HydroPhi Technologies Group Inc. (fka HPTG)

[WealthWithoutGreed]

HPTG 6 cents per share fair value?

I'm waiting for the annual MCS-150 mileage numbers for the 2016 update. Not sure when that will happen but it could be updated before we get any financials from the company and that number will give us a good clue on revenues for 2016.

In 2015 the company reported $26.7 million in revenues on 13.2 miles driven. (Maintenance revenues are also included in the $26.7 million)

The growth in miles driven from 2014 (9.5 mill) vs 2015 (13.2 mill) was an increase of 39%.

If we assume a growth rate of less than half that for 2016-- say 15% to be conservative, then the miles driven would be approx 15 million for 2016.

New January 2017 Van Rate averages per mile are out and they show an increase. In the midwest $2.12 per mile vs. $1.82 in early 2016 & in the southeast $1.96 vs. $1.59 in early 2016. That's good news.
https://www.dat.com/resources/trendlines/van/national-rates

Also, Stern NYU industry averages have been updated last week. The trucking industry now averages .81 P/S ratio up from .73 P/S ratio in 2016. More good news.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html

If we take my estimate of a 15% increase in miles driven and apply the average van rate per mile we get 15 million miles driven for 2016 at an average of about $2 per mile (That was our average for 2015). Simple math gets you to an estimate of $30 million in revenues for 2016.

More simple math implies we should have a market cap of .81 of annual sales. Revenues at 30 mill x .81= 24 million market cap divided by ~400 million shares outstanding= $.06 fair value per share.