range became $0.7180/$0.7205, 12:15 $0.7180/$0.7246, 12:29 back down to $0.7180/$0.72, 12:48 $0.7180/96, and the period ended on 12:52's 12.2K $0.7180/$0.72.
12:53-13:34, after two no-trades minutes, began an extremely low/no-volume, until near the period end, fall on 12:55's 8.2K $0.717/8. Then 12:56's 100 hit $0.7110, 13:27's 100 hit $0.71, and the period ended on 13:34's 6.6K $0.7005.
13:35-15:50 did a few low-volume $0.7005/$0.71 minutes beginning with 13:35's 3.3K $0.7005/$0.71. B/a at 13:35 was 4K:3.6K $0.7005/99 (MMs jiggling both sides). Change came on 13:39's 43.5K $0.7042/79/42/86/42/79/43/80/90/74/61/$0.71/$0.7005/$0.7142//$0.7005, which began extremely low/no-volume $0.7005/$0.7141, with falling highs. B/a at 13:47 was 4.8K:800 $0.7005/$0.7141, 14:12 1.3K:2.7K $0.7050/$0.7140. 14:12's 11.5K $0.7005/$0.714 kicked off the very slow decline in the highs. At 14:27 the highs were down to $0.71, and only a couple minutes even touched that high. B/a at 14:29 was 500:2.7K $0.7050/$0.7129 (offers falling), 14:43 300:1.3K $0.7050/90, 14:56 1.1K:1.8K $0.7050/83 (offers falling). High was $0.7082 by 15:02. B/a at 15:07 was 3.9K:200 $0.7055/80, 15:12 500:500 $0.7055/75, 15:19 300:800 $0.7055/70, 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer), 15:36 500:400 $0.7050/62 (MMs jiggling the offer). The period ended on 15:50's1.8K $0.706/7.
15:51-15:59, after three no-trades minutes, began mostly low-volume, but for 15:55's ~30K $0.7070/50/06, $0.7006/$0.7149 on 15:54's 7.1K $0.7142/23/40/47/23/49/23/22/ ... 24/25/23/ ... 23/26/27/28/23/50/$0.7070. B/a at 15:56 was 300:1K $0.7006/$0.7149, 15:59 4.3K:400 $0.7100/50. The period and day ended on 15:59's $0.7149/00/ ... $0.7100/01/00, giving the official close of $0.71 because there was no MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 16 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 212,844, 55.33% of day's volume, with a $0.7178 VWAP. For today's volume, the count seems reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is excessive. yesterday's was also high - 40.91% - and also had a large count, 18. Like yesterday, but not as tight, the VWAP is close to the day's $0.7158 - but 2/10ths above instead of 1/100th above the day's VWAP.
As with yesterday, I suspect it's likely a lot of the day's short percentage (see below) was a result of most of the larger trades.
As with yesterday, I suspect this is MMs taking care of "good customers".
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
11:08 27583 $0.7180 $0.7497 $20,254.04 $0.7343 7.17% 49.53% Incl 09:37 $0.7497 5,000 11:04 $0.7258 4,142
11:08 $0.7298 4,400
11:18 129336 $0.7170 $0.7251 $93,122.78 $0.7200 33.62% 8.71% Incl 11:13 $0.7200 24,100 48,900 11:15 50,000
12:52 52225 $0.7170 $0.7246 $37,569.47 $0.7194 13.58% 14.45% Incl 12:19 $0.7225 4,000 12:52 $0.7200 5,000
13:34 30072 $0.7005 $0.7180 $21,430.02 $0.7126 7.82% 16.63% Incl 12:55 $0.7170 6,902 13:33 $0.7101 7,600
15:50 102954 $0.7005 $0.7142 $72,907.37 $0.7082 26.76% 24.70% Incl 13:39 $0.7079 9,700 $0.7100 9,700 15,300
14:12 $0.7119 6,500 14:22 $0.7050 7,000
15:27 $0.7058 4,600
15:59 41170 $0.7006 $0.7150 $29,124.09 $0.7074 10.70% 23.89%
This don't look good Kimo Sabe!__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.00% -1.34% -2.64% 1.67% 40.90%
Prior 2.46% -2.74% 0.65% -3.49% 220.55%
On my minimal chart a big FAIL! was yesterday's { ... we see an engulfing bearish candle, suggesting more downside, on rising volume, suggesting strength in today's move. However, this is one time I'll go against the volume suggestion of strength. Because of what I observe intra-day, I believe what we saw in the volume was the exit, for now, of folks badly wanting to get out and the volume today was the equivalent of capitulation. So we might see the weakness gone for a few days or, more likely, much less weakness than the volume is suggesting, allowing the possibility of a small, weak rise. }
What we got was more downside, with lower OLHC on rising volume. We got one potential break - a pause at my $0.70 hoped-for pause or possible reversal point. We hit $0.7005 and held above that, even recovering above it, but weakly, after it was hit. Unfortunately, going into the close we neared it again, $0.7006, and were fortunate to get a close at $0.71.
Topping off my miserable projection, I also said { So I expect a typical consolidation behavior with substantially reduced volume and little price (VWAP is what I key on) movement. }
Well, rising volume and VWAP down ~2% is not "typical consolidation behavior".
The only thing I got right was { ... and so $0.70 rather than the $0.66 seems like the near-term most likely pause ... I'm still holding to that near-term view. }
The fast EMA continued to move lower, along with the slow EMA.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit continued descending. Meanwhile the upper limit flipped from descending, but at a reducing rate, to marginally rising. The mid-point is still moving lower due to the lower limit's faster rate of change. Trading range abandoned be wrapped solidly around the mid-point and had a good portion of day's range below the mid-point.
All this makes me think the $0.70 pause will not be a reversal point and $0.66 will be the next potential stop. Recall that potential support is as yet untested.
However, considering that I'm often, and recently, wrong, don't be surprised if it turns out I was just a day early!
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA stopped, after three days, rising and began falling. It also crossed below the 20-day, putting all SMAs declining and "in the proper order". This is quite negative.
If we hold here we'll get two more days of decline before a pause and then continuous descent. The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 20-day would continue to decline 8 (now, was 9) more days, t. use and then continue declining. The 50 would decline again 38 more days and the 200 maybe 190 days (visual estimate).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had everything but MFI (untrusted by me) weakened. MFI was the only thing above neutral. Nothing was yet oversold.
Today all but momentum weakened, with MFI (untrusted by me) joining the crowd. Momentum marginally strengthened. Nothing is yet oversold, although several are just a smidgen above that condition. Sans a price recovery all are likely to become so.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6888 and $0.7849 ($0.6937 and $0.7847 yesterday), are slightly diverging as the lower limit declines more quickly than the upper limit.
All in, nothing positive here. Contrarians could key on two consecutive days of rising volume a rapidly declining VWAP (and/or OLHC) and figure a reversal must now come.
I'm not in that camp.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, at leasdt "normal" again, but both are below the desired ranges - short percentage marginally (a positive indication?) and buy percentage just marginally above the all-time low, since I began tracking 8/1/2014, of 19.54%.
The spread contracted slightly, offering hope that the descent is going to abate soon, but it's still too wide to believe the descent will cease tomorrow.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held at 18 negatives and 6 positives for the second day. Change since 12/12 is -$0.2235, -23.79%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0902%, -1.0431%, -1.0029%, -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, and -0.5381%. We have a bad consistent trend going on these.
All in, the low short percentage and slightly narrowing spread offer hope the descent is nearly over, but I think that would be a risky bet as the buy percentage is still in descent, at absurdly low levels too, and the move down is on rising volume.
I hold at consolidating with a negative bias.
Bill
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