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Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash
By Martin Armstrong

* January 14, 2017

Analysis for the Week of January 16, 2017

We should see a trend change come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 1998763 and so far we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 1998763 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. As of the close of Thu. Jan. 12, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now with a moderate bearish undertone suggesting caution on the daily level especially since it's trading below the December 2016 high. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 1989100 and is trading up about 0.64% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 4 days, while we have made a low at 1977047 following the high established Fri. Jan. 6, 2017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 2nd at 1999963, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a significant move of 11% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 2nd has exceeded the previous high of 1844988 made back during the week of September 19th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 1788356 made the week of October 31st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains in a bearish mode right now warranting caution. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in August 2015.

The market is trading sharply some 8.38% percent above the last high 1835136 from which we did originally obtain two sell signals from that event established during May 2015. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 1561754 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. From the May 2015, this market declined into a low during August 2015 at 1537033. Right now, the market has rallied from that low and is breaking out to the upside. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well. From the low of August 2015, we have elected four buy signals. This warns that the trend is robust moving forward.



Critically, my broader analysis projection recognizes that the current trend is strong since the last important low established last August 2015, the market has rallied for the past 16 months and we have exceeded last month's high. Furthermore, the Dow Jones Industrials remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 1998763 and 1545056. Obviously, this market remains in a bullish posture broader-term with underlying support resting at the 1310420 level. Currently, this market is still trading significantly above this level by about 34%. Resistance conspicuously stands at last year's high of 1998763. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 1998763 major high established back in 2016.

On the subject of the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of December 26th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 1/2 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 9 weeks. The last weekly level low was 1788356, which formed during the week of October 31st, 2016. The last high on the weekly level was 1999963, which was created during the week of January 2nd. However, we still remain below key resistance 1996643 on a closing basis. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 16 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 1998763, which was created during December 2016.

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